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Well it tells us the same thing we see typically in New Hampshire voters make up their minds at the -- -- Exit polls for you -- years have shown that somewhere between thirty and 40% of voters make up their minds in the last three days and it's.
Many as 20% make up their mind on Election Day so this is I'm sorry -- but this is no different from four years ago or eight years prior to that.
This is pretty typical as a pollster shows why we have such a difficult time predicting who's gonna win because frankly we're asking a lot of people what they're gonna vote for and they don't really know.
So does this mean weren't for a surprise finish I mean we -- very -- history of polling on me is the polling been accurate hitters have been all over the place.
The polling in New Hampshire is is typically not very accurate it's almost like the stop clock phenomena -- we're we're occasionally write them more often enough or wrong.
2008 obviously all of the polls had Obama winning in Clinton won but that is not unusable in in 1984.
-- Walter Mondale was expected to win but Gary Hart won by ten percentage points job John McCain in 2001 by 19% the polls were only showing him up by 8% on efforts that we typically see.
Pretty big shifts in the last few days or can teach kids in the last two days and that's largely because voters haven't made up their minds yet and they pay attention to those things that happened over this last that last point they really pay attention to the Braves independent voter in New Hampshire.
Is that any legitimate.
Is that a legitimate title or is there something more work there.
I think that's not an accurate description the technical term of the legal term is under -- and I think that better reflects what they are because when you look at those undeclared voters.
About a third of them are really Democrats in the act and behave like Democrats about a third -- really -- -- Republicans.
And they vote -- behave like Republicans and about a third that are truly independent.
Don't pay much attention to politics and don't show what typically in primaries so if you really have to look at those just three groups -- that tells us something about the electorate.
Princeton Jon Huntsman he's -- got a little bit of a rise right now but the group that he's doing best among those on declared voters that are really Democrat -- -- had a cap there.
And that would be good -- a way maybe he's he's closing the argument with them doing a good job of it we shall see tomorrow locking down -- -- a Democrat also -- 78% of people in New Hampshire believe Romney wins tomorrow.
Yeah that is the case and if that is true I guess it would be the margin of victory that will be true story line would not yeah.
Managing expectations I think is the biggest problem for the Romney campaign and to make sure that their voters don't -- you know he's got it in the bag I can stay home on Tuesday.
So he's he's really have to push hard over this weekend to make sure that he gets that margin is -- it's possible.
Again going back to 2000 John McCain had a nineteen percentage point margin and that was considered a pretty big blow out.
If -- he's able to equal that it's a blowout but -- only 10% I think it'll be.
Blood it'll it'll look like that -- let's.
Here that's an interesting point and he's brought about 4041%.
Right now statewide -- Some of the polling and I don't know if you if you were in the same category as Romney slipping something like ten points of the past ten days.
To two week -- do you find -- Either -- -- him slip about five or so percentage points in -- -- softens up a little bit but again that's typically the thing that happens couple weeks before the election people say oh -- the front -- he sounds good enough to me but as you get closer they start to pay attention to what the other candidates.
And the front runner if they're up by a wide margin typically settles back in the polls so I would.
Be surprised to see Romney dropped out of the 35% or so maybe even a little bit lower by the time Election Day comes around happy disappointment.
I'll certainly be a disappointment the -- people I think are really looking for 40% if they can get 40% I think it'd there's no way that they can really be criticized.
But that anything below 35 I think they -- -- they may have some problems.
Explaining well and.
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