Surprise Finish Possible in New Hampshire Primary?
Voters have history of deciding late
- Duration 4:35
- Date Jan 9, 2012
Voters have history of deciding late
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That's past the hour now independent voters -- the X-Factor in tomorrow's primary and especially in New Hampshire.
Latest polling numbers for university New Hampshire shows 44% of voters know who they're casting their ballot for tomorrow but.
But when you look at who was not quite sure 37%.
That many people could have a drastic effect in tomorrow's primary outcome.
One of the people conducted that poll is Andy Smith director university's New Hampshire survey center how you doing any good morning to you.
Doing great good morning what does this tell us to believe.
Well it tells us this.
I think we see typically in New Hampshire voters make up their minds at the very -- exit polls for -- for years have shown that somewhere between.
Thirty and 40% of voters make up their minds in the last three days and as many as 20% make up their mind on Election Day so this is ansari -- but this is no different from four years ago -- -- prior to that.
This is pretty typical as a pollster shows why we have such a difficult time predicting who's gonna win because frankly we're asking a lot of people -- they're gonna vote for and they don't really know.
So does this mean -- -- for a surprise finish I mean we could very well history of polling on me is the polling been accurate hitters have been all over the place.
The polling in New Hampshire is is typically not very accurate it's almost like the stop clock phenomena we're we're occasionally write the more often than not were wrong.
2008 obviously all of the polls had Obama winning in Clinton won but that is not unusual in in in 1984.
Walter Mondale was expected to win but Gary Hart won by ten percentage points job John McCain in 2001 by 19% the polls were only showing him up by 8% on -- -- we typically see.
Pretty big shifts in the last few days or can see shifts in the last few days.
And that's largely because voters haven't made up their minds yet and they pay attention to those things that happened over this last that last point they really pay attention to.
The phrase independent voter in New Hampshire is that any legitimate.
Is that a legitimate -- dollars or something more work there.
I think that's not an accurate description the technical term of the legal term is under -- and I think that better reflects what they are because when you look at those undeclared voters.
About a third of them are really Democrats in the act and behave like Democrats about a third -- really -- hub Republicans and they voting behave like Republicans.
And about a third that are truly independent.
Don't pay much attention to politics and don't show what typically in primaries so if you really have to look at those just three groups -- that tells us something about the electorate.
For instance John Huntsman he's on a got a little bit of a rise right now but the group that he's doing best among those on declared voters that are really Democrat -- -- a cap there.
And that would be that -- in a way maybe he's he's closing the argument with them doing a good job of it we shall see you tomorrow locking down.
-- pocket -- a Democrat -- sell 78% of people in New Hampshire believe Romney wins tomorrow.
Yeah that is the case and if that is true I guess it would be the margin of victory that will be a true story line would not.
Yeah managing expectations I think is the biggest problem for the Romney campaign and to make sure that their voters don't say you know he's got it in the bag I can stay home on Tuesday.
So he's he really have to push hard over this weekend to make sure that he gets that margin as big as possible.
Again going back to 2000 John McCain had a nineteen percentage point margin and that was considered a pretty big blowout if -- able to equal that it's a blowout but if it's only 10% I think it'll be blood it'll it'll look like that -- -- -- That's an interesting point and he's brought about 4041%.
Right now statewide but.
Some of the polling and I don't know if you you are in the same category as Romney slipping something like ten points of the past ten days.
To two week -- do you -- receive it.
-- -- slip about five or so percentage points and -- in softens up a little bit but again that's typically the thing that happens.
Couple weeks before the election people say oh yeah the front -- he sounds good enough to me but as you get closer they start to pay attention to what the other candidates.
And the front runner if they're up by a wide margin.
Typically settles back in the polls so I wouldn't be surprised to see Romney dropped out of the 35% or so maybe even a little bit lower by the time Election Day comes around -- -- disappointment.
I'll certainly be a disappointment the Romney people I think are really looking for 40% if they can -- 40% I think it'd there's no way that they can really be criticized.
But that anything below 35 I think they have they may have some problems explaining Andy Smith you're terrific -- we'll see how right you are very soon okay please don't hold because he's had -- A lot thank you had about Mary in just his lot of this stuff all right so.