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Good morning you're watching America's election headquarters in this his campaign confidential the only show on television or on the Internet.
The features only people who actually run -- worked in campaigns.
Not your normal blow creating talking -- reporters who really don't know what they're talking about.
And today our team as usual is comprised of Pat -- one of the most famous people in political consulting.
-- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- You've got me all -- I don't care -- has Iran presidential campaigns.
And has been a key advisor president Jimmy Carter and so what this show is is a look inside.
The closed rooms of Capitol Hill and the White House -- what really is going on politically.
We have a lot to discuss -- the backdrop is this debt ceiling goes where's Doug we have mentioned dogs coming result will be here -- -- on our third member of the campaign confidential team is in Washington and he's in enemy territory.
We hope to hear from Hebrew -- captured by them by -- could -- politically -- -- Israel written entry might.
America -- -- pat.
The debt ceiling negotiations.
They've gone silent as of this morning what.
Why the silence after days of press conference is diatribes.
Picking on each other suddenly -- but what's happening well.
Because they don't know what to do they're each trying to solve their political problems.
Republicans are concerned now they may be blamed.
President Obama only wants is get reelected he's I think he's he's he's he's channeling and talking this directly there.
Bill Clinton about how we.
How he dealt with the Republicans and 95 -- think you know why you think Clinton's -- I don't think he could very well be.
And another -- smaller ones would be would be smart to visit his people on a clue what they're doing and in.
And you know you have bumped.
The Democrats in congress they don't want anything -- -- him one run on Medicare well we have is everybody's carried -- -- politics and no one is take care of the country.
And they don't care -- the country goes to help her but what they're doing now is.
Backing off trying to figure now -- cut a deal -- -- because the world might come to end or we might come to an end.
They don't care the world comes -- and is that they come to an end.
Right now they'll take the easy way you wash and now joining us is our third regular member of campaign confidential Doug showed Doug good morning.
John good morning to hear your thoughts on what you're there on the ground yet where it's all happening what what is happening a what is not happening.
Well I think look I I agree with pat.
There was a grand bargain to be had back in December the president punted on the debt commission.
They're looking at polls and this is poll driven that shows the Democrats winning.
And President Obama winning the fight by fifteen to twenty points the problem with those polls is the same surveys when they say.
Republican generically against Democrat Obama the Republicans are moving up so there's a short term victory here for Obama I think.
And a longer term defeat for Obama and if we don't get this resolved what Pat Caddell said is exactly right the country will lose and everyone will -- By let's take a quick look at the president's most recent statement I think it was Friday.
I am still pushing.
For us to achieve a big deal.
But what I also -- to the group what it is if we can't do the biggest deal possible.
Then -- still be.
Ambitious what's still try to at least get a down payment.
On deficit reduction.
But you still pushing.
But the big deal -- what he has no package the president doesn't proposed anything.
He goes out there and dozens and by the way the reason he's winning on who's better remember congress when you're the president you can have a national press conference every day.
And you get to get your message out of course -- better than 530 by people who clearly don't know what they're doing.
The but the point is is that notice in that press conference.
He has no plans he offers no plans.
He's out there are seeing -- -- a big bargain.
8 he -- started December with his -- Simpson -- made right now as -- -- -- Doug you've been the biggest proponent of sensible since it came out in December.
And on Friday after the president -- he was asked some questions there.
And he was asked why you didn't incorporate some some balls and war can you summarize how he answered it for us.
Well not my my sense is that -- you know that was then this is now and I'm for it.
The problem is in politics timing is everything.
And what Pat Caddell said again absolutely right.
He's taken the generic rhetoric that we used in the mid ninety's.
To get a deal -- Newt Gingrich when I was working for President Clinton.
He's put it forward.
But he has no plans no specifics no strategy is now compared to a Republican Party that's bereft of ideas.
And is taking extreme positions.
He looks more reasonable.
But ultimately there's no substance.
And there's no.
They are there.
And the problem is is that we really want that thing that irritates me.
Is he gets up there and says that he's taken everything off the table when it comes to spending the stimulus is which is failed miserably -- spent.
Obama care which country want repealed is off the table that he wants high real spending these boondoggle program.
-- which don't produce anything but except.
Pay off interest groups for himself and people.
Those are all off the table as far as I know he's put nothing on the table so and that's of the Republicans erotic color because all they wanna do.
-- have no new revenue even -- it means not having I mean.
Protecting the worst tax loopholes in history all they would do.
A good outlook will go to the tax and go before we get to it let's put on the screen.
The Gallup poll about the US satisfaction.
This is that happiness or unhappiness of the American people today.
And we've we've got this for everybody can look at this thing if you go to the far right movement which would pushes past January 11 generates 111.
We're down to 16%.
Of the people are satisfied right -- the -- And that is about what's happened is it's down from when he said and and then look these numbers not being good forever.
We are now down to one point higher than when he took office but our President Obama took office.
And I'll tell you humor going to be beyond these numbers this is where the country it.
And do whatever they want politically but this is a good summary of the thinking of the country -- so so -- with that kind of feeling in America deep rooted pessimism.
Politically what the politicians and the two parties are telling.
And it seems to be making people more pessimists.
Well and as it should John because if you look at what's going on Washington and hot summer summarized it quite correctly.
Neither side is playing seriously everybody's playing politics.
The American people get that and what I think we're gonna see as a result which is gonna produce even more uncertainty and unhappiness.
Is that a vicious negative campaign they'll probably find a way I suspect one way or another to resolve the debt crisis in the short term.
But none of these short term financial issues relating to the deficit or our fiscal condition -- jobs are gonna be dealt with.
And we're gonna have a -- -- election that seemingly about everything but ultimately is about -- -- Say the thing that I think is that the the damage that is being done every day it is hard to measure I think the Republican.
Brand -- like the -- brand but.
They really hurt themselves with the Medicare plan of Paul Ryan that was a bad act that was another suicide well intended.
As they thought we are trying to fix -- On Obama over trying to do is we've we are we voted for what we're not gonna repeal obamacare we've debated the issue that the electorate the people -- -- -- extended to veterinarians because we want take care insurance companies and other people on our side this is the establishment about -- part of it.
But the but on the but but on Medicare thing -- let's do what we always do was convince people we wanna kill people -- an end their social security and Medicare.
-- -- -- it's the larger point.
Is that they are more on the verge of becoming the Whig Party because their base as noted -- People vote for them -- voting for Republicans big so what Obama and the Democrats and donate more Republicans that everybody for that the Washington establishment Republicans to take over what about weight in the -- got the country and doctor Doug what do you to think about something I heard one of the shows this weekend which is the Republican Party has consciously.
Now changed itself from the party of fiscal.
Used to be fiscal responsibility.
To just the party of no new taxes period that's all they care about we'd like to put on the screen while -- talking -- -- Grover Norquist acts pledge.
But what about it Doug they've they've -- all they talk about -- -- -- -- it it's no new taxes it's slash government.
It's not worth -- fiscally responsible governing.
It's no no no.
The Tea Party which.
Animates from a frustration the American people have with government.
Has led a group of congress -- about 85 to a hundred to take.
-- posture that however well meaning it may be translates into completely irresponsible.
Governance well outside the mainstream of what America would like.
And rin -- what I think their constituents were voting -- blood -- of acting out or agree with Doug -- absolutely right what is happening it.
-- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- One we have both parties taking -- Wall Street the people who looted the country they're both owned by the -- -- Democrats even with much -- the Republican.
Then you have these tax.
Norquist we'll we'll get this right pledge up you know look we just have a picture we -- literally -- -- Grover Norquist.
That this Jack Abramoff to Jack Abramoff Powell -- who is the personal -- Republican Party by the way he is the that much not deal would Muslim extremism by the way and he has always acolytes including Karl Rove and all these people who follow his -- -- apparently.
And what they're doing is but this guy's done is he said he -- one time to strangle the government and a bathtub.
-- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- Jeffrey it smoltz G -- tax breaks let's let's let's get that up on the stereo picture Jeffrey Immelt president Obama's -- chairman of the board of GE.
Which last year made fourteen.
Billion dollars in profit legally I'm not saying they didn't.
And they paid actually no federal gun or real fast no tax no tax at all right and that's the guy sitting next Obama who's ahead of Obama's job creation by the way in which who produce jobs -- these -- -- cut jobs at home and the Republicans don't want it actually helped him they were attacked.
In that would protect.
-- -- -- This is what they do they protect these.
Dug it in to see what pat is getting at is that the Democrats are protecting.
The Immelt except when it's politically expedient to talk about taking away favorable tax breaks for him in for a hedge fund operators.
Who -- something called.
Carried interest which is if they make money.
I'm one of their investments -- -- taxed at lower rates because it -- on -- capital fifty fastest -- them touch it so you know and and the American people say.
It's a -- -- bargain doesn't work.
I'm getting hurt by this I don't I don't have a job my kid can't get ahead and these Wall Street guys one way or another are getting way ahead no no doubt why there's so much cynicism and our system.
Well you know -- -- look at what dogs talking about about change.
You know I talked to Mort does suck but at a piece this week this coming out.
About the -- rolling down the real unemployment numbers they're staggering.
-- you know it weevil this economy has produced zero.
Net permanent jobs in two years.
It's produced all temporary jobs we lost 400 over 400 some thousand permanent jobs were lost last month.
Well over two months it's been almost 800 -- -- I doubt it reported a 0850000.
Permanent jobs gone -- and let me say this.
If the participation.
When Barack Obama took office 66% of the American people said the either work there were looking for work.
That figures dropped to 62.
As people who've given up right.
That's how they measure unemployment what percentage of the work force.
Wolf the workforce were still 66%.
The unemployment rate which this -- was nine point two would be 12% that's the real unemployment leave aside part people or not when making enough for.
People feel they're they're under under employed.
12% is a real unemployment number of -- -- John let let let me make a quick point on this.
I believe that the debt sale laying in the deficit are huge issues particularly -- independence.
But there's a bottom line in politics.
And the related issues that pat was talking about drives elections.
And if the president cannot do some thing to have a credible job creation strategy which so far has eluded him.
Then it is going to be very tough for him to get reelected absent a vicious negative campaign.
Or a self immolation of the Republican Party which could well happen.
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