Signs the U.S. Economy Is Recovering?
Unemployment down, markets up
- Duration 8:36
- Date Dec 3, 2011
Unemployment down, markets up
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-- recovery in the making or another.
The best week for stocks and thirty years the best jobless rate in two and a half years consumers buying auto sales rising.
Home sales brawling.
Surging all signs were moving forward so why is someone -- saying not so.
Have hi everyone I'm -- but this is Bulls and Bears a scare.
The Bulls and Bears this week Cary B Smith Tobin Smith Jonas Max Ferris along with GM elect can't senior vice president at -- portfolio advisors.
And John Thomas financial's chief economist Mike Norman welcomed everybody.
-- all those arrows those app arrows not impressing you act.
Now not at all I mean look we've got 64%.
Participation rate in the labor force that's way too small as the lowest -- since 1984.
We have 3151000.
People that dropped out of the labor force that's not acceptable were already in the fourth year this recovery.
Keep in mind previous recoveries have shown jobs growth in the first two years.
But I'm not even worried about that.
I'm not worried about the fact that consumer incomes have not kept up with consumer spending so it's coming at the at the expense of savings and -- about that later.
I'm not worried about.
It expiring depreciation schedules and expense amber to get -- -- -- -- I'm worried about the credit crash that is coming and the market's completely underestimated okay out of Europe that will impact credit across the globe.
Right OK tell me is this -- recovery.
This is a slow but sure recovery this is not happy days are here again remember 2000 -- 2007.
Was a basically a BS -- 40% of those jobs -- housing and mortgages those things -- never gonna happen again 40% of all the profits that happened between owed to those seven were financial services we're never gonna be that high again OK so let's not take is great news and go -- on the other hand we are not.
On Mary be used see this seed ever covering here.
I do I've been bearish I think Toby has that kind of the speed right I I think maybe it moves.
A little bit fast anticipates for few reasons one.
The best number in there was retail employment was up that means consumers are gonna start spending more to maybe an even bigger point is temporary -- was up.
Now that doesn't sound great but the fact is -- -- barring usually leads to permanent.
Hiring in fact the sign we've been here that are -- all I let him finish place.
If we can get back to that 200000.
Job increase per month ever once -- -- the one.
In the other thing is as Jim mentioned he's talking about the credit crunch.
Actually household debt levels are at their lowest level.
They've been in seventeen years so the consumer actually has room -- -- as a consumer expands.
So goes the economy I think they're good things ahead more good things and bad things.
John -- are covering here.
It's definitely a recovery here in the big averages this recovery has a huge potential to go wrong because of a lot about some but it actually is here and listening doesn't go wrong.
It's not going to be the biggest recover all -- but these consumers have been need to repeat for years -- -- scene.
How that's -- now it a lot of pent up demand machine auto sales take off we just saw holiday shopping be -- ball better than anybody expected both online and offline so.
There's -- -- to drive the economy higher unfortunately there's this this scary overhang where there could be some daughter -- the.
-- -- -- -- gets you in a minute I wanna hear from Mike -- do you think this -- -- and I don't think it's the makings of -- recovery I think it's ongoing it's been happening since 2009.
Look it's not a -- by any means I think -- everybody would agree with that but you look at this year.
And specifically some of the problems that Jim mentioned let's say hi to my buddy Jim I haven't seen a minute while his good friend of mine.
In spite of everything we had the dead seal -- -- well there debt ceiling debacle in the summer.
We've had all this negative -- news about Europe and we see sequential growth the first quarter second quarter was faster then the the first.
Third quarter faster then the second in spite of everything.
I think the economy looks like it's picking up momentum was starting to see some positive.
-- glimmer of hold on the housing market with pending sales really.
Shooting up and we are creating jobs it's certainly not where we'd like habit right now.
But it's impressive to see the momentum in the growth despite everything.
That has happened so far there's still minefields out there no question about it but the economy here the United States.
Growing a lot faster than the economy in Europe can't.
Well I feel like taxpayers could -- I get a T -- here I spent all this money on stimulus.
You know I got was this lousy recovery I mean we have been a lot with little lot of bullets into this recovery and we're not getting very much.
Now we've got his fiscal drag coming out and not only that -- ignoring Europe and just saying well there's a potential problem there.
It's kind of like thing other than that mrs.
Lincoln how'd you like the -- magician there real serious problem and it's not going away it's getting worse every day.
And you just simply can't discount it.
I granted the market does opening -- makes every time European leaders at a meeting but the fact of the matter is the markets got a lot of head -- in 2000 it has to.
Well before it bottomed out in 2000 look -- Was it ever ever really recover we've had I believe since 1990.
Has been a no growth recovery because every fundamentally structurally different economies in the time in eighty what we just popped up.
But look at the job openings you have -- labor turnover is that the number of the -- number that number is -- about 2000002 and a half million CNA real recovery be about four -- And we did I that we have and we even have 64%.
Participation rate and real recovery after all -- -- let me get -- might go -- I've -- say we didn't have a huge -- stimulus to -- despite the fact that it's always portrayed that way it was about 4% of GDP at -- time and it didn't take this from a very severe negative.
To a positive GDP now it's it's fading out now and -- is -- -- the fiscal drag I agree with you but the carts.
That is supposed to happen as a result of that the failure the super committee that's not gonna have until 2013.
Next year looks pretty good we're not gonna have that much fiscal drag.
-- as it happens at about something that might derail the economy what what is that.
To me it's still home prices that's really the only area that hasn't come along for the ride as we -- economic data point it's worse than even last year leave alone 09.
Under the home prices have not recovered and -- they -- go down again for whatever reason it could be Arabic can be rates -- it.
That could derail this kind of a weaker economic growth period so other than that or this explosion in Europe.
I think word I was off to the races but it's his -- of the -- we're so used to big bubble growth -- and I think we're used to it it is.
-- -- -- Now let me give the return I look I agree with Jonas on the on the housing prices but there is one good piece of news in there.
Is that unemployment amongst the 25 to 34 year old.
Sector showed a dramatic increase that is that group that are looking to first by -- there there are looking to buy their first home rather once that's starts to go then all of -- homes above them.
Start to start selling because everyone wants to move up they can't move up or in my case moved down the can't move down and so I think that's really good news there that's.
You know kind of I was maybe -- hidden gem and I hope will help the housing well.
Pope called on their but let let's not forget that we have what you -- have a million homes.
-- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- You're close here well so so you know we have big depression still in the housing and to your point is long as we're at that point where it costs it's it's cheaper to buy -- -- -- rent a home today the United States and still we can't get demand for sales.
That's that's up five year try to use I'm never gonna -- the move Toby is that had gone out.
It felt like -- -- only blind people of America look at all of your hope for a lot of -- Not present -- -- -- lately and I don't know about that they're stand up I thought I had him.
There's another issue that nobody's talking about 50% of our corporate profits had come from overseas business -- China's slowing down Europe is in recession Brazil has said their growth is going to be 0%.
How are we gonna continue to grow the way we've been growing when we're seeing everywhere else in everybody we trade with slow down.
All right that's got to be the last word thanks so much.