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Special Report Online: 12/14

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    Iowa key for Ron Paul?

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Welcome to another edition of special report on line I'm -- there this is a very.

Bold -- from Sioux City, Iowa you never know technically you can see it's and you can hear us it's a great thing hopefully you can.

And now we'll have some fun -- in California says let's get it on okay Rick.

Let's talk about that.

Our panel first firewall box his -- senator -- -- -- you to congressional correspondent for the Washington examiner for Steve Hayes senior writer.

For the weekly standard.

As Chris often says every day hello Internet let's hear what you.

Anything we didn't talk about about Iowa and tomorrow the leading up to this pretty big event.

Well look the Internet already knows that Ron -- pretty big deal we got that we do not have -- -- -- Internet that.

But I I want to I want you guys just to think about in terms of this.

That this is -- six or eight year effort I mention that in the -- six or eight year effort that the police does have undertaken.

That they have put forward and -- this is the Internet enjoyed -- least.

I'm not sure what the -- -- position on that is but they're they're.

Yeah you you cannot say that they are not enthusiastic and so what they're gonna do in the first -- was a name identification raiser for Ron Paul in 2008.

Rand Paul's election to -- senate in Kentucky was a legitimizing moment.

Where -- okay here's this guy he's for real -- is now a United States senator.

And unseeded Mitch McConnell can't -- dude in the Republican primary and now it's become an effective senator.

Now they're ready to take the next step if they win the Iowa Caucuses I'm not saying that it puts.

Paul on a on a trajectory to win.

But what I am saying is these people have been very disciplined they're got to make it pay off now and it could change the race and it varies in a very significant -- All right Steve there are a lot of Republicans.

Who look at Ron Paul say.

Listen I like -- this guy has to say on domestic policy I'd like to cutting the government I'd like his his plans about.

Changing the way Washington works when he talks foreign policy.

I'm not sure I like it I'm talking in the mind of many Republicans.

And they get scared kid.

And they wonder how.

He can go up one against President Obama -- to get the nomination.

Yet what don't think you can although he basically just described me in a certainty that yeah.

We're I don't I mean I don't and look Ron Paul is speaking to domestic policy issues and and that.

The fiscal crisis in a way that.

I think is significant because it speaks to the the level of alarm among Republican primary voters this is how people feel.

And you have other candidates I think court -- -- tweaking at.

A tax rate here -- May be fixing is there but it's not mean these are huge problems people worry that we're losing America.

And Ron Paul is talking about those issues in such a way that really speaks to people -- I find it appealing on a lot of those issues not all of them.

The problem.

For Ron Paul is foreign policy and national security and it's not just days -- different position.

A lot of people in the Republican Party it's not just that he's so left less hawkish or.

Or less interventionist is that sometimes he sounds I mean I don't know how to sugar -- it sort of crazy.

In the debate where he basically suggested that Iran is not a threat and that's not -- is not a based assertion I think that's insane you know that.

-- was in the back and forth in the -- debate -- debate with senator Santorum.

Now Ron Paul only lost the Iowa straw poll by 152.

Votes that debate was two days before that vote.

And I think a lot of people looked at that said.

You know -- gets 152 people may have.

On the other way because of Iran or foreign -- look I mean I've I've spoken to voters who have told me exactly that well I really liked him but boy that Iran answer I mean I've spoken to voters recently.

Iowa voters recently who have said.

That Iran answer really scared me because of course around as a threat I think when you when you have that level of I don't even know what to -- when when you're so out of touch that you don't think.

The Iran in regime is a threat that -- Presents a problem -- from Texas writes I saw a clip today -- Romney called himself a progressive politician or something.

So much for small government conservatism.

That was a clip.

From when governor Romney was running for governor in Massachusetts and he said he was a moderate and a progressive.

In that race can Susan.

Romney.

Kind of campaign on listen that was a race to run Massachusetts.

And and still.

Appeal to conserve.

There's -- wasn't Romney maybe not running this just.

This is just part of who he is -- the candidate now all here's another here's more evidence that he's too moderate for -- We just keep these things keep popping up for him he's considered a -- -- considered someone who we conservatives can't trust.

And you know today you just -- voters out console wasn't no use talking about him -- -- talking about the other Romney candidate and that.

Therein lies the problem with him and this is just another issue another thing that's going to knock him down a peg.

In the eyes of the island voters.

While we have this these doors open Internet we thought we were -- give -- sneak peek into the debate.

Stage who.

A yeah.

Even the candidates campaigns have just seen this.

Guess what it looks a lot like our previous debates that it is very blue.

There it is exactly the senate again but it is a big room it should be rockets were told.

-- and probably a lot of as you termed -- leases in in -- about.

Were hoping not for -- Sioux City but we'll see we're prepared either way Chris.

You know what Susan said about Mitt Romney a lot of people are now saying about Newt Gingrich because of his past.

Statements and and where he's been on climate change and other big ideas that also had a tinge of big government.

Well to to bring this -- all the way back around.

Newt Gingrich has the same problem that Ron Paul -- which is the most important thing in politics is not what you say but what you don't have to say.

When you are able to stop talking and not have to talk about something.

That's when you win.

Ron Paul has to tell you that he thinks it's okay if Iran -- a nuclear -- Bob it would be okay if he didn't say that he he could still believe that and stop short of feeling when Brett asked him on the stage and then take it to the nth degree.

Newt Gingrich has the same problem.

He has to run every trap run everything all the way out and engage in this big or he's a professor he likes to think about it you -- any more discipline in.

New nukes then.

Old news then the new news the good news is grimly holding the rudder of his little ship trying to keep it from capsize and he and his whole team know.

That it's that they're going to continue to lose.

Some momentum as they get closer they have enough now.

That if they can -- get a victory what what somebody needs what some not Romney needs that no -- had yet because we have many voting is a win.

And it -- an ability to demonstrate that they can do it.

He's gripping that -- -- trying to hold his little ship straight until he can get to a win somewhere and then hopefully build -- -- the Internet like the visuals.

Like if there's not a runner runner the runner guys are here Internet as doesn't look like -- or she -- -- Guest rights in our Iowa voters at all concerned with making sure they nominate a candidate who can beat President Obama or they just making a statement on how they feel.

Jewel in Cape Cod says please don't under rate electability.

I think both of those questions get to a really fundamental thing.

-- we hear from so many folks he is who can be present Obama in the fall and that's a great.

Question it is an -- -- -- -- today in Council Bluffs and soon and Susan was who actually said that her top priority was electability.

How you determine who's electable and who's not.

Is another question Newt Gingrich was leading a poll on electability in Iowa last week there -- people who have concerns about his electability I think that he's not.

-- but there's no question that that's something that I think a lot of Iowa voters are thinking about as they contemplate where they're going to stick to send their support.

Jane from Colorado -- say how to Cavuto -- him.

For her loved him -- we will -- great -- -- here.

By the way he does his whole show without a teleprompter not.

Outside in cold.

-- -- -- only a little bit he doesn't already -- pretty good to come up to senator Santorum backed Arlen Specter over Pat Toomey.

Let's leave baggage and get on the train Jackie in Pennsylvania.

That's that's -- that -- local one.

And among others said although it you know given the effort and time at saint Thomas put into Iowa it's kind of mystified some people -- he's a stay so far above -- But one of the reasons people site is a Toomey Specter issue of course it was -- loyalty on his part but some new question whether such a good idea for him.

But you know he's just not registering the polls here -- -- still pretty low he's the only one -- visited every just about every square inch of Iowa he lives here he's been campaigning longer and harder than anybody.

Hockey can have real -- for the and evangelical vote here but he is not resonating.

And so that's why we're not talking about the Specter to rethink this well.

-- there is a possibility floors that we are not.

Seeing it over its under the radar isn't that isn't what.

Still less so than other candidates because he just another cash to do the kind of things that even Rick Perry asked to do we did with campaign ads -- -- -- I was raised a lot of money initially.

He's got that money and you're seeing it on the air here people tell me.

Yeah I haven't really heard much from Santorum that's -- -- from people like you're kidding me you know the guy's been everywhere but I doubt that Nike got the -- -- bake sale elementary school without.

How antidote to do some ads and some the -- reach the -- that even people like Ron Paul can do here every one -- Ron Paul and -- trip from Tony -- hello I'm -- I Wright told the story on it.

Day about how Newt Gingrich is in to mourn them and somebody asked him.

When he going up with a lot of ads or know when are you going on the air here in Iowa and he said as soon as you see this tape up to your station.

I mean he's using -- free media.

Really effectively.

And is Santorum doing the same thing.

Well he's trying to get attention that's for sure you know he's he's heat is under several campaign events of the day -- a workhorse.

In the hole where Steve this -- got the most.

He's due to the old -- he's he's doing a good way to the old school way and it that I would actually argue that.

If anybody is likely to surprise German unless Ron Paul wins which I think is totally within -- -- -- I think I think Santorum could really surprise me he's -- you know be as high as nine yeah simple keep you wouldn't at all surprise you know you -- -- -- tell you I've.

-- -- today he told me.

Look he's not trying to be necessarily trying to be number one -- Gingrich you know obviously that's not -- realistic for him.

Look at the lower tip he's looking at Bachmann Perry that I come in first among the most straight for him not to victory so we're looking -- fourth place went for him will be some cars -- what does Chris what's.

What place to Santorum come in that punches his ticket.

To.

So here I mean.

Every -- -- happened at central a browser performance he -- it wouldn't be enough for him to be the top of the second tier.

Because it it's explainable -- and then what you gonna -- go to all the counties in South Carolina before they -- things start happening too fast.

-- to really be able to do that and I also say don't underestimate the importance of that to me race.

Because.

History really screwed him over.

It was unfortunate for him Arlen Specter switched parties became a Democrat gave the democrats' supermajority in the senate and then Pat Toomey won and proved that he could win in a general election.

And that is something that for the Club for Growth set for real conservative folks.

That was the kind of a -- backing are a pro life or pro choice.

Barely Republican for somebody like Rick Santorum was.

That race was also I mean I have to say well we win win Santorum -- in that race was 5050 I'll immediately he waited and had a very consequential and -- really it's entirely possible to make it won that race politically.

Frank Moran.

Says we're looking forward to zany quirky news.

-- In Polk city Florida says -- was too deep in Fannie and Freddie he's.

He's too Smart not to understand what is going on and was bad for the country how much.

I just saw again on air here the Ron Paul had serial -- -- and there's a new version with the woman who.

Touches the screen and I mean it's a pretty -- -- -- very powerful enough by now seems like his negatives at least in the last two holes.

Have been going up perhaps record yeah.

Yes that it in this thing with Gingrich and -- this is as this this is big problem Internet.

She is not well liked if you look at the cross -- -- Chris I'd like to say he's real like ability prompt you have to be a candidate that people like and poll after poll has shown he has a big problem with that this just adds to it the people people have a reason to not like him.

Even if they might even consider voting for him they don't want them and I.

I think this I think this this attack that surfaced today.

Is going to be a big deal I think the Romney campaign wants to make a big deal and basically what happened was he did an interview with them.

Pump blog radio station a couple days ago and he suggested that Mitt Romney and sort by connection Paul Ryan wanted to.

Punish.

Seniors.

But -- -- -- with their Medicare proposal it's it's not true Ronnie was very clear about it when he proposed his.

Is that Medicare plan which is close to but not exactly the same as Paul Ryan's the end.

You know that's a moveon.org.

Type attack to level totally this -- and he's.

That's if you're accurately portraying it that's the second.

-- -- in a week where he went after from a brilliant yet from the latter view from the capital right charged it -- well I -- That and how I was that's exactly right and this is I think you know this would give somebody who's who was otherwise favorable to mute.

Some pause I mean I was say you know as somebody who's been watching this race -- to do reasonable guy I think he's made conservative arguments he certainly deserves credit for 1994.

But this the kind of thing when I saw what he said and how he said and he actually said.

You know Mitt Romney hasn't been that specific about his plans so if I'm wrong if I'm making assumptions I shouldn't be.

I'm sure he'll correct -- which strikes me is just sort of mischievous like.

He knew what he was saying it wasn't honest it was totally misleading he decided to launch the attack anyway it's not a good sign for somebody who's supposedly the new.

More discipline -- game.

Scott Jensen from Wisconsin who often -- sentences Rick Santorum is focused on social issues in election about the -- -- he has talked a lot about.

His plan to boost manufacturing in his tax plan.

He had done that you're -- -- talk a lot about social issues because he gets asked a lot about social issues a lot of reporters say.

You're the social issues guy at least that's what senator Santorum says I will point -- Scott.

That you have to be happy how much we talked about Ron Paul's got chances -- Ron Paul -- He may be characterizes -- least I'm not sure but we have I don't know that that's a super majority I don't think so I didn't but -- -- -- increasingly obviously talking a lot about Ron Paul as he continues to do very well.

We'll look at Santorum that.

That the problem for Santorum is the electability question more than anything else it's not just that'd -- -- -- to see it's not just any -- else.

It as much -- it is.

The fact that when people say.

Could this guy win independent votes head to head with Barack Obama and that's where the social conservatism because even somebody who socially conservative might say.

I think he's too far.

That he can't get the mainstream votes in the it's it's a tough calculation for primary voters and caucus there was to make.

As they say how close can I get to my ideal.

But still have somebody who is electable and that's -- -- -- calculation that they have to make over the next three week.

New.

Says -- how is your son Paul doing is you don't the hospital yet thank you for asking he's doing great he's back home actually -- school.

Angioplasty -- great thank you very much have a lot of emails thanks for the prayers and good wishes.

Dave in Wisconsin I like Bachmann to are we discount to Michelle Bachmann in this conversation.

That's a great question.

When we don't -- -- talking about -- much Israeli.

-- poll numbers a couple of justice may still little thing you know she's in she's got way I think things could.

Get interesting she's going to embark on -- -- a tour.

A ten day tour where she plans to hit all 99 counties.

I know that this is going to be really -- big effort here to try to round up some votes and tracked her final big push.

And and it's gonna be interesting to see if she's wouldn't be able to Kinect.

When voters by doing so many events in such a short period of time.

She's got a money problem too how can she do the advertising is -- to keep -- with the -- the big guns here in this race were far ahead of her and in fundraising and poll numbers.

I think this -- around a lot could could -- a little bit of a boost.

I I certainly think it's possible but I again think this would be more of a protest -- I think that if people if -- throw up their hands and they've become disenchanted with Gingrich after a few weeks of enchantment.

If they throw up their hands today there's nothing that Romney's done that's gonna make them come his way I don't think I'm disappointed he didn't do visual with the -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- This spot that appeals to look -- -- was gonna do well she would have done well by now she is from Iowa.

And she's been here you know she's she won the straw poll by just the meeting Ron Paul -- just a little bit.

But she once -- if she was going to be doing really well we be seeing it by now why isn't she doing well so it makes you wonder if it's even possible.

That's true but if -- if we were to say -- -- what's the least likely thing to happen right now and it would be Michelle Bachmann staging some huge comeback and then in Iowa.

And I happened and it happened then it would fit the pattern of the race I mean that's that's like these and Gingrich.

It's thanks for -- well a lot of people not only a lot of undecided voters but people who are decided.

Aren't really fully commit yeah there's lots -- latest polls show that two thirds of likely caucus goers still haven't made up their mind to it.

And -- likely will make it up in the final ten to seven days go up Giuliani's choice matters -- really Sheila in Atlanta.

Our best bet is to draft Paul Ryan and a brokered convention.

Can we come to a consensus.

That -- brokered convention is not going to happen and that Republicans are now at the point we have to love the one you will absolutely not I can't know.

I think a brokered convention is entirely possible it seems totally unlikely to me that Republicans settle on anyone -- that there's an obvious nominee.

Before the weather is warm here in Iowa or in Washington DC it doesn't mean that Paul Ryan will come charging in the same day or anything like that but.

Look you could just the way -- Mitch Daniel under Chris Christie or whomever I don't think that's inconceivable it may remain unlikely I don't think it's at all inconceivable look at the way to calendar sets up.

He's got all of these states.

Are you sure this is not a statement to sell more weekly standard time -- I'm not trying to make sense and that's all I'm Mike Kelly I might be writing about Wednesday.

Now it's not -- opposite -- so you've got all of these states the sexual news to.

We've got all of these states in January February every one -- one.

Has had their delegates have already.

-- already had the committee of the call for Republican National Committee committee of the call has already stripped the states other than about a half their delegates so you're talking about a miniscule portion of the delegates delegates ultimately mean to have a nominee.

And then you basically have February.

Offer mostly off and then you've got Super Tuesday in the contest.

It's not it's not such -- Super Tuesday anymore because they re -- that counts in the calendar to design -- to go longer.

But here's the problem with man are you on board with -- -- -- that well that -- let me say the problem with magical thinking and that the medical thinking that's going on right now as people say.

So and so as you say some person polarized and Chris Christie Mitch Daniels a unicorn is beautiful ride in on -- -- through a cloud of smoke unite the party behind him you know drive to a brokered convention which they went.

The problem with magical thinking it.

It gets you into trouble when he confronts -- -- right now other picturing this -- moment but instead what they could end up with.

Is -- real big pile into -- in August where you get down there in the broke their attitudes this and I mean I think those.

Things are entirely -- that that's and that's what they may get themselves into that you end up with a brokered convention that still produces Mitt -- is -- -- and I don't.

What I'm saying is I don't think people would be.

Casting their votes over the next two months.

With the idea that there waiting for this savior I think they'd be casting their votes based on what they think is a set field.

And that we have I mean look it's it's entirely possible that we have three or four different winners in the three or face possible first states.

And when you've got delegates awarded on a proportional basis.

You already are limiting the number of delegates that -- -- you get we all know that Ron Paul is not gonna get out.

At any point he he I think he and his supporters are.

Already making plans to make him a big splash at the convention in one way or.

The I think back to Saint -- And a -- -- life in which is the alternative.

-- -- But -- was the behind Paul convention shrimp big inside joke here -- yeah well -- -- -- is even.

Yeah I'm gonna disown convention yeah it was well intended they were screaming throng there to see so that's a question okay let's say he wins -- -- here comes in strong strong finish.

But yet doesn't have traction down the road long term.

Well until OK New Hampshire is not doing so badly there right now grass and it was heading South Carolina -- -- -- -- Florida.

You know you.

So you think if he wins Iowa that the slingshot the traditionally Iowa has been.

Could be the slingshot -- -- -- -- I'm not not ironically I might do that are you got -- he's got his.

Or right he's got his corps he's got a story about it and -- status my status -- nationally and certainly has its core here and I think he's going to remain a factor I think way more likely is.

-- Newt Gingrich or Ron Paul wins Iowa and Mitt Romney war.

Who knows Newt Gingrich or somebody wins New Hampshire but but by a small margin if Romney wins.

And then Gingrich wins South Carolina we're seeing -- -- gets a slingshot out of here -- veteran South Carolina and I mean you can just imagine where you have a number of different.

Candidates do well.

He needs January contests.

And there's a totally fluid field at this point after the first month that everybody's been.

Thanks so much attention and then there's this law I -- then there's this lacks those we -- -- say okay we've got all of February to sit around and think about this -- the biggest problem with that theory of course and it's not necessarily my theory I'm just throwing it out the biggest problem with that theory is that.

All of these people who we are discussing about as potential.

You know long shot last minute candidates have already said -- we've already made their decision not to run -- who would actually an.

-- -- cigarettes got in Georgia says hey my name is Scott.

And I never get a mention what's up with that.

Okay yeah.

All right let's get final thoughts it.

Well it -- into the final thought is this.

If Ron Paul wins in Iowa.

Mitt Romney is -- happy happy individual because it's going to be hard for Ron Paul would translate that to a place like South Carolina with a heavy military.

Preference.

People that are not going to be happy about that.

But it certainly opens the door to a brokered convention and if you are a -- -- that you got to be thinking look we may not have a path to victory right now.

We got to take every win we can get because that increases our end.

-- we get to the convention and increases the likelihood that we can shape an outcome that is more libertarian and less interventionist.

Deadline December drop out after Iowa.

And potentially Bachmann Santorum -- do it badly enough.

To whoever comes in fifth of six I think -- they got ago.

There's an argument there's a plausible argument for the fourth place -- isn't sure if it's one of those where -- go -- so and then the surprise factor for Perry if he does better here.

Does he resurrect his chances down through South Carolina he could pick up support and his minutes is explicit argument that he met today -- I want a second look you give me a second one you know I'm not great debates give me -- -- what he's got a great he's got a crack into the top three if he had given me.

If any has to have had a -- -- a good performance tomorrow -- hit a really good performance tomorrow night.

That could make a difference arguably Saturday had a pretty good gives you.

Yeah if -- did -- and then at 101000 dollar a bad thing all all the negativity was on it was on -- his time and not him and -- benefits through expeditions and look he can't do well on.

You know we get South Carolina -- do well yourself.

He can do -- some an area Mitt Romney really struggles and and so I think that seem they seem passport if you can do really well -- mean the interesting thing I hear from voters right now.

We like all we you know what they see a candidate they see -- like this part of this candidate some part of this chance and there's not one candidate that they see that has all the ingredients of daylight.

That's is -- into.

Thing about this race this time around a while we were talking brokered convention -- People just aren't really satisfied with the field less -- Huntsman in this debate tomorrow he wasn't in Saturday here -- the town hall in New Hampshire on Saturday to.

He's very low and polls here has even played at all in Iowa yes but in New Hampshire.

It's who it's possible and also did it tells you that Romney's paying attention because he's increasingly at model where he needs to be establishing his conservative gonna be days.

Keeps talking about independence.

Democrats working across the -- That messaging reflects the fact that he knows that Huntsman is up there nibbling away -- -- in New Hampshire so Romney.

The stakes are so huge from a New Hampshire he -- did not just win your income ten -- it out yeah.

It's got to be -- more than ten points and so Huntsman is up there eating its lunch in its drive them crazy.

Since they will be fascinating tomorrow thank you very much panel Internet.

Thank you it's -- thanks for watching a special report on line georgians of course every weekday at 6 PM eastern for special report and Bret -- is the Twitter handle tweet me with suggested questions for tomorrow's debate.

We'll see next --

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