Where Do Candidates Stand Ahead of Iowa?
RealClear Politics co-founder Tom Bevan weighs in
- Duration 4:37
- Date Dec 24, 2011
RealClear Politics co-founder Tom Bevan weighs in
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Well I'll caucus is only ten days away and there have been lots of changes this week as we've been telling you today for example Newt Gingrich and Rick Perry.
Did not make the cut in Virginia.
Ron Paul is making up major ground in Iowa at this time and Mitt Romney's campaign is -- Tom Bevan co-founder of real clear politics is here.
With his fight in June 2012 elections -- up and he's here to share them with us today.
Tom -- do you see the candidates standing right before the holidays and give -- your reaction in the news about.
Rick Perry and -- Gingrich not making the ballot and -- Virginia.
And that's significant it shows the importance of organization and and as this campaign gets going.
-- organization matters -- if if one of these candidates is -- able to make it out of the early states.
-- -- They got they have to be able to get on the ballot otherwise that's what Mitt Romney has the real advantage and and might be able to grind down.
And and win the nomination ultimately because he's the better organized candidate and a lot of these states beyond just the early states -- You know candidates like Newt Gingrich and others and -- still scrambling to put together -- requisite organization.
So how important is I -- -- Iowa become for those candidates -- at this point.
Well it's it's critical for Gingrich I mean if he doesn't finish in the top three there.
I think his campaign is probably over its critical for some of the second tier candidates Rick Santorum.
Michelle Bachmann even Rick Perry.
I -- is very much expectations game they're not expected to you well right now.
If they're able to surprise people that'll be the story.
Ron Paul's now leading in Iowa and so in some ways the burdens on him if he if he doesn't win Iowa that'll be a a negative story for Ron -- also.
Right now it's all about managing expectations heading into the -- just ten days.
And going forward New Hampshire will hunt you -- that sifting is about at this point with the candidates.
Doing their best to convince voters there and that they have what it takes to make the grade.
Yet New Hampshire is different because it's so primary and it's an open primaries so independents will be a significant part of the voting bloc there.
Mitt Romney's lead has shrunk he still ahead by double digits roughly 13% in our -- politics average.
But his support seems to be a little soft other candidates are creeping up now including Jon Huntsman who's placed all his eggs in that basket he needs to finish.
If the second or even win that thing for his campaign to be able to have a path forward so.
New Hampshire is also going to be critical to this race is well.
He -- -- a lot of rumblings under the radar about having that yet another person.
Comments on the outside to step into this race people like Jeb Bush for example.
And those who have been sitting it out and saying they're not interested.
You make of this talk at this point even though the field supposedly closed.
And the fact that Republicans are saying you know -- publishing we want to still think about yet another person who is not.
Actually thrown his or her hat in the ring.
Right they're two scenarios one is that because a lot of these filing deadlines for some later primaries.
Not coming up for for a few weeks someone could still throw their hat in the ring right now and because the -- Republicans are allocating their delegates proportionally until April 1.
That they won't lose a lot of ground that way they can still win the nomination even getting in at this very very late -- and even missing some the early states.
That seems to be less likely we saw that for example in Virginia what happened there.
And -- more those deadlines are coming up quickly the second scenario which is still a long shot but is getting a little bit more talked about recently is the idea of a brokered convention.
Which is if Mitt Romney for example or any of the candidates can't win the number of delegates that.
50% plus one of delegates that they need for the nomination.
You going to convention you have a brokered convention at which point.
That the delegates can nominate anyone and and ultimately be.
You you do have folks like Jeb Bush like Mitch Daniels Chris Christie those names come back in the play against still longshot at this point the system is set up that sort of prevent that from happening.
But this is unlike any field we've ever seen in terms of how how fluid it is and how fractured it is.
So -- liquidity going quite a distance over the next several months people we really know who's gonna come -- the clear -- all this.
That is absolutely the case in the -- the odds of this getting sort of wrapped up.
Very very quickly I think our our low the odds of it going into April perhaps even may certainly pass Super Tuesday are very very -- it looks like it's going to be.
Sort of a long slog of these candidates.
I -- -- obviously be monitoring all of the developments -- should be a very exciting campaign.
As we had exactly to 2012 in just a few weeks thank you very much for joining us today Merry Christmas to you.
Merry Christmas and.