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'On the Record'- On the Trail: Dick Morris breaks down strategy for GOP candidates in New Hampshire, South Carolina and Florida and makes predictions
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-- New Hampshire that is -- battle cry the GOP candidates leave I -- in the rearview Mir and the stage now set for the first in the nation primary.
There -- some -- RD moving beyond New Hampshire on the South Carolina.
What was special edition of on the record on the -- out.
And New Hampshire is the next critical stop on the road of the White House the candidates are already stormy in the state scrambling a lock down votes in time for the primary and then.
I'm South Carolina and then Florida the pace is picking up and it is a frenzied race to the finish.
So what critical -- the -- make next Dick Morris joins has been -- Good evening -- I Dick let's look down the line so far right now haven't seen their eyes on the race between -- Rick Santorum and governor Mitt Romney but he certainly is in the polls ahead in New Hampshire.
What does senator Rick Santorum camp -- -- have to do by Tuesday what Kenny do.
But first -- let's appreciate the uniqueness of what's about to happen over this coming weekend.
On Saturday night there's going to be 1 debate on Sunday morning another debate.
And that will be to my knowledge I could be wrong I try to think about it but Frye went on the -- today.
That this is the first time in American history.
That we've ever had political debates so close to an Election Day.
Consequence.
Usually in -- the general election there two to three weeks before.
And in other primary seasons you've not had nearly this kind of frequency of debates that may have been one but I -- -- call it.
So this debate whittled -- take place within 72 hours of the opening of the polls.
Will be very decisive.
And shared one person score a really good I can say one guy now that -- not in it.
One guy -- really major performance.
It could turn everything around -- everything's flexible until now.
New Hampshire he's been pretty solid Romney's always polled at forty or Bob.
Everybody else just in the teens so he's not being threatened.
Ron Paul has been running consistent second -- -- is now moved up past Gingrich for third place.
But hey debating is Newt Gingrich is strong -- so he could do really well.
I think -- what santorum's got to do is to explain why he's got this moment.
To simply say that I work hard and I go to everybody counts everybody's county and I sharp and every lunch -- isn't gonna hack it.
-- on qualifications for being -- president.
And I think -- to explain how he differs from Mitt Romney on the one hand and from Newt Gingrich on the other.
And I think that you can't just go on momentum.
When you're in a debate.
You know in terms of of the -- the -- as ambassador Rick Santorum coming into this race unlike a Governor Huckabee for years ago.
Who -- who won the Iowa caucus and was an evangelical and senator Santorum got a heavy evangelical vote.
Senator Santorum goes into New Hampshire as a Catholic and a very Catholic state does -- helped him or not.
I think it.
-- -- a little bit I think actually evangelical Protestants -- more conservative than most Catholics are in the country today.
On issues like abortion and stuff like that.
But I do believe that.
The problem Rick Santorum -- is that he's not where he is now because of the great issue like Herman Cain with 999.
Or unique demographic appeal like Michelle Bachmann.
Or a lot of money and a big state behind him like Rick Perry.
Or eloquence in the debate and fabulous debate performances like Newt Gingrich.
Or iconic plastic positions on key issues like Ron Paul he's there for only one reason he was the last one standing he was the last survivor.
And to the extent -- any other credential it's that he shook a lot of hands.
He's got a back field that he's got to put real substance behind him in these debates and explained why he is entitled to the momentum he's been getting.
Otherwise it -- -- -- quickly.
I suppose -- and governor Romney who is expected expected -- -- to win this.
This new this primary on Tuesday by -- significant margin suppose it's only about four points.
Is that still a win is a win is a win -- -- -- is it gonna be seen as a disappointment and he didn't he didn't -- perform as expected.
Well.
Some people would try to spin it is it disappointment there -- some people who say Romney whispered in Iowa when he -- the fact is a win is a win is to win.
And I believe the crucial thing -- would be who is in second place.
Because to beat Mitt Romney.
You gotta take him on one on one.
He got to get that in populations almost evenly divided between Romney voters and people that don't like ground.
And you've got to -- go one on one and not share your vote without the and that it right now you ever try section.
Of the anti Romney vote among Ron Paul Rick Santorum and Newt Gingrich.
-- Santorum finishes second.
Or Ron Paul does a very strong showing.
That's bad news for the debt that's good news for Romney.
Even if its first place margin is limited because it means he's facing three opponents in South Carolina not want.
And he probably can beat three he might be able to be too but he probably can't just -- want.
So the important question is -- second third and fourth and what are -- numbers.
In Iowa it seems.
Dick that speaker -- was duped by negative ads in the super pacs as well as a congressman Ron Wood on duty -- it.
But he -- -- whatever.
And in -- and -- back associate with supporters of governor governor Romney.
He said that is not gonna go negative and now Rick Santorum is going into New Hampshire riding a little bit of a wave.
And he says he's not gonna get -- go negative and maybe the others -- turn I would negative ads should he step it up and do negative ads.
Well I think that made -- made enough of a focus of not doing negatives and you know people in glass houses don't like to threats to guns and he's got that he would be very happy to have -- no negative deal.
I don't particularly think Romney -- been the main one running negative this is gonna do much of that this weekend.
Because remember it's not in his interest for any of these guys to lose.
He wants them all to lose a little he wants to win but he wants them all to stay in contention.
He wishes the best of -- Ron Paul and Rick Santorum and Newt Gingrich because as long as they -- -- in the race he's got to win a plurality.
And in most of these districts from here on out.
It's not strictly proportional representation of some guy wins a majority.
He gets all of those delegates and Romney is benefiting from a divided opposition.
You know the Roman empire slogan divide and conquer well that's Romney's by the way -- to mention that during the debates on Saturday night and Sunday morning.
On my web -- Dick Morris dot com I will be posting comments every sixty seconds about the debate I typically post about 200 of them.
And you can log -- and watched the debate with 1 -- -- my website with the other.
Drag and then let me ask you about the endorsement that they governor Jon Huntsman got in and neighboring state from the Boston Globe the -- essentially the state newspaper of Massachusetts.
And of course governor Huntsman has as a homer spends -- lot of time in New Hampshire is governor Huntsman a threat in New Hampshire to anyone.
Now he's going to be out of the race the day after New Hampshire.
The Boston Globe is a Democratic Party newspaper so it's like getting the endorsement of the devil in a race for haven't.
-- In terms of a -- In terms of the and rob -- it did you expect any sort of strong appearance with him is this really his audience or -- voters in New Hampshire.
I do expect a strong showing from him you have a look at -- New Hampshire license plate you know what it says live free or die.
And that could be Ron Paul's campaign slogan.
But I do think the people in New Hampshire -- sophisticated enough to understand.
That isolationism.
Is not the solution building a wall around the United States won't work.
Having a strong military is what defends this country.
And I think Ron Paul -- -- ration of the military is quite the opposite of living free and dying it's just a prescription for dying.
LeapFrog South Carolina who who what do you expect for what's a good strategy for each -- -- going into South Carolina.
Well in South Carolina.
The three -- Romney's have got to -- that duke it out and you're gonna need one of them to predominate.
At the moment Gingrich is by far the front runner in South Carolina.
Romney is second pole its third and Santorum fourth Santorum might have passed Paul at this point it may be passed Romney.
But the issue is whether it's gonna be sent to arm or Gingrich you can't have both of them moving ahead.
Only one guy can fit through that doorway.
And I think eventually what's gonna happen here as you're gonna find Newt and Santorum and Paul fighting among themselves because.
Is -- because you need only one of them to make it into Florida.
Think Florida is where this thing may well be decided and south -- the week before Florida.
So we know Romney's got a place in Florida he's like a guy getting a bye in the divisional playoff.
He's in the Super Bowl the question then is which of those three is his chief opponent.
And -- that's really going to be the subtext.
Of the South Carolina primary.
So I got an -- gonna do in Florida against the whichever opponent emerges as his chief opponent in Florida.
Well if it's one guy -- can have a tough time if it's -- -- coached.
So it depends on whether there's a decisive verdict in South Carolina.
On the -- Romney it's not that important that Romney wins South Carolina if he does it's good.
He then has three wins in a row going into Florida and the inevitability argument takes over.
But if he doesn't win South Carolina it's in that state evangelical state his religion works against them.
The key question is does he have a single opponent what is he still face three candidates.
And you know Ron Paul has his own independent base or he may never dropped out and he's the kind of guy that would never dropped out he would just keep losing.
And but Santorum and Gingrich -- only one of them is really gonna make it and I don't think both of them will be standing after South Carolina.
Dick thank you.
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