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How important is New Hampshire and the nominating process for the next Republican nominee to take on.
-- the current sitting president in November to give us an idea of a history of the New Hampshire primary.
And -- -- New Hampshire this morning he's going to Skype with us.
Andrew Smith is the director of the University of New Hampshire survey center and are always good to have you on the program thank you for being here.
-- first of all let's take a look at the latest primary vote averages if you will.
And it taught me about what I'm looking at here this is the Republican presidential primary real clear politics average.
Showing Mitt Romney with 41%.
Not surprising we've been seen in our polls and that -- has been between 35 and 45% for the last year he's had the highest favorability ratings of any candidate in New Hampshire.
He's most voters second choice.
-- seen as the candidate best able to be President Obama so it's not surprising to see -- he still got apparently.
Comfortable lead over any of the other.
That's yet to double digit lead the next person in line would be Ron Paul than Newt Gingrich Jon Huntsman I want to tell everybody.
That this survey was taken between December 21 in January 2.
And it will be interesting to see in -- what happens after Iowa because.
Really Iowa New Hampshire are not connected but sometimes you can get a little bump didn't get a little momentum.
Coming out of one this situation to the next.
-- typically you don't see that happen on the Republican side because the electorates in New Hampshire and Iowa are completely different.
Biggest difference is that turn out so much higher in New Hampshire than it is -- Iowa in 2008 for example -- turn out -- was about 60%.
That's higher in some states have in the general election and that means it's not -- activists to determine who wins here its regular voters who don't pay that much attention to politics certainly don't understand him.
He had differences in policy between the various candidates -- -- big difference between hiring New Hampshire is that I have -- weapon of our electorate is far more conservative.
Particularly on social issues for example about 60%.
Of Iowa caucus voters identify themselves as you can tell local Christians in 2008 in New -- that was only about 23%.
So candidates who can do well at New Hampshire typically don't do well and in Iowa.
-- -- -- A little -- different candidates.
So far on the Republican side of the modern.
Primary -- that of one boat.
Iowa Caucuses and the new Hampshire Republican primary that was Gerald Ford in 1975.
And George Bush in 1992 and those were both sitting president there was.
Periodic comet that somebody would vote for because we -- -- the second one if convicted of line up.
It typically is the one that has more influence on him the actual -- yet.
That's very interesting and I'm since something happen on our lights out this morning I think people think that there is more of a connection between winning.
One -- -- the next Linda Sherry garner says that Mitt Romney wins New Hampshire as well as Iowa he can -- -- capital letters CA and win the nomination.
I'd like I would disagree with that at all because I know I was talking specifically about Iowa and hips -- predict but to.
Campaign going on simultaneously for a long period -- What you get passed -- him to go.
-- voters in those state had a bad experience.
-- -- -- -- -- -- -- Beat me the whole field gets shaken up because he candidates dropping out so by the time you get to South Carolina.
There's typically 384.
Candidate left it's a very very different -- but.
After an instant when the voters politically you can haven't -- paying that much and it.
So what eventually Republicans want to see is they want to have that they want to find the captain for their team -- their quarterback.
To run against us.
In November of 2008 they want a winner and how do you know who Witter is well what are we have been losers lose productivity to we'd be earlier -- -- Iowa.
And it won't be doing to him -- have a much better can't.
We needed South Carolina thought there.
And it's an interesting thing you're saying and so obvious that something that sometimes whose side have winners win and losers lose.
Anonymous writes -- live chat I think Rick Santorum is very intriguing there's a movement in -- growing behind him.
He looked very presidential after the Iowa caucus.
What are you hearing if -- thing.
Where you are about the different candidates which name are you hearing over and over.
Well it's it's really probably the event.
Anybody else I think it was almost a foregone.
Who's to hear that from people we have as a pollster -- -- I don't wanna go out -- that -- completely but Romney's got a lot of things going in favor.
The Santorum to affect that we saw it if it I would just isn't really taking off -- -- get a gift back to those kinds of voters that we have.
Social conservatives make up a small portion.
Of the New Hampshire electorate and are able to repeat that -- -- still not able to get out of single digits even post Iowa.
Back -- change over the weekend because voters.
Believe it or not haven't made up their mind yet.
-- the only other third 40% said they definitely decided who they're gonna vote for so and things that you may have -- shifted dramatically.
Over the last -- -- in previous years but the one thing that make this year a little bit different is that probably be at the front runner for the the past year.
He's the candidate with the most money he's the candidate with the best organization and now he's a candidate with momentum coming out of -- -- it's going to be tough for these other guys about.
Without organization of office.
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