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Brit Hume's Commentary: Odds for Romney Rivals

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  • Description

    Is a GOP underdog victory possible?

  • Duration 2:26
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Whether race stands from senior political analyst for him getting -- -- welcome back thank you.

Some conservatives are hoping that have Rick Santorum and Newt Gingrich could just make a strong enough showing or better yet win in the South Carolina primary on Saturday.

It would set the stage for a long struggle with the outcome on certain.

The hard truth though is that the best opportunity for an underdog overtake a clear front runner is in Iowa or New Hampshire where a candidate running on a shoestring.

Can have a real chance for an upset showing big enough to start a major challenge.

After that he gets harder as the pace quickens the states gets bigger and the need for money and organization intensify this.

-- not -- forces still have -- regime in 1976 when Ronald Reagan lost the first six contests to sitting president Gerald Ford.

Reagan finally won in North Carolina and went on to win a string of late primaries in nearly overtook the president.

But Reagan didn't have to worry about anything like the Ron Paul phenomenon and he was the alternative -- from the start unlike today's challengers to Mitt Romney and in the end.

He lost.

The non Romney right might look ahead to Florida and -- called Democrat Gary Hart who used a series of hastily assembled airport rallies.

To win the stating in front runner Walter Mondale in 1984.

But Hart had one New Hampshire and in the end he lost to.

So it may not be impossible for Gingrich -- Santorum to overtake Romney and -- but something like that has never happened to -- Bring you look -- Santorum for example and at the end of this week they're still certifying that vote in Iowa he could actually win Iowa he could actually wanting you know -- he got a feel for recruit for for -- central a -- here because.

He was kind of snake bitten I mean he did have a good showing he was -- arising -- surprising showing right.

Unfortunately for him Mitt Romney who had been expected for most of this practice this whole election cycle to do next to nothing and -- -- Appeared to come out ahead of him so he should -- had to share the spotlight with the front runner.

And then in New Hampshire they didn't seem to be any real momentum for Romney -- -- -- barely there and -- that he never -- He can -- -- -- and he never really.

He never really caught on and he's still struggling to do that he's got still got Gingrich in his way and -- on his way and to a lesser extent Perry in his way so.

You know he picked any also -- it also turns out by the -- Santorum finished fourth not this in New Hampshire so he.

You know early results -- -- shifted even both places he might -- he might have done better had they not but.

That's that's the -- looking suffered concerned Brit.

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