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Comments say -- great to see you are you still doing announced that it don't work is still -- is okay.
I and it really is only poll loads very early and it's -- national polls not -- not New Hampshire but tell me mr.
Herman -- lenient 27%.
It for full I think -- -- I'm highlights real clear politics idea of averaging together the recent poll -- give you -- better sense of what actually happened and sort of gets rid of the out flyers people who are either poles that are there overemphasize of the under its size -- -- candidate.
If you look at their average it's Mitt Romney at 23.
-- -- twenty.
Gingrich and pollinate and if we if you look inside it looks like.
As of Perry declines came rises.
And begins -- in Florida.
It was the after the due to poor debate performance by appearing in the McCain wins the straw poll and it's continued since then.
Now whether or not it's gonna continue to continue.
And who we don't know.
Herman Cain needs to get his campaign focused on the campaign and not book sales.
But he's -- but his book and I thought -- rent trip of his book sales.
Is that it was part of his campaign strategy for episode we don't know what -- Betsy might get way to get the word -- this is who I am of this liability.
He spent it would it would have to respect He had for stops in Texas I don't think that's you know it's not an early primary in March -- He eat what he's been full day in Texas today He was in western Tennessee which doesn't do doesn't vote until at least march He -- -- Get his bus to Iowa.
New Hampshire South Carolina Florida and Nevada if He doesn't break through there and an end to break through there you got to show up particularly in the first three.
They have a very keen sense of their role in this and they expect you to show up and if you're not campaigning actively in those states one on one.
It's it's going to be a problem for.
-- to make an abundant amount of sense beyond this sort of curious about the -- that He is improving without what I whatever strategy is his numbers are -- and realized this is a national and I realize that there's weren't -- Remember -- four years ago at this very day.
It was Rudy Giuliani at thirty.
Fred Thompson don't want -- John McCain -- thirteen Mitt Romney and eleven.
And Mike Huckabee at six Huckabee was camped out and Iowa and as a result won Iowa.
And vaulted onto the national stage and by the time we got around to voting the two front -- Fred Thompson regionally Judy -- were nowhere to be seeing.
And so that good that's a cautionary lesson for for Herman K.
To that look he's got he's being given a gift and the question is whether he's gonna take that gift and -- muted in this something more durable.
And and and been on a bus tour in west Tennessee.
Is not the way to go about doing.
Says suggestion that that congressman Michelle Bachmann has been service sleeper in the past few weeks in terms of -- attention from the media.
But she spent a lot of time in Iowa and -- that's her strategy does that put her in a more viable as she may be more.
-- national polls give her credit for -- because -- my experience with Iowa is each one of these Iowa South Carolina and New Hampshire.
They have a different sort of tone to each one of them -- Iowa they're slow to commit.
But once they -- they stayed with you through stickers then it's sort of that midwestern sensibility in New Hampshire.
-- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- But she went to Iowa early she's got she's from Waterloo -- -- grew up there.
Represents the adjoining state in congress and she's got you know she's got an organization placed in a caucus organization matters and we need only look at.
Four years ago on the democratic side Hillary Clinton was the leader in the early polls and -- -- and yet got crushed in the caucus states.
Because she hadn't bothered organized most of Idaho for example.
And as a result the guy who had organized them swiped a bunch of delegates and and those were his early victories not the primaries they were on the -- the.
Plug governor Romney.
Four years ago I remember his son and and many of his sons and He too and was doing its driver on the state in every single county in Iowa is He doing that kind of emphasis now on I hours He sort of seeded Iowa to others and focusing -- other states.
I don't think he's made a decision because look he's right.
No he's got an organization in state in the state he's got the advantage of having a list of people who supported him for years ago.
Augmented by the intelligence -- organization's been able to gather thus far but I don't think he's made -- decision whether or not to commit.
But I like how mr.
aren't paid if they apparently committed not -- has been he's been going in and out in an Abbott and He has an advantage that Herman Cain doesn't have which is.
He's he's got a bunch of people and all the counties who know him and all well enough to have signed up and -- on the Romney county chairman here in Cherokee county.
Have Herman Cain needs to get that kind apparatus in place if he's -- asked if he's gonna as snake Iowa.
You've got to if you're challenger like Herman Cain who has.
Who's to you don't look.
He would be the first presidential candidate of a major political party since 1920 not to have held elective office.
And won the nomination if elected -- be the first president in history.
Who'd never held elective office so if you're if you're run an uphill you better seize the opportunities are given -- and this is an opportunity.
Which wander around west -- western Tennessee on a bus -- is not exploited.
-- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- The fact that He hasn't held an office I actually think in this climate in years to his bad that they that the Tea Party was so sick of congress and it -- for Natalie we expect that they're gonna vote Republican they have if anything yet again hurts more to have a batted -- I.
Hear this but it but I don't accepted I think presidential and we want our presidents to be people who got substance in and -- -- substance don't mix spears is -- experience -- out and look.
Did did we we think about the new members of congress as being -- Tea Party representatives.
But they have these same percentage of people have held local elected for state elective office.
As the rest of the congress the so they're not that much different in in terms of their XX experience in the rest of the congress that is to say.
Tea Party did not sweep in a bunch people who had never been involved in politics before just -- did you -- -- But I think experience and -- at least a -- his experience is different -- -- is as different but it may be refreshing.
It certainly is an experience -- might be easily transferred into some skills and been -- -- they have been.
From an -- I would not undermine what wedeman -- this point we don't know.
-- we do know this.
That in the head to head matchups Romney tends to lead.
Obama -- tends to lag but but it relatively close and Herman Cain in the national matchup Stephen always ahead of -- out of of Perry in the Republican presidential sweepstakes.
He nonetheless flags him in the head to head matchup with President Obama and I think one of the keys may be they want to know look.
Being in office and having served as governor of Texas for example as governor Perry did.
Gives people confidence so when I say I'm gonna do something you can know I can get it done because I've gotten it done before that's what it that's what serving in office cash connect -- clue.
I get a little biased because there was said that just a -- don't make -- TV yet that I did him I didn't have a journalism degree.
Well -- -- exceptionally good to and it had to -- -- that I found.
This and governor Matt Romney have going into the city he's now among many -- -- convention was in the ponds which is pretty much inside watching this is -- like the heir apparent.
-- -- I think we're way premature on this I -- again I point to four years ago Rudy Giuliani was leading the pack.
And He was nowhere by the so dearly when do we get out when we went to the point where we -- it -- -- -- the individual state polls start when we get close to voting in individual states and people are making up their minds and Iowa New Hampshire.
South Carolina and so forth but even then they'll change these early contests will have an impact on the subsequent contests.
-- 2000 actor remember we felt really good about South Carolina until the -- in the New Hampshire primary.
We were up by previous into the twenties and two days later we -- by about six after losing -- New Hampshire.
So it -- what was gonna matter is these early state polls as we closer to vote because it's going to be people get to a point and we don't know when it is it varies from election election.
-- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- From a New Hampshire it's time for me to make a decision.
I'm -- South Carolina it's time for me to make a decision and that's what really matters and until then this is all great it's all good conversation.
But it it does indeed you know the conventional wisdom is Romney has the lead to conventional wisdom is now -- into that He is the presumptive nominee.
They may be right he's got the lead but if the conventional wisdom is that he's the presumptive nominee.
That a true and when you better not be taken.
With the -- sort of accept that so that an Iowa.
Since it's not congress to caucus you had that machine and it got to get people to comment caucus and -- and a lot of things that even I was a little bit unfair and that bless you have a night off -- caucus if -- nighttime job we can't participate -- -- Well it -- and look throughout generally about a quarter to a third of the Republicans who vote under gubernatorial primary in the state actually vote in the name in news and and -- them -- to -- there it.
A caucus by its very nature tends to draw fewer people and as a -- is there -- -- for a different set for speaker Gingrich to get the nomination.
Well -- and you've got to break through and one of these early states and he's done well and each one of these debate performances it's -- him up a little bit in the national polls.
But again in this gets down to making a retail style campaign in three or four early states.
Certainly I was certainly New Hampshire certainly South Carolina maybe Nevada and maybe Florida.
But you gotta -- -- early in order to get there and the question is how strong is his organization in these early states SAI think -- -- senator Rick Santorum you know.
And Santorum look Santorum as it is is another potential like Bachmann.
Interesting -- figure to watch in Iowa again he's going for some of the -- same kind of people that she is that is to say.
Evangelical and social conservative she's got a little bit greater appeal to Catholics who are in the eastern part of the state she's probably got a better appeal to.
And what -- one of them out of this -- however sent sent comer a constant -- wins Iowa.
What does it do for them put it to New Hampshire.
Well New Hampshire doesn't pay much attention Iowa but it will give them may bump in the national media.
And it will allow them probably to survive those a second or third place finish in New Hampshire.
And go on to South Carolina and Nevada and other states -- -- we saw this with Huckabee who.
Went through and broke through new Hamm broke through and Iowa didn't do so well in New Hampshire but it allowed him enough -- to do things like run well in Georgia run -- in Missouri and so -- The extent -- can generalize if you do well Iowa you can expect to do better in South Carolina -- -- New Hampshire that's that's my general reaction because He and I think Iowa.
That you don't New Hampshire doesn't pay much attention of Iowa South Carolina pays attention to New Hampshire.
Even though that it that we are we view -- South Carolina we say South Carolina we think typical Republican Party in the -- however it's very diverse party.
You've got a lot of retirees along the coast of the lower part of the state.
Who came from the midwest and the northeast and have a slightly more moderate -- flavor and emphasize economic and national defense issues over social issues and then an up country you've got it a party that is more likely to emphasize the social issues.
In the middle of the -- you got up you know a mix of you know sort of small town conservatives and chamber of commerce types who -- bulls quake it was an industrial -- and governor -- You get and you get you get two things you get a brief moment of positive attention where you get some of the advocates of that person and some of their detractors.
But you get a nice little attention it did just soaks up with a today -- -- the new cycle.
-- this the second thing you can get is if they're willing to go on the campaign trail and actually do things for you because.
You quickly get into a place where you can't be everywhere that everybody wants you to be.
And have -- a strong surrogate like eight Christie -- Bobby Jen doll for Rick Perry.
Allows you to cover additional ground and keep your people fired up a notice for example that governor Christie almost immediately did an email for fundraising email appeal on behalf of of governor Romney that's that's that's the kind of advantage you get if you got a surrogate who's willing to throw themselves into the race.
I have a sentiment -- too much TV too much of pundits that governor Kerry and not gonna carry governor Perry seemed to serve less enthusiastic if it was like the wind is out of a salesman -- their second win but.
Does He seen it is He bless -- fact there are gonna go back to original thesis that it's that's way too soon.
It's way too soon look first full -- clearly Fred particularly from his wife's comments you can see that their mental state is not particularly good but He gave a good speech today on energy.
He's got fifty million dollars in the bank.
And the question is does He have the start of an organization and does He have a message that allows him to compete in these early states.
I suspect the south Carolina's gonna be pretty good form and if He keeps up this fund raising pace and He can be competitive.
With Mitt Romney on the tube in these early states.
It's probably too early to be up on television I would be worried that people are not up on television -- -- it's.
Rick Santorum has some radio ads that's probably useful for him but if you're well known like Kerry or Romney.
It is better for you not or -- is better for you not to be on television some these early states.
But to be -- person because this was a critical mistake Romney made four years ago in March April and may of 2007.
Before he'd really introduced himself personally -- people of Iowa He ran a budget television ads and I can't tell you how many people in Iowa I knew from politics that there -- a hot dog.
You know He should be run television ads that we'd rather -- to Lincoln day dinner that.
Are they you know they've -- the candidate forum and it didn't see his ads on television.
Adept way ahead -- the board game politics at this Iran is not me let's say we had -- as a nominee and this is really the board indefinite.
How what would they be looking for both of them in terms of a vice presidential nominee account of themselves.
Well look it depends on whether they're gonna make a political decision or governing decision if they're gonna make a political decision of both of them would probably say in the case of a case of from -- He probably -- -- want somebody from the emerging itself like a Marco Rubio or another successful governor from the midwest.
You know if it's -- Herman -- He would like somebody who's got some solid government experience much like Barack Obama did when He was worried about his foreign policy credentials.
And -- the chairman of the senate finance a foreign relations committee Joseph Biden.
But look at.
Did the day I learned in 2000 I was opposed to two with a Dick Cheney being chosen.
Because I thought it was a political mistake we did need to worry about Wyoming He was an -- man.
He served in bush forty one's administration we -- trying to develop the image of bush 43 is his own man and so forth.
But the president then governor bush decided to go Dick Cheney and the reason was He said.
The day after that's sort of made the case against Dick Cheney to both He and Dick Cheney.
The governor of Texas called me and said I'm gonna go Cheney and the reason I'm gonna go with them is because.
-- I'm thinking through the lens of who would be the best partner to be in the Oval Office and if something terrible were to happen to me who -- -- country have confidence in to be president.
You were right about all those political problems their political problems go solve I'm not concerned with the politics -- the work.
The same thing -- -- think -- that decision two selective Vice President Biden.
That was a governing decision as vice president -- -- -- chairman of the senate foreign relations for -- -- times as a good governing decision the -- exotic is also good political decision because it also filled sort of the the void that I don't.
It was a wasted -- was a wasted Colin -- yet Joseph -- Joseph Biden's advice on Afghanistan.
You know there's a new article out of about to about the decision on Libya it which once again Joseph Biden is on the losing end of all of these arguments and -- -- -- that the president went the other way yeah.
Exactly except his of his advice was so so important dig into two senator Obama.
Was President Obama basically dismissing -- all of his advice.
I think though that and look good I think they look good that's not political it look -- look like a zoo that claims the government decision -- -- -- -- little.
This if it wasn't who thinks Joseph Biden would be confident if Joseph but were present as states -- for one would not be.
I had I don't like the vice president -- well.
But but -- it you're right it was a political decision and and it was not a governing decision and that's that's the lens through which most people.
Who have to make this decision make it.
I mean look Joseph Lieberman was a big advantage of the democratic ticket but I think -- -- -- -- -- and it would have been a good governing decision but but we now know in retrospect.
It was a political decision Al Gore wanted to have a another member of the senate to have a to have you know something to allow him to leverage that the in Florida He wanted to get it.
-- South Florida Jews who were not excited about why not take this extraordinary step put the first Jewish American on the ticket.
And off they went to the races but it bit.
And that's how most of them make it an -- and I suspect president.
Oh Obama made a political decision.
I suspect both Mitt Romney and Herman Cain and Rick Perry would also make a political decision it's interesting -- in making government decisions did.
Always excited dollars and -- -- to be -- to watch anyway at cop thank you.
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