Special Report Online: 12/21
Who has a shot in the Iowa primaries?
- Duration 21:36
- Date Dec 21, 2011
Who has a shot in the Iowa primaries?
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Welcome to another edition of special report on line I'm Bret -- if you haven't been here before welcome you interact with the panel ask -- question make comment.
Type in vote in some polls that are ongoing -- it too late for a new candidate to enter the GOP presidential race right now says no 53%.
We shall see.
And of course we're back with the panel -- Mary Katherine and Charles let's start there.
With 2012 although -- -- in New Jersey says senator Schumer ticked me off.
He was very happy tonight for the the Democrats in their position we'll get back to that but I wanna talk about the 2012 campaign.
And where things stand a new poll out today and Iowa breast mission reports poll has Mitt Romney on top 25%.
Ron Paul at 20% he's been roughly about there he seemed as some polls.
Actually have him leading.
By a few percentage points -- Newt Gingrich was in third.
What about the state of the race right now -- -- Well I think earlier in the week when it -- started having his falling off there was some question as to where that support would go I think there's still some question.
If it follows national trends will split sort of equally between all of Romney and the non Romney's.
In I why do you think there's a chance for -- spending a lot of money and Santorum who is -- anything in -- Very strong social conservative to gain a little bit of momentum and finish ahead of where we would have expected them.
But if it does seem like people are interest in and the electability of Romney.
Newt is hitting his downfall there surged down slide of the wrong time Santorum -- -- their upswing -- threat -- us.
The non Romney sounds like a band.
That I saw in college and Charles.
I Santorum who is now I've been officially in Iowa resident.
Fraser one who might just surprise I think Perry is you know Perry and Bachmann and Santorum a sort of waiting -- I I do think the new vote.
To the standard he continues losing it will split every which -- I can see going to win -- and I think we're done with that cycle.
Where there was that trump Bachmann Perry -- and now new word to went to one candidate who almost exclusively.
At a time and had -- accounted for the bump in the -- in an awful.
And I look -- view is at some point people are gonna give up on the alternatives because after all the only ones left now.
-- Huntsman and Santoro my finger -- -- it's.
And Ron Paul who will not end up being the nominee.
So I think some conservatives -- gonna have to sort of a climate guys themselves and decide.
In the end they'll probably have to bite their lip and support Romney or at least pull the -- Even if it to get done with no enthusiasm whatsoever.
One you know get tons and tons of emails and messages and -- people upset that by comments like Ron Paul's never going to be the nominee.
That is the sense when you talk to -- analyst of this race but when he talks on his supporters on the ground in some place like Iowa.
They are 1000%.
Fired up about this campaign.
Yeah and the fact is and you know this better than I do because you were just -- that if you're in Iowa.
What you see on TV.
On the commercials is largely Ron Paul ads attacking.
Newt Gingrich protecting everybody and playing up Ron Paul as the true radical the true anti establishment candidate the one truly captures.
The anxiety Americans feel at this moment are distressed they feel.
About the federal government so Ron Paul is having his moment and he has the money -- has the campaign structure.
I think all of this place -- -- -- no more debates so that's have a picture what counts right now it's paid advertising in any kind of news that you can generate.
I think over the holiday period again Ron Paul is going to stand tall he's -- going to be there.
I think Gingrich is being negatively impact he's asking for a truce right now to stop the fire -- he's getting pummeled.
Romney says he's not responsible.
Question as well as some of that be blowback on Romney will people start to say you know what you're -- a little bit below the belt.
But other than that look at Ron Paul I don't see anybody attacking Ron Paul and I see him attacking -- Have the money to go after Ron Paul even though he may be ahead of him in the polls and Iowa.
And Mitt Romney wants him to succeed in Iowa because if he wins -- -- becomes there's a pathway for Romney.
A little bit better so what are some of the things that Ron Paul has said in the past that maybe raise some eyebrows beyond his foreign policy.
Well I think that's always important to his respect the -- he has done the work he's made this organization she's sold some voters on him and they're very excited and the Iowa caucus.
Process will reward people who are very excited and pumped up but you also have to look at.
The foreign policy positions which I think it's his speaking about Iran in the last debate probably didn't turn off.
It's a pretty decent number of of Iowans who were not already in the Paul camp who might have gone that way.
And then you've got the issue of his.
His newsletters from way back that came out a couple years ago Jamie -- -- around in the new republic.
Have some really nasty stuff and then he says they were under his name but he didn't write them but he'd be.
Very racist comments in them are incendiary -- those will come out.
If he were to get the nomination I think Romney also thinks if I would I would guess he -- -- -- Paul won in Iowa.
A lot of conservatives and -- -- as you would panic and say we just kind of rally round -- There's a video going around -- today yesterday that from January.
In which Paul.
Bradley Manning the guy who is accused of leaking all of the details to WikiLeaks.
Any calls and a patriot and this appears to in this this video that I watch on on the air I would assume that some of that would come out down the road if somebody was focusing on Ron Paul but right now -- one mentioned that there they're not.
And the reason that they are not the reason that he hasn't received negative advertising.
-- -- -- The prominent the Republicans especially the ones in the rays who have a stake in this.
Have concluded what I just said earlier that he can't win it is that I'm making -- -- -- -- an analytic point but it happens to be shared.
By the other candidates the reason nobody will take him down is because in the end he is not a threat he will not be the ones -- get -- The nomination in the view of the other candidates so one piece of evidence.
Had that could be true that a lot of report Republicans -- -- experienced in the field know there's.
Is that he's taken no income.
-- second piece of evidence is that things said in the debate which went on remark.
And that I think is where is bringing up when you talk about Iran he saved we shouldn't be threatening and all this stuff.
We should do what Kennedy did in the Cuban missile crisis and pick up the phone and -- -- have an -- -- out.
Kennedy never spoke with Khrushchev on the phone or otherwise.
He didn't worry -- out he declared a blockade which is an act of war.
As Russian ships were headed into Cuba and said that if for Russian ship crossed the line we would see who boarded.
And sync it if we have to a second act of war and if the Cubans.
Launched a missile we would destroy the Soviet Union including all its population.
So Ted Kennedy.
As the model.
Settling disputes with nuclear powers.
Shows a misunderstanding of history that is simply staggering.
He's got -- who often defends Ron Paul says is Neil Cavuto says both Carter and Reagan were un electable in Iowa as well.
How is Ron Paul any different.
-- -- -- -- Especially in foreign affairs so a large majority of Americans reject.
America's always had a very strong isolationist streak but since Pearl Harbor it has never commanded a majority.
In either party left or right democratic or Republican.
And that in and of itself is a reason it would be incredibly improbable.
That anybody who holds the views he does would be elected president.
Lot of people are asking about Jeb Bush there was rumors that he was considering -- news file.
Putting out some papers about different issues he has been doing that since he left Florida governor governors office.
What about Jeb Bush what about anybody else heading into the convention in this whole theory of a brokered convention.
Jeb Bush has an interest in one because Jeb Bush is actually rendering very good work on education -- critical issue and making a name -- -- those circles nationally.
-- especially for school choice.
Toms and the school choice groups give him something of an organization.
An existing structure if he was to make the move now.
I think the calculation has been to this -- that.
It's too soon after his brother not to be negative or anything but I think there's a lot of all my guys are -- -- George H.
Bush George W.
Bush are we -- really we just having another bush and you know it's just too much I think.
People feel -- weighed down by that.
They're two principles scenarios.
That would take us beyond.
Really Florida at the end of January 1 is that -- people if if you have someone like let's say charles' favorite Ron Paul leading at that point.
That they would you would see the elders of the party come together and say.
Your party needs you.
Will you please reconsider at that juncture.
And then this other one of course and I think this is even.
-- but then at that point you have a angry Ron Paul who then perhaps launches a third party yet run and an Iraq.
-- say the other person here is a brokered convention which I think is a little bit farfetched but just it talked to Charles for a second here.
I must say.
That people do know it's not a secret.
Ron Paul's beliefs -- -- active young.
Young people in America though I'm not really love his libertarian -- some but look there there are many also has because he's new ones and he also a lot of support from the military.
He does and he -- The deal going wisdom is that he's going to tout that support yes probably ahead of secular I don't deny that -- -- -- -- -- -- -- is always had a constituency.
In America but after Pearl Harbor is -- -- -- and it can -- command a majority.
And the idea that everybody had known -- the views he had I'm not sure.
That every Republican in Iowa had known.
That he's would be absolutely unconcerned if Iran acquire nuclear weapons he thinks it is in our business he thinks that we caused.
9/11 on the all of these things I'm sure you and I know a lot of people who are inside.
The beltway know about it I'm naturalized and I think there's reasons of course and he's got a ceiling he's -- a strong floor.
But the reason he's got a ceiling and always had has ones because.
People learn about all this stuff and they decide if not his match.
-- then there's a certain amount of romanticism I think about Ron Paul and his -- which I think would be.
You know would suffer when he came out and -- and was given more play.
You know we're and you can you my friend you asked young people who are so excited about -- references -- they know about his very staunchly pro life views.
Maybe a lot of them don't wouldn't be too keen on that scene I think there's a lot of information there that people don't have.
Well and also and it.
For policy the point of my question was that on some of these issues.
He would be running to the left of President Obama in the general election will be very -- race where we're protecting them activist.
People who -- like Ron Paul are aware of this and they're not buying off Ron Paul in Iowa.
You're assuming that -- the rest of Republican.
Party regulars would buy off Ron Paul once he gets to New Hampshire and put maybe not Charles maybe people in fact see him as.
The antidote to the polarization.
To -- business as usual in Washington here's a guy that says let's take care of America I remember back when.
Bret -- was there when we did the debate and I think it was made in South Carolina.
He was he set all these things he said he thinks heroin and prostitution should be -- -- Hasn't stopped them.
-- -- he also says we ask him about this on the -- that he was against the -- of the fence with Mexico because it could be used to heal the sick.
Americans -- and I still don't quite understand that look.
Then there's one other element that we touched upon here nobody is attack.
And that's a big difference knew it was on the rise then all of a sudden he got the biggest artillery.
The barrage since I don't know it would -- I mean it is never I mean the amount of money spent on him and he sent.
Nobody attacks Ron Powell and why -- -- everybody has the view at least his opponents have you he's not gonna insulate.
And and if you're Romney strategically he helps you because if he does well in Iowa the other candidates who will not I think if he ever world.
A real challenge it was a one on one and people actually began running ads on the things he said and the things he's done it would be very different.
You can Jesse Ventura I think people had this attitude towards Ventura -- Schwarzenegger.
-- was a one term -- He was the winners article.
You'll get Jimmy Carter was also -- one term president I'm not sure people see him as a winner.
Hugh writes back to the payroll tax cut extension.
Battle he writes you missed a great opportunity with senator Schumer he said that the normal procedures that a bill from the senate goes of the house for an up or down vote.
Why then does the senator Reid follow normal procedure and put the eighteen job creating house bills on the senate floor for an up or down vote.
You have a great point to you and you're right I did miss that opportunity.
And I was focused on the payroll tax cut extension battle but that was a good follow up and I should have done it cue from Denver Colorado.
You're exactly right.
It is amazing that Democrats are ecstatic about this I just think and I heard everything you all said there is.
For a a -- did a jujitsu moment here where Republicans turn it around in the politics looks horrible.
For them but then they turn it around and pull out a win.
Interest in where you would you say yes well they hold the line that the president can't afford.
He cannot afford for them payroll tax cut took safari can't afford for unemployment benefits he's not going the left.
Let that happen one I think -- because the economy eventually comes back to the president yesterday to remember they -- they -- kind.
And the political party back and they will then be resume these negotiations and in the meanwhile whose gates who's taken a beating.
I think he can watch it happened through January long twos -- Knowing that in the end something will be done and you can make it retroactive correct but while it's happening especially if it happens after January 1.
And people who receive the first paycheck that smaller than the one in December.
And the narrative which everybody is accepted in the media as well not everybody's mainstream.
Have that it's -- Republicans who are obstructionists and heartless and all that.
If that narrative remains in the Republicans are the ones who take the heat.
And the president goes on the air every night and says -- -- begged them to pass there's so that your check will not end up being smaller.
I think in the end he wins therefore I suggest they take the senate -- changed the day.
And pass and I think at least in that sense you want to retain the initiative and I think they've given up if you do that.
Then I think Harry Reid is on the defensive.
You -- change the date.
Yes -- -- not two months but do it for a year low and you have to then they'd have to come back but anyway you're gonna have to -- negotiated in conference -- for the auto related so yeah.
-- -- -- -- If you will you just change the date and then you negotiate the terms -- the problem as is that if you change the date for the whole year.
Then you have to take a lot more in the fees to pay for from the mortgage stuff on the Fannie and Freddie deal with the VA and be higher have to -- deeper.
And it's set up a millionaire surtax you've got to -- Come up with funding that that covers -- you do is you end up with a bill that is only partially.
Which is not unconstitutional it's not illegal you passive and and you were -- -- that Republicans said then you're adding to the deficit which we don't want them.
-- not only that we haven't talked about Social Security well and.
It's and also higher -- And I think that from the beginning if they had made the argument six months Olympus was -- and this was a holiday it was supposed to and we are taking money actively from an entitlement program that's already hurting this is a Social Security raid.
Frame it that way you're not in this position now that was not the way it was done it was talked about as a tax cut that was the democrats' language they wanted to use and it materially when you see your paycheck that's what it's gonna look like and I think.
Changing that narrative it's very hard at this point maybe -- -- stick around and sit on the hill.
And say look I'm here -- to do business and nobody here with Maine and I don't maybe that can do it I'd.
The interesting part is is that a number of house Republicans.
Don't want to do this -- tax cut extension because of that very recently they don't wanna raid the Social Security trust fund that argument you could -- -- it.
And right now in fact in Iowa this is the argument being put forward by Bachmann by Santorum and others.
Who say they may find this an assault on Social Security.
The problem is remember the house passed its payroll tax cut extension so you can't make the case retroactively -- -- we changed -- And they're not even arguing on the UV principled we're gonna blow a hole with a foot stand there arguing on the one year vs two months which seems a losing ground today.
And -- original sin here.
Wasn't a deal done rather lame duck session 2010.
That introduced a payroll tax holiday in the first place.
And that meant that Republicans were conceding the principle that it's okay to dip into social security and once you conceded that argument.
How do you resurrected in December of next year with a week.
To go now I understand the politics of it I'm just saying from a different point of view I think it is.
A lot of people sitting at home are not as stupid -- people in Washington think they are and -- Sanders Schumer and others say that it's a thousand dollar.
You know tax cut it's really not right now it's a 166.
Dollars for two months and people on the couch.
They get it they're not dumb so.
Sometimes they just think people operating Washington like everybody at home as don't there may also -- play out so we wouldn't do it's not politically and I understand I'm just.
It's hard to see how the Republicans escape.
So but the boxes they -- -- politically that's all I'm saying and that's why I think even know the merits or on their side.
They do they really don't have an escape -- There are perhaps some people who might say hey look at me I'm working the week after Christmas because times are tough and I come to my job you can make it maybe you can make the pitch that the senate should do the same and people would get that's what's so commanders can do -- -- -- but you have to there will be around -- -- will be a moment we have -- yourself -- to make that -- It's bigger -- you welcome to do it right here on special report we welcome you will be around all week.
What we're here he can -- a hunger strike on the air right here how.
Like your kids who thought I thought fascinated by -- -- thinking because I'm looking for exactly how they get out and I think the one way they could change the narrative is to say.
We are being responsible we don't like the way things are done in Washington.
And and we are not gonna go along with it and then you know we -- the outsiders.
And it might inconvenience people for a little while but we care about you the harder time yes I just thought this.
-- works just the wrong way for so many years were trying to make it work at least a little better.
I don't know I don't know if -- itself but that's what he's gonna try to do -- -- have to sit in the capital and say that all Christmas week to make that happen.
On top of influential I'm open to that -- Maybe you can get the car horn and you wouldn't.
Farmer says thank you Brett I'm not stupid.
How well thank you listen I'm going to wrap up a little bit early tonight because -- have a holiday dinner Christmas synergy go to.
Ahead of this Christmas week thank you panel -- always special report on line every Wednesday.
I won't be here next Wednesday but someone will join us every week night 6 PM eastern respect for -- control room.