GOP 2012 Landscape: Who's the Best Bet?
Karl Rove on the shift in momentum in the GOP race, Obama and fiery rhetoric, Christie, Cain and more
- Duration 15:36
- Date Sep 29, 2011
Karl Rove on the shift in momentum in the GOP race, Obama and fiery rhetoric, Christie, Cain and more
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I can I better hold on because -- more twists turns it upside down the name roller -- now it's mr.
Two weeks ago He was almost an asterisk in the GOP nomination race and right now.
Governor carrying governing rather and governor Romney a better look out because Herman Cain is Sergey could put both have you and He is rare -- -- But of course even that can change.
Politics are so full of surprises for advise your President Bush Karl Rove is here to go on record convening power and -- what a difference said this week Herman Cain is surging a lot of enthusiasm.
I had a good debate performance and He won the Florida straw poll on and gave them some attention and notoriety.
We should be very careful about reading too much and of these polls that they're -- two stories in the fox poll one -- Herman Cain has moved up the other story is Rick -- -- down.
And we shouldn't be reading too much and either want on this race is gonna go back and forth and up and down.
Until people get ready to vote people are looking at this contest and a different way they're judging and almost like they would it'll you know Olympic diving contest.
President than the normal presidential contest where they pick somebody stay with them and if they make mistakes they.
Give them an excuse and you know in this -- -- is being treated a lot differently.
Well what does it does seem that he's getting a lot a lot of enthusiasm -- -- obviously an -- be the nominee -- -- -- -- numbers are going to be tomorrow but I certainly have got enough of a sense reading newspapers across the country and -- -- of people that He has connected at least for the moment.
Meanwhile you mentioned governor Rick Perry He is -- huge problems that.
He had a horrible comment to many Republicans about having heart and -- illegal immigration plus He has the add the opt out part of the vaccine.
So that was there's a game some troubles up he's certainly -- hit He has some rough spots.
-- I frankly think almost.
More than any specific thing that He said was the way -- The third -- expectations were you know the first debate was okay second debate expectations were that He should improve and He didn't.
Expectations on the third debate was that He needed to improve and He got much worse -- in two or three very dreadful answers.
So resident even a specific comment and I do think the immigration comment heard him.
I think it was actually the truth.
That the tone and how well He handle questions and and again that's the bad as there's also some good news in this again I go back to the analogy of this is like eight Olympic diving trial and the and we flip up the score cards at the end of each debate in raiding each one of them.
And it is possible it would entirely possible for governor Perry to come back you will need to have a very good set of debate performances in October.
He can't have a so so debate and a good debate he's gonna have to really good debates.
And it also has to show a good fundraising number here on October 15 and -- He comes from a big -- he's raised a lot of money for his governor's races a lot of money from the Republican Governors Association will probably be able post pretty good number.
But isn't as significant demand is by the fact that I realize how different each day can be in this Politico was season.
Isn't that significant that are mr.
Herman Cain who doesn't have the huge money doesn't have a huge machine.
And has says says and they won the Florida's drop Paul and he's getting a lot of attention by people and at least for the moment He seems to connect with the voters and at least some people might says some people might appreciate his 999 has been a very -- simplified way at looking at taxes.
Which is something that really runs a lot of Republicans the wrong way.
Look this -- do you -- touched on the good points again though I would make the point that.
Until we start seeing him moving in these early states like it and like Iowa New Hampshire South Carolina.
And we see some durability -- -- remember we what we've been through this exercise a couple of times already this season we had the Michelle Bachmann won now a straw poll and jumped in the polls and now has dwindled away.
We had governor Perry come in and -- and jumped to a commanding lead.
And now on the fox poll has fallen back into second place I suspect -- likely see the same thing -- Herman -- because He had a really good debate performance.
Won the Florida straw polls a matter will be three weeks.
Until -- next -- between the the Florida straw poll and the next debate.
And during that time will will turn our attention to two different things one -- What everybody reports in terms of money.
How and that's going to be a measure how well they're -- and as second -- whether or not anybody gives a substantive policy speech between now and the next debate.
The draws attention otherwise it's going to be a humdrum the data back and forth the day today and the only way -- Herman Cain can affect his numbers there is to make a mistake which.
I'm sure he's not gonna make.
I so I'm meanwhile all the attention is on the look at some lives ended the bad performance by governor Perry and the surge but I am -- mr.
There's the added that it seems like a lot of people that serve as a -- as some of the noise is governor Romney but then today.
Some embraced him on this whole idea of the mandate and He was quoted He says that He receiving -- governor around -- -- in a mandate was a quote conservative idea.
At what point if any point.
Health care in Massachusetts or his statements about a -- A conservative idea this mandate do those statements ever come back to haunt him in the primary season.
Well look -- the president has already said this any number of times in fact as recently as.
The bus trip last month the president was saying all we did in Washington is what they did in Massachusetts.
Look -- a governor Romney has a choice she gets either have a debate with President Obama about.
How his plan is different than president obamas -- used to have a debate with fellow Republicans over the issue if I were him I'd be having the debate with president.
Obama now -- started to say to have that debate earlier this month when He was on.
South Carolina senator Jim dement and He set a little bit I think in the third debate where started to describe some of the differences between.
Massachusetts and Washington but -- to debate that is.
Better for him to have sooner rather than later and it's a better friend the debate with President Obama than it is to have a debate with.
Eight Republicans in on the stage -- some debate if someone.
-- -- -- president Obama's name and today in your op Ed piece -- looks like a game a little advice on how He can run and Darren I didn't win reelection what -- to offer positive uplifting vision.
That was a strategy of 2008 accorded tear up -- The other choice was defeating the democratic base red meat do I explain that.
Well versed on not given him advice if I was given him advice He would be -- -- and anyway I'm just describe ice -- in restaurant once in a contest yeah I got that but I want to be clear because otherwise.
I'll get some emails as a Marty got from people who are -- giving President Obama advised.
Well I'm just commenting on -- on the on the -- the options available to them.
I think the wiser course for him would have been to say what is it that I need to lay out in the way -- -- positive agenda that allows me bolsters stoke the enthusiasm of Democrats and more importantly.
Reach out to this swing voters who are upset with me and are up for grabs in this election.
President Obama has is planned dumb politics He has made -- -- he's made He made the assumption operating on the assumption that is principal problem -- -- Democrats.
His principal problem is with people like young voters.
Whose approval rating has dropped thirty points for with the with him.
It's with independent and college educated voters it's was women.
It's with Latinos those five groups have moved away from the president by big margins since that time they got -- -- And they were all all critical to his election in 2000 and -- eight.
And and the kinda things he's doing now with class warfare and attacks on Republicans in these ridiculous straw man arguments like when He said.
The Republicans all they wanna do is closed down the government return everybody's money and the regulation and tell everybody they are on their own and that's not the way of America I haven't heard of a single Republican say that.
But the president goes out -- it -- it in San Jose he'll announce similar Republicans would cripple America.
-- had a rhetoric turns off the independents and the college educated voters and young people and Latinos and women who are so critical Lou is election victory.
And and and he's doing this because He thinks he's got a -- -- during problem when Democrats He really doesn't.
-- take a look at this.
In a match up with the governor Romney.
Today Barack Obama carries 88% -- Democrat 85% of Democrats and against governor Perry.
88% of Democrats now He can do better but not a whole heck of a lot better those are pretty good numbers for where we find ourselves.
At this point in the race.
And if I were him I would be worried about those people He can get them back easily I'd be worried about the swing voters.
And instead he's adopting language and tactics and approach they're gonna turn him off.
Women why we're outfit does it say He should -- the democratic base because I would think He would just do the Amazon's and -- locked and if if are not help Obama I would turn out -- and.
Yeah I know I did say should say -- my city's got two strategies one is a positive and optimistic vision which would have the effect of reenergize in the Democrats.
And allowing them to go after the swing voters.
Or the other strategy which he's adopted which is feed the red meat to the democratic donors in the moveon.org kindly a kind of people.
And that kind of stuff -- hill hill marginally reenergize him but He will do so I leave an impression about -- -- the class warfare and maybe over the top and angry rhetoric can do this -- -- not a uniter that will linger among the swing voters and will hurt him and his ability to bring them into his camp.
It's like he's sort of like acting like look I could say these outrageous things and makes a left wingers really happy.
But all of the people are up for grabs an election who really.
Voted for Republicans and -- -- intent after voted for Democrats in 06 and -- They are listening it all there will never hear this stuff.
Baloney they're here and at their list and it and they'll remember it.
It'll make -- that much more difficult for the president to Piven and somehow one day say oh I'm I'm a different guy that I bid for the last six or seven or eight months.
Remember we had this without gore He was like angry Al Gore and in his populist Al Gore and it was conciliator Al Gore.
People -- it damaged its credibility the president is running the risk of doing that here and I think is actually.
Done himself -- grave risk by the pattern of the last six day weeks.
I -- any idea how big the swing voter group is number one and number two what is their main issue.
Well look they did it depends on how you define a but I I think that the war we're talking about here is we are talking about potentially.
As much as a fifth or more or a quarter of the electorate which is a big chunk.
Particularly when you talk about independent voters and what their issues are the interesting thing if you look inside the data -- attitude what's concerning them as the economy.
Deficits and debt spending and the Affordable Care Act and the tone in Washington.
And each of these against each of the four policy instances they look more like Republicans.
Then they do Democrats and the tone they hold the president a responsible.
He's the president who led them to believe He would not be the president.
Of red states or Blue States but in the United States and this angry class warfare tone is much at odds with what He was doing in 2000.
In light where the voters stand and then the different policies of the different Republican cans and the present the president has an enormous amount of money it's expect is that a lot of money going into this set.
The into the general cut campaign can you room but it can you win win the big fat war chest an instant can be so destructive to your opponent and so.
Positive towards yourself that that money becomes -- so much more important than message.
Money allows you do to convey a message and yet that does matter look for example.
In North Carolina in 2008.
President Obama outspent.
John McCain I think it was like a you know to better than 21 in Indiana I think it was like seven to one Virginia better than 21.
And as a result He was able to carry -- Traditionally Republican states the last time Indiana Virginia voted for a Democrat for president 1964.
Last time North Carolina did so 1976.
And yet Obama had this huge cash advantage.
In the fall of 2008 that allowed him to just overwhelm the defenses of of John McCain and money itself doesn't help doesn't do it all you have to be strong good message and He had a strong messages in which was only going to be a different kind of candidate.
Who's gonna bring the country -- change the tunnel portion.
I'm upset with the deficits of the bush shares a -- cut taxes for everybody who makes less than 250000 dollars year.
And interestingly enough the second most widely displayed out of the Obama campaign.
In battleground states in the fall 2008 was an ad that says government run health care extreme exclamation point close quote.
-- they developed a different tone as a centrist that He is governed and since he's governed from the far left.
I governor Christie I actually believe he's not gonna Roddy said no so many times but that doesn't seem like the drama stops every newspaper every game pick up a newspaper in every -- says well you still hasn't made up his mind.
Do you wanna get into this Bhutto game is in Iran are not and -- should make.
Well look first of all I don't out I don't know whether general runner not because on the one hand He said last night.
And go look at politically got a minute 53 -- and I will never run and then when He got that very heartfelt question from the woman.
He said the onassis' you know you have to be insane not to be moved by that.
So I mean if if He was gonna say if He was -- -- definitively say I'm not run and He could have said so easily -- satellite He did so -- -- Politico answer.
Look at political see what -- see the tape of what I've said so I think he's still thinking about it but whether or not He runs I don't know.
He's got a very limited time -- to jumpin and shooting -- in -- that that's up to him.
If He does jumpy and I think it it jingles and contest in interesting ways.
And whether He wins or not I think it ends up making the Republican candidate stronger ironically enough better that -- the better this field at the top.
The better the nominee becomes because here she has to engage in it and a strong campaign over a sustained period of time and you know sort of like you know.
The good things roll out the right you know the strongest personal rise to the top but -- you know I don't know winter's gonna run or not and but I think we'll know the answer pretty darn quick.
Well I I can't help but notice -- -- mirror image of President Obama in terms of experience on issues like like jobs neither one has handle -- had a history of of creating jobs.
And both of them are quite dense that it's made an inspiring to listen to -- -- or and that it so I'm not I'm not so sure that they're so -- given a different politics but in terms of what they present to the voters -- -- -- -- -- -- All I think that.
There's a big difference when name in the way that they speak who had Chris Christie speaks from the heart not from a teleprompter and he's a straight shooter -- I mean there's no artifice with this guy which is why we're.
When the effect is normally gets.
I think the effect that's created a -- Republicans are dazzled by -- governor Christie and Democrats are dazzled by as President Obama.
Well I think it was Democrats were dazzled by President Obama not certain I think that whole act is worn a little -- but you're right.
Have seen him he's become a folk hero -- -- the Internet has made this an author and social media made this in part possible case you can go to the -- They catch anyone of the town hall meetings where He is confronted by union protesters or state government employees any.
And He speaks you know passionately -- straightforward from -- us from his heart about.
The taxpayers of New Jersey what they deserve to have this part of the policy debates so.
You know I think you're right idiocy Christie's style is one -- -- -- I want him a lot of admiration.
Progress -- thank you sir.
You know -- Greta thank you.