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First let's go to Ilan Berman vice president of the American firm policy council live from our DC bureau.
-- mind you -- pray for Iraq ever articles about Iran and what's likely to happen.
With Iran Iran's nuclear weapons program and you posed the question can Iran be contained -- nuclear weapons Iran get nuclear weapons.
And be contained the same way we contain the Soviet union for sixty years you don't think so.
No I don't -- in a lot of it has to do with what we don't know.
We know for example that Iran is not a monolith that there's a lot of political factions within the country that are jockeying for position.
What we don't know is how many of them are strictly rational in the western sense of the word.
-- we certainly know that the Iranian military the Revolutionary Guards.
Can't acts in many ways like Blake to conventional military.
And can be expected to react he is fairly predictably in the event of a crisis but there are other more unpredictable strains -- the Iranian body politic.
Including the so called -- -- a society.
Of which the Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad as a member.
That this -- still more unpredictable more quite frankly messianic outlook.
And as a result since you don't know.
Essentially who the moving parts are and how they're gonna act.
It becomes very very hard to treat -- the way we -- the Soviet Union to assume we can deter them in contain them and under any circumstance in any time.
Okay can we now -- the conversation has continued in our round what are we knew about Iran and we kind of got to the point where it's really two actions bomb Iran.
Or let Iran get the bomb.
The talking through those two options and that they -- the pluses and minuses of each won their -- minuses but talk me through bomb Iran let Iran get the bomb.
Right why didn't quite frankly there's actually a couple more.
One of them has to do with leveraging real economic warfare against Iranian regime.
To get them to change their behavior.
And the other is act essentially acquiescing to it a nuclear Iran and allowing a nuclear Iran to dominate the region these are I think sub -- options.
But they're certainly out there in the public medium but -- you know if you look at the two extremes if you're looking at.
An Iran with a bomber but over the bombing of Iran these are I think -- very very hard choices that are facing.
The United States and American allies abroad.
It's very clear that a nuclear Iran or even a -- nearly nuclear Iran.
Belligerent revolutionary regime in control the world's most devastating weapons.
Is -- -- transform the middle Middle East in a way in a way that we really can't even imagine.
Any you know -- and -- profoundly negative to ourselves and our posture there and also to our allies.
But the bombing of Iran carries tremendous risks among other things because we don't know the entirety of the Iranian nuclear complex.
We don't know how to get -- it and we don't know how effective military action will be.
We do expect though.
That any sort of military action on our part -- on the part of the Israelis.
Would result in severe.
Retaliation on the part of the Iranian regime.
Whether that involves terrorism here at home.
It's not clear.
But certainly do you Iranians are involved enough rogue behavior that we should give serious thought to what it might look like when they start to retaliate.
And man in -- you said -- -- -- -- that good piece -- background sanctions and there may be a third option -- what -- -- third option this is sanctions are somehow going to get.
The current regime to change their behavior in -- nuclear program free talk.
And our regime change.
Well a little bit about and this is why it's sub optimal in my estimation because we haven't really articulated.
In a candid fashion what sections are intended to do.
We've seen over the last several weeks leveraging real serious economic pressure on the Iranian regime become reality President Obama signed into law.
Sanctions against -- Central Bank which is essentially intended to cut off.
-- the financial conduit through which Iran does all of its oil trade away from the international community.
And we've also seen -- to talk about an Iranian oil -- Which means that essentially the export that Iran relies on for 80% of -- of its gross domestic product.
Would essentially become.
And non tradable commodity in the Euro -- these are.
Big things and these are big things it should be explored.
But the question of how much we apply economic pressure depends a lot on what we want to achieve what it.
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