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I've seen just a grim numbers on economic growth for the White House only yesterday playing down the danger.
Of the possibility of a second recession and double -- We do not believe that there is threat there of a double dip recession we believe that the economy will continue to grow.
The there's no question it.
-- growth has slowed over the past two quarters there's no question that job creation has slowed.
But there are reasons for that again some of them beyond our control.
But that are beginning to.
The headwinds created by them like the earthquake in Japan have.
Have subsided somewhat so there is no threat of -- felt different -- right Jeff Miron Harvard University economist and a senior fellow.
At the Cato Institute Jeff good morning to you.
Good morning is that -- -- are -- point.
I understand why they're saying that I think if they said they thought there might be a double dip there almost guarantee that we have one.
But if we look and listen to most other economists I think a large fraction of them are quite concerned we might have a double -- five of the nine members of committee that determines when recessions start and stop said just a few days ago that they thought there was at least a 5050 chance that we would end up having a double -- you.
-- -- they're the people who define it that's pretty scary.
Lawrence Summers was the top economic advisor who now works at Harvard as you know.
He wrote this in the Washington Post yesterday said the indicators suggest that the economy has at least a one in three chance of falling back in a recession.
So he's at 33% now nothing new is done to raise demand and spur growth.
He used to advise this White House is He right.
Well his and his forecast sounds very similar to the other people some of whom are his Harvard colleagues on this dating committee -- -- very consistent with private forecasters and with.
Economists across the country so everybody is very worried I think the consensus view is probably something like.
If we don't get any more bad news if nothing unusual happens well maybe we'll just gradually start to grow a little bit faster but we -- a battle oil shock we get some.
Upheaval in Europe because of a default on some what some country's debt.
Then all bets are off than the risk of a double dip is really quite certain I think that's a great point because there are land mines not just here but all over the world that we could still step on -- recession.
Officially defined by the government.
As two consecutive quarters of negative growth.
They believe it started -- late 2007 and ended in June of 2009 which is more than two years ago.
Do you believe battery of the camp that we never came out of that recession.
Well I think there's a little bit of semantics there are certainly the usual definition of recession and a recession is that the economy started to grow again has grown for a couple of quarters in a row.
And we certainly -- that.
But what's unquestionably different as we're growing at a very slow rate compared to -- need to most.
Past recessions are experience is very similar to what happens.
-- when countries have fiscal crises debt crises in those -- situations which are more rare.
And -- situation is often takes five or ten years before economy's really recover that's the point has been documented.
Are quite well by my colleague Ken -- -- so.
That's the US situation there's a serious risk is going to be several years before we really get out of -- -- -- the other thing the White House says is that this debt deal as a signal to the world that they're serious about deficit reduction.
We're about to see whether or not that is true Jeff thanks for coming in there okay Jeff Miron had a -- -- --
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