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'Anti-Incumbent Myth' in 2012 Election

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    Will voters re-elect current representatives?

  • Duration 4:11
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Well the latest Gallup poll has congressional approval at an all time low of just 13%.

With numbers like these many of us would expect that incumbents would be shown the door come November many of them were last time around.

But some political experts say do not hold your breath.

They point to what's called the anti incumbent election -- one of those experts Larry Stabenow director of the center for politics.

At the University of Virginia the old saying goes Larry that people hate congress.

But love their particular member of congress is that what you're seeing this year.

It's still true now I will say this John it's less true it's becoming less true -- I think.

The incumbent members of the the house and senate need to be concerned about this that the institution is so low.

That eventually it is going to affect the individual members if it continues but the election is nearly a year off.

I would still bet today that that old -- remains in effect for November 2012 but people will will be angry at congress but -- wall.

-- if only they were all like -- -- congress man or woman.

You know John go Mary go in of course they may all be like John Doerr -- -- but that's not how the individual voter looks at it.

It but some perceive that there is such an anti incumbent mood out there among the electorate that this year we could see a triple flip we could see -- house.

Go to the Democrats again go to democratic control we could see the senate go Republican and we can see the White House go Republican do you think that's possible.

I would I would bet anybody not 101000 dollars that's not my -- game already -- maybe a hundred dollars that is not gonna happen.

I'd say one half of 1% chance of something like that would occur.

By the way it's never happened in American history you've never had a triple flip like that at least that's the senate was elected popularly beginning at the -- start of the twentieth century so the odds are enormously against it.

We live in a partisan age age polarized age.

When most people.

At the top of the ballot start voting Republican they continue voting Republican to the bottom of the ballot the same is true for Democrats and I'll -- it happens next November 2.

President Obama -- popularity ratings are not strong right now below 50% according all of the polling but.

As we just pointed out -- popularly popularity ratings of the congress.

Are far far lower is that part of the reason why mr.

Obama seems to be winning this battle right now on the payroll tax -- extent.

And he seems to be getting his way.

You know it's it's absolutely true of politics is a comparative game.

And essentially you can be unpopular but if you choose as your enemy.

An institution or -- group of people who are far less popular you're going to look better.

Which frankly is one reason why Republicans in congress should try to steer away from too many direct -- direct confrontations.

With the president during the election year.

It may be wise on principle but it's not wise politically.

Well and it's reflected in that Wall Street Journal.

Op Ed piece that I mentioned earlier in the hour in which they say Republicans might have the better argument but they're losing the political.

The PR map.

Yes many people have lost a lot of races.

Being right on principal John for the Wall Street Journal had it exactly right.

Larry salado from the University of Virginia center for politics -- working right up through Christmas I mean when you when you turn out the lights -- -- That.

We we don't believe it or not -- my great loyal staff here at the center for politics working right here Christmas right through New Year's.

No alcohol on New Year's -- -- right through to the Iowa Caucuses January 3.

My belief that alcohol patty on that little Shia -- -- I don't believe it at the university property after all anyway congratulations -- that's right where we want which of the very best and keep all those loyal associates happy got a lot to cover coming up thanks.

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