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How nice to see if there.
-- nice to see you.
Okay airport today CBO says not to expect unemployment to fall below 8% by 2014 which of course is two years beyond the 2012.
How much said that tension in the White House in the campaign for president Obama's pay attention to that report.
It's a problematic one and not just because it came from the Congressional Budget Office but because also mimics similar.
Analyses from the Federal Reserve and from the private sector there seems to be a broad consensus among economists.
That the unemployment rate today at nine point 1% is likely to be in the range of eight point 5% by Election Day.
And remember part of the drop between nine point one and eight point five is going to be because we're gonna have a large number of workers who are so discouraged and not being able to find work.
-- -- gonna drop out of the workforce altogether and therefore look like an improvement in the number.
See what I would do viral running on that -- a -- -- -- in the presence campaign -- say.
Look you know I'm running -- -- trend it is -- downward trend from nine point one or nine point two whatever whatever starting -- wonder if you want start up where we are right now.
And say that that is the direction that the country needs to go.
And that you know there's that the economy has been sluggish or all but we're on the right -- don't change horses now.
Well I'm sure that's what they're gonna probably end of trying to do the -- there are several problems with that one problem is is that.
People don't feel that we are on the right track by a huge margin approaching 61 I think we're on the wrong track.
And second of all it doesn't mash mash it was a reality as Glenn Kessler -- of all places the warship post pointed out.
If these estimates are true.
And President Obama is on the track to have the worst record as a president and the united in the history of the United States when it comes to jobs and and if -- if we have unemployment at this rate by election year in time of next year.
Then he'll be number one on one thing He doesn't want to be number one in which is the worst record on jobs.
Except and that's -- right now if we're talking about let's say in September of next year not not next and not next month but next year.
That the number is is steadily going down I don't know that it is I certainly hope that no one is going down.
But I think at that point it becomes effective light it's -- lousy argument right now I mean -- be in big trouble right now.
Well look at it in first of all if it we all hope that every American who wants to get a job can get a job.
But if it's eight point 5% next year the difference between nine point one and eight point five is not going to be particularly good predicted especially if you look inside the CBO report.
And see they're projecting anemic economic growth.
Through not only 2011.
But 2012 and 2013 as well effect they think that economic growth might get worse -- 2013.
Because remember the bush tax cuts expire at the end of 2012.
So they see economic growth slowing even further in 2013.
And here's the other thing.
If you're Barack Obama and his political team in Chicago and in the west wing of the White House.
You cannot be happy with the fact that the last president you know we've -- reelected a president since 1936.
Who had unemployment at seven point 2% or higher.
And the woman who had unemployment at that rate was Ronald Reagan and to set in 1984 the problem for the Obama administration is is it.
President Reagan had economic growth rates in these latter quarter of two is 1983.
And throughout 1984 well in -- two and three times the amount of economic growth.
This being anticipated for the coming a year and a half so.
He had a much more robust growing economy which made people feel better if we have anemic growth plus unemployment essentially where we are today is not gonna -- a much better.
See I think that a slight decline -- a direction going down unemployment is -- -- but I had the problem that I don't understand if I were running his PR his campaign right now.
The last thing I -- doing is vacation at a very a -- place like Martha's Vineyard.
I am at the Wisconsin -- worry you know or if Israel lucky enough really go on vacation and left them on the Wisconsin -- -- -- -- much more -- American or radio than it does sort of the though and very expensive unclaimed Martha's -- I think that PR problem.
Is gonna resonate far more than than it if they don't with the numbers are going -- -- I think he's in better shape over the numbers going down the the PR.
Well I think I think the -- is wrong to you know it's interesting our fox colleague.
Literally told President Clinton in 1993 and 1994.
You can't go to Martha's -- because you know people don't like seeing you with the swells up there on.
Martha's Vineyard you need to go.
Vacation in the American west which He did for two years but I don't begrudge any president vacation having been inside the White House understand what kind of pressures are under -- they're allowed to go someplace where they can relax for at least part of the day.
In every -- takes the white house with him wherever He goes.
But I think you're right the idea of you know sort of the -- sit being you know -- on Martha's Vineyard just doesn't doesn't comport well with what of our ordinary Americans are facing in their lives.
See I think image really matters like it you know.
That that He that He said I'm gonna give the jobs report after I come back residents are slipping it -- -- the press office a lot of facts about the me is that could tell everybody and then He goes off to a very elite place.
I think that's a bad image station on vacation but about a running this PR I've been -- so -- want -- -- -- like you can have a ten year.
Well it's not only.
The PR machine look the reason that He waited until he's gonna wait until September to lay out his jobs plan as you -- I have one today.
And and if you look at the -- -- shop as the White House and he's lost the head of the National Economic Council -- -- that -- You know he's recently replaced Larry Summers would Gene Sperling is -- pretty bright guy.
He's lost they had and they council of economic advisors you know he's being but -- it briefed on the -- on the jobs plan by sort of level three guy from the from the White House staff during his vacation it's not just a PR -- the president is way behind the power curve in fact that's turning out to be.
Pretty persistently a problem over the last year.
For President Obama has that he's always behind events whether it's internationally or domestically.
He tends to be behind events and this one's gonna hurt him I think badly I think the impression of all I'm off to my vacation LC in September I'll tell you then what.
What what what my jobs plan as has a -- form and so will the composition the jobs plan itself.
If it is simply we're gonna extend unemployment compensation we're gonna renew the payroll tax holiday.
All of which are affected JPMorgan have a right to civil way to make is that supposed to grow jobs -- haven't done too well doing that this year.
-- I -- one little slightly different -- -- of what you just said terms of the people they said that left them.
I actually think that looks good for him because the 2% unemployment.
Yeah I think -- clean slate I think the president should even be very dramatic about it and say here's my new team the last team welded and does so well.
We'll look -- and that made that that may be you know unfairness to the members of the team because we never really know.
What they advocated we do know that Christine Romer the former head of the council economic advisors.
And Jared Bernstein the former and economic advisor to Vice President Biden.
Where the two people who put their names on a document issued on January 10 of 2009 it said.
If we pass a stimulus unemployment will top -- 8% by the end of the summer of 2009.
And by this time in 2011 would be at six point 2%.
You've seen the graph that shows.
You know the line -- unemployment would be if we didn't do anything a lower line if we pass a stimulus bill.
And the reality is we got a higher unemployment than they forecast even if we didn't do anything.
And didn't pass the 862 billion dollar stimulus bill so those two people got their names on a document.
The rest of the people we don't know where they were but you're right and president sometimes needs to make a sacrifice of his people and -- the American people clean slate.
Gonna start again new team different ideas we'll see if that happens in September I doubt it from what we've seen thus far in the newspapers.
About what they've leaked just as might be part of this plan when you got the when you got Jay Carney.
Standing up in the white house press room and saying extending unemployment compensation will create jobs you gotta wonder if these people really do get.
I got an activated then of course but those -- you say may have advised a present there's something out there haven't -- very ineffective Begin to change course because the course it has been -- as it happened to particularly effective so at whatever but I could be dead horse -- that are now.
I'm lying just I just did Greta you do I did.
Okay wait yeah I -- well island that Bill O'Reilly it's just getting.
There -- -- -- in real trouble.
I out of your -- out an article I'm on Wall Street -- going to be in the print edition tomorrow in which you credit this -- not cracked and some -- speaker Boehner with really taken it command of the legislative agenda.
To the extent Aaron did to at the expense -- the president.
Explain your PO.
Well it's this piece in the Wall Street Journal Thursday morning on line tonight is it I was driven by the fact that look.
Very rarely is the speaker of the house the political sun around which the president of the United States rotates.
But think back over the last year it's the speaker Boehner who has set the terms of the debate and it is it and the outcomes have been more reflective of speaker Boehner priorities.
Than they have the president's and it started even before it became speaker in the lame duck session last year.
You'll remember President Obama said I want to end the tax cuts for wealthy Americans -- top two brackets.
And it's it's vital that we use this to make you wealthy Americans.
Pay their fair share and at the end of the debate it was -- who had set the theme of it's not the time when we go -- high joblessness and -- economic growth.
Two to raise taxes on anybody who won the day and if you look at the battles over spending.
And the battle over over the debt ceiling vote it is Boehner who is -- the president towards his direction.
And now even in the fall the pre it is it is it is speaker Boehner who said you need to send -- those trade agreements which have been languishing on.
On your desk and now present Obama's even beating up the congress for not having yet.
Pass the trade agreements which He is the as yet.
To send up to congress for their consideration so.
I -- this piece is about that you know we're gonna shortly have returning to abortion the politician who's done more than anyone else to shape the national agenda in Washington this year.
And it's not President Obama it is.
Speaker John Boehner.
Not take away the speaker -- but -- take -- I actually it was slightly different version that.
I think it's that Tea Party that has shape the national agenda I'm not -- -- who knows what speaker Boehner would have done.
But it's a Tea Party and the people they have elected -- -- really -- the feet to the fire of the Republican Party.
I'm so curious.
What we would -- you know wouldn't would speaker Boehner have done the same.
But for the influence of the Tea Party within his party.
All I think He would because look banners in the stakes are life.
For example He has never been in favor of earmarks she considers -- corrosive and -- -- and has never -- never sought and would never wanna have an -- mark for his district.
That's that's if that's sort of been Tea Party before Tea Party was cool so I think the Tea Party at times has strength invaders hands.
And -- sometimes it's weakened Nader's hands and I think it's a testament to his leadership that over the course of the year he's taken.
The the voice of the House Republican Caucus if you will and embodied in policy -- as one of the points that I make in the peace.
I was struck by commented banner made in a private dinner I attended in Texas -- thank -- was Boehner.
I a couple from Fort Worth and me having a -- -- banner in a restaurant.
On -- -- He was campaigning in Texas and didn't have anybody me with and -- talked about how and the current house representatives then led by speaker Pelosi.
-- only 45 people matter the speaker the majority leader the majority whip the rules committee chairman.
And the chairman of the committee of whatever item they were discussing and everybody else -- matter.
And He said that is not how the founders intended the House of Representatives the people's -- operate.
And He said it was a lot of passion and we've seen this as as as he's been speaker he's been attempting to have.
You know -- to make certain that the that the that the Republican conference.
Represents the will of the house that He -- ceded power to committee chairman to do actual work there He -- and He is that He is in it basically emboldened.
And and encouraged.
Other young ambitious Republican leaders and any -- any is not.
Rewarded members by given a -- marks are threatened with retaliation He doesn't like the former.
And the second is not in his nature as a result these three things have caused him to be a stronger leader not a -- -- has -- one of the great paradoxes give up power.
And get more influence as a result.
Of -- talking -- today did some research.
And in the last five days where at every time practically of the -- rove comes up.
It comes up for about a -- that you made about Governor Sarah Palin what is it about Sarah Palin Governor Sarah Palin that if anyone says -- name.
It -- is someone like Q is that it just explodes is that the media said governor -- or what is -- is that Karl Rove.
All of Donald that's Governor Palin look the head of of grassroots organization on her behalf in Iowa said roughly the same thing I did which is not know on any inside information it looks -- -- like.
A -- this fell on -- and to me that she is more likely to be a candidate the things that she's doing and I was showing up at the Iowa state fair.
Running this ad -- I'm looking for to be back there on September 3.
That attending a big rally on September 3.
All signaled to me that she's likely to be more and more likely to be a candidate at some point have never said she's gonna declare on the third.
But I said this schedule looks more like the schedule somebody wants a -- -- some celebrity.
Why isn't -- -- testified.
I'm mystified and look she is all set about -- -- -- somehow trying to sabotage -- can't as sabotage or in some way.
And that how dare I -- speculate on -- future look if she doesn't wanna be speculated about as a -- potential presidential candidate.
There's an easy way to end speculation simply say I'm not run it.
But instead every time she pops up in the public -- like she did.
On CNN on at the Iowa state fair short a number of days ago she said I haven't made a decision I'm just speculating that the kind of schedule she's keeping.
Leads me to believe -- it's more likely than not.
She's going to be candidate not set I wouldn't bet a lot of money on it because I think it's a close thing and I and I'm not privy to earth thought making process.
But it is a sign of enormous -- skin.
That if we speculate about her she gets upset and I suspect if we didn't speculate about her she'd be upsetting trying to find a way to get -- to speculate about so.
I can't -- I don't know it's governor -- Arnott -- -- I think about that I was really reflect on the fact that the media is you mention the name governor Haley no matter what you what you -- -- Governor Palin had a I have no idea whether whether she is as even knows -- -- so she knows that they said something about -- but.
Why it what is it about governor -- on that even the media can't let go back.
Yeah well first -- -- I do assume she'd she'd see when you winner when Sarah pac issues a statement.
I assume that governor -- and authorize a statement so she knew exactly what Sarah pac was gonna say but I don't know I don't compact.
Oh yeah yeah that's for that's for that's where her comment came from was a statement put out about -- like the look.
She's a big she's a potentially big factor in the presidential election if she were to get in she'd be a contender as they say she was the vice presidential nominee in 2008.
She maintains a following.
There -- they're people who want area and there are some people who would be deeply concerned if she did could she be the end of their.
Into their ranks but she's a player and so if she doesn't want to be speculated about then and the speculation by -- by saying I'm not gonna be a candidate until then.
I just recommend she might get a slightly thicker skin because if she's got this -- -- -- skin now.
When people are saying well I think she might be a candidate what kind of what how she got to react if she does get into the campaign and gets the scrutiny that every presidential candidate does -- I mean.
That -- that's not going to be a pretty -- if she's if she's a thin skin in the in the fray as she is on the edges of.
-- admits its air traffic I don't know anything about -- -- whether she wrote it or whether pack better or not but they acted it is just so extraordinary.
That I don't get it -- -- you know it.
I -- our -- -- man how are now just mention Ameren says she's Philip contender it's a most unusual sort of political.
-- -- story.
Now well and like it came from -- pack and I you know I assume -- that sense it's a small group of people who run the pack and runner her operation I assume that.
That that she was aware that there are gonna go out there and say things in her name.
Sarah pac that that basically said don't speculate about me and if you are -- an establishment elitist.
-- would -- inside information and I mean I just thought was a very odd way to react.
And and and and frankly you know okay fine.
If you don't want us to speculate about you don't be doing the things you're doing by got by showing up as a surprise.
Appearance at the Iowa state fair and running a television -- and I'm looking forward to being back in Iowa and then go on a speaking of big rally in Iowa I thought the part of that was she wanted to get more attention to herself but I guess.
I guess that's I guess that's wrong I guess she wanted less attention so she did those -- I don't know it's -- weird.
Very I -- she could she get the nomination.
-- you know an idea is she's very yes.
Sure sure she could you can you can find a path to get there it could she be a player absolutely would she be a big influence in Iowa let's -- about it if she were not interested in being a candidate.
Why does -- -- -- back to Iowa she premiered her.
Film and Iowa.
She took and did a couple stops on her book tour and Iowa at the very beginning ever booked a tour she went there and talked about -- -- showed up at the Iowa state fair she was the premier speaker last year at their fundraising dinner and flew in September of last year.
And she's -- back there -- speak at a Tea Party rally on the third of September.
I'm sure there are a lot of other states in the union where she could previewed -- film.
Conducted -- as -- launched her book tour.
And and spoken to -- Tea Party event during Labor Day 2011 but it's Iowa which ironically enough is.
The first contest in the Republican presidential sweepstakes the caucuses the first week of February so.
If she doesn't want if she doesn't want people speculated she might be a presidential candidate she sure got a -- -- funny way of going about killing the speculation.
Should argue would you say that governor Perry and governor Romney are courting her right now for her influence.
-- anybody who.
Anybody who's smart would be courting her and -- -- people absolutely.
In the event she doesn't run she can she can be if she can be a big influence if she decides to endorse them.
Proud they can't.
You bet thank you.
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