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Special Report Online: 2/15

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    Wisconsin recall vote a referendum on Obama?

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Welcome to another edition of special report on -- on John Roberts filling in for -- -- tonight we're here with our all star panel Stephen Hayes is with this along with AB Stoddard and Charles Krauthammer.

And lot of here's -- fixing a and technical difficulty we're having try to get your comments up and running.

But we will get those up and running his -- wanna fixes that they'll get -- little interactive part of yet no pressure we're trying to get interactive part of this happening here.

But we wanna start off by talking about was -- and this President Obama was there touting the resurgence -- American manufacturing this is a really interesting thing.

Because for so many years.

American companies have been outsourcing shipping jobs in manufacturing overseas and -- segment it's not such a good idea.

Maybe we need to bring it back is this going to be do you think -- an election year boon for President Obama that at the same time that -- Trying to say that our policies got the economy back up and running American manufacturers are actually doing something to employ Americans.

Think a lot of that has to do with the fact that the principal.

Outsourcing location in China.

Is experiencing.

Rises.

-- hikes in the amount of pay that workers are getting.

And in working conditions so that.

After what thirty years of this.

The American rates are becoming somewhat competitive.

And when you consider the shipping costs -- you eliminated from manufacture.

In the US you can actually reverse the process and I think that's.

What accounts for what's happening to me it's happened every desolate country Japan started out after that the Second World War -- very cheap labor and of course.

It as it developed the labor costs rose who would have to compete at the high independent he gave -- -- and stuff to other countries.

Korea and now China so I think that those developments are inevitable and now is having its effect in the US it's a real effect.

-- -- Obama take the credit for that he's got to actually nothing.

To do with it but that's what presidents who do you get the economy is strong you -- the -- if it's -- to get blamed.

That's four or you -- that didn't happen on my watch.

I think that I'm.

Even if he doesn't take credit for your just gonna hear a lot -- Talk about the revival in manufacturing and you're gonna hear the word in sourcing over and over and over again for the president this year.

It's a good buzz word for him and he's just gonna keep holding events the White House not in sourcing and he's gonna go to those plants and that's factories for companies that have done this that if brought their jobs back home and there -- going to be in the right states apparently Stephen Hayes has allowed the president to land in the state of Wisconsin.

And take his pitch there and he might -- again and -- same thing about Wisconsin has of the president's approval rating there.

Hasn't been a little better actually than in a lot of other -- places.

That matter to him on politically over the last year so he still has a lot of rooms to watch it.

Two to go though and that's why he's fighting -- -- but.

There will be other visits to other places.

That had.

That a move their jobs stock to the US and he will be talking a lot about and you hear the word in sourcing even if he doesn't -- and I think he's gonna.

Really champion and anyone who is.

Not shipping jobs.

Overseas and he goes there at the same time that the recall movements is it is he's going on and and governor Scott Walker just asked for a two week extension to try to.

Vet all of these signatures -- doesn't seem like he's got to hope of turning his back his.

540000.

Needed to recall right and there are almost in a million of them but to talk about -- and the interesting dynamic it's going on there now.

Where Scott Walker's trying to make this recall election a referendum on President Obama.

Yet he is reservation -- I think you're right he's not they're not -- and they're not gonna deny the recall and they'll have the five Democrats we'll have a 540000.

Signatures necessary.

There are a lot of fraudulent signatures and I think what you hope continues to shine a light on the fact that there are so many problematic signatures but you're right in the auction.

We'll take place it's a very interesting time for a number of reasons both because of -- -- -- importance on the national stage suggestion by the president's.

Presence there today.

But also because -- what's been -- -- Wisconsin there from the last year and this has been up pitched battle in a state where politics has usually been pretty friendly.

And people in Wisconsin you know my neighbors my former neighbors.

Hate each other based on the kind of political fights that they -- and there is incredible intensity on both sides of this dispute and I think.

One of the things that's working and Scott Walker's favorite.

Is that it's clear that the reforms are working that's indisputable.

Municipalities are saving money.

We -- in some cases people who said -- -- it was going to explode the deficit like Milwaukee mayor Tom verifying that he has.

An additional 24 million dollars that he didn't expect to have as a direct result of these reforms.

-- I think that I think weighs in favor of Scott Walker at this time going into these elections.

Is that even if -- there were so many dire predictions before the reforms actually were implemented.

You missed that the sky was falling people we're gonna have to pay 10% of their their take home salary.

Teachers were going to be out on the streets.

Some of that attack and and in fact what -- what has happened as a result of these reforms that.

They avoid a lot of layoffs of public sector workers so these are the kind of arguments I expect market continues -- What it was similar comments in just just a second but if Scott Walker is it is.

Again betraying this is a -- battle.

It on a referendum on a battle within a referendum on president Obama's saying that this if he wins it will be devastating for President Obama.

Republicans will gather the momentum and they'll win big in November we think Charles.

Considering Obama starring somewhere arising.

I'm not sure -- his best approach.

Then these hostage to Obama the way Obama's hostage to the economy I think.

The arguments that Stephen makes.

Quite strong I mean if there were these terrible predictions of how bad.

How this guy would collapse would follow -- these reforms were implemented and in fact it has prevented layoffs I think that's not an easy case to make is you gotta go.

You know city by city town by town but it's I think it's a much stronger argument in linking things to Obama.

And I think it the import for the country -- an -- -- Wisconsin we'll go in the general election.

I think the -- that Wisconsin was ground zero.

For this reform.

This is new this new issue.

The power of government unions and how they work.

-- State's Chris Christie started on that in New Jersey but Wisconsin is where it really happen and happen first.

And he created an explosion I think.

The walker succeeds and he wins this recall that it will.

Keep that these state rebellions alive if he loses.

Who have a real chilling effect on any reformers.

In any of these other states where unions are strong.

Lot of it actually had some success the government back -- -- so we wanna go to some comments to this on off the topic of Michigan Wisconsin that we can certainly give give back -- -- -- we can leave it behind.

This was about Michigan comes from -- and while the negative on Romney at least 63%.

And that doesn't include tonight.

What happened a fair and balanced fox is -- losing -- as I say that and that's why don't they get around it.

You know a couple of weeks ago a few months ago we were all supposedly in the tank for Romney to -- my head is spinning here I can't decide who I'm supposed to be.

You know I shill for maybe I should get it in writing songs keep a consistent script I think what we're doing.

I hate to say because it sounds defensive it happens to be true.

Is trying to do analysis I don't think that we have a dog in the hunt for either.

Romney or Santorum the -- Santorum.

Comes out of nowhere wins three state who's ahead in Michigan which is.

Romney's home turf we've -- explaining that -- you gotta say.

-- Santorum is doing something right and Romney is doing something wrong.

I guarantee that.

Some viewers are probably people associated with the Santorum campaign.

We'll take my.

Free political advice given to the Romney campaign as evidence that.

I'm in effect for all around me when -- When I'm obsessed I -- -- that the polls -- shift in the polls for Rick Santorum after winning these three you know.

Winds that were supposed to be beauty contests and they didn't have -- delegate.

-- -- amendment didn't you know didn't.

-- -- and help them in the mouth and Romney still had -- You know this look at what's happened and number and in less than ten days he had a commanding lead in Michigan it's gone.

He won the -- -- straw -- nobody cares.

He won the Maine caucuses nobody cares it doesn't mean that -- Mitt Romney won't win Michigan means he's in real trouble.

As Charles pointed out he's been an assignment he has the high favorable some Harvard name recognition -- -- he had an operation of its five years older more.

There's no excuse to be behind Rick Santorum Michigan and it is of enormous consequence because of its proximity to Super Tuesday it really threatens a monster approaches that threatens -- in the -- And it's it's a real problem for him I heat -- did not have a commanding lead -- -- last time.

He's running on his -- people aren't really listening they have seen there are a lot of Republicans -- like that auto bailout I'm not saying that.

That more of them are not opposed but some of them may not agree.

With his assessment company mom died including the governor the governor he hopes to endorse -- -- said it would have been devastating -- on the economy if if they hadn't been bailed out of time.

Time is already running short -- -- -- move -- a couple of other topics that somebody agrees with what you said -- coming from Robin Wisconsin says it stinks here.

Friends hate each other -- -- wins -- -- -- -- gas prices would have burned bush.

At the state.

Let's in the keystone.

Because there's been a lot of moves on that was being attached to the transportation bill -- that's been kicked down until the end of February there was this.

Other attempts.

Stephen just put it on the president's radar -- saying he can't release anything from the strategic petroleum reserve and let's see approves the pipeline.

Are Republicans going to get this back.

In front of congress are they gonna get it back in from the president some -- the.

Pesticide that I don't think they're going to get it back in -- way that -- -- to sign it because -- such a cave for him unless we see gas prices act you know.

475.

Or or something you know astronomical relative to where they are right now I don't think he's likely to pull back or find some compromise.

On the issue I do you think Republicans will use that I think they'll use it extensively and and you know what they need to puncture argue it was interesting with -- Jay Carney yesterday.

At the briefing where he talks about.

The effect on the economy of high gas prices -- -- suggests that you know we really deeper recession than anybody thought and one of the reasons that the recovery is slower than people on -- these high gas prices.

And he talks about it as -- away there's as if there's no policy impact whatsoever on the decisions.

That the president has make Republicans I think can make a very compelling case.

That in fact.

These four decisions.

Are in some way.

Major contributor to the to the reason that we have these high gas prices it's not -- certainly.

What's happening in the Middle East has affected gas prices but it's not at all determined by what's happened overseas the decisions that are made here.

The -- a couple of issues -- very -- opponents -- couple points a list that opponents of the Keystone Pipeline make -- and that is that.

If we don't build the Keystone Pipeline candidate won't develop the oil sands there won't be the intended environmental destruction and also well of the United States.

Doesn't buy Canada's oil nobody else is going to be spent a lot of time in candidate Charles what of the Canadians -- -- about all of us are they are they not going to develop the oil sands because.

We're not buying their oil.

To the degree we would do if keystone -- I abused or -- in my day and there are tuning PS which is that you dollar version of that.

Look of this argument is preposterous because the Canadian prime minister went over to China.

Just a couple of weeks ago with a delegation.

Obviously to explore the fact that if the US is not gonna take it -- and that's not considered.

On this unbelievable this is inconclusive likes having Arabia describe what -- was -- that was that really was edible do you think try to put pressure Canada is not.

Canada this is sort of the Saudi Arabia of oil sands.

It'll be a source of independence money and energy for generations it's not gonna show that.

It of course we'll go to the -- to the west.

2 to the Pacific Ocean that they'll build a pipeline if necessary.

I think the reason it might be.

The less than concrete now is because they cannot imagine.

That the United States who shoot itself in the foot indefinitely.

And then even Obama who's a hostage.

To his -- before elections will surely.

-- what is so obviously the national interest after election from the Republican obviously.

We -- so we could be unanswered that there is no question that Canada.

He's exported here's here's a comment from Kevin in Calgary who says we're full speed ahead up here -- -- serious about China so we look and -- we talked about this.

On the Fox News Channel with with what we see going on in Iran and the tensions -- there is is it is -- Wrong not to build a pipeline that would help to ensure if not a domestic source of energy at least a continental source of energy.

There will be tremendous pressure on the president to to broaden.

Higher energy resources to changes policies and to bring in the Keystone -- online because it.

Detentions -- straight -- even if the Iranians don't.

Really.

Shut it down and and pull the trigger and will stay in the news and this will be -- constant threat.

The in the bigger -- -- move the price of our world we all these fluctuations.

And all this spooking the markets itself but.

Under parliamentary Wyoming where the president -- -- -- has -- visited every.

-- hit it glamorous -- I know everything that's ever gone straight.

But I I would say that about right now just to get it down to a really inside baseball you know -- -- for -- for the viewers.

There's just no they'll transportation bills in serious trouble and there's no vehicle right now for keystone seven and a fine and I don't -- they can but.

And I want right now that the Republicans and.

He'll be totally external political pressure that would drive if the president order reversed himself and look.

But you know I think it's unlikely maybe it'll happen he's got -- a constituency inside the Democratic Party that's going to be making the argument for him to do it big labor took -- an -- a full page -- And political before the decision saying we want you to do this so he's going to have this tension inside his -- between labor and environmentalists.

Asking him to do this he could -- -- potentially find a way out by you know that way knowing that he can please at least.

Some part of his face I still think it's unlikely because it would be such a huge case we talked about this.

So offline -- in a commercial break -- have a few minutes ago.

With -- what's going on with Iran with.

Six EU nations saying we're canceling our oil contracts with you.

We're not gonna buy anymore oil from Iran after the end of July Enron saying whoa -- you can't fire us because we quit we're gonna cut off your oil long before that.

And now with this move to try to boot Iran out of the swift clearinghouse.

Is there a chance to dock we did not happen to -- as he's done a control but the supreme leader how many may just say okay fine.

That's all you all were close in the Strait of Hormuz.

It's -- I think it would be the height of irrationality and could be that the Iranians are that irrational.

But I think it's so clear.

That the United States and this administration is extremely reluctant -- be determined.

Not to get into another war.

And the only thing that would trigger America.

Going right into -- war and attacking Iran knocking on some naval facilities.

Air defenses would be a closing the Strait of Hormuz if if the US navy has one mission in the world.

It is -- to keep international.

Water ways open that is what we do we're the ones who guaranteed the freedom of the seas.

And there's no question that we would immediately react on the other hand if -- rational -- in which you want is.

If there is ever going to be a US involvement in a shooting involvement in the war you want it to be.

The fault of the Israelis -- -- the Israelis to be -- in order to have to attack in some way and then the in the chaos in the retaliation the US senators -- war reluctantly.

Feeling that Israel was dragged into a conflict.

Which would help they run it makes no sense whatsoever.

So I think however ideological and irrational of the regime can be.

And has been I think it's sort of irrational these terrorist attacks around the world positions showing them from the nonetheless they can be that crazy.

Thanks to close the straits and then he'd invite overwhelming attack from the United States which is probably the only country in the world that can actually.

Destroy its nuclear capacity.

To a significant extent.

And that and the White House is I mean they've made this very clearly made made clear that this is the redlining and we had.

Killing of soldiers in Iraq and Afghanistan that hasn't been the right the Red Line we've had -- support for terrorist groups both in Iraq and Afghanistan.

And globally that hasn't been the Red Line you know you've got these reports of Iran -- casing US embassy.

US embassies in Europe that hasn't been the Red Line but this one has -- they've made it clear they've invited recently in the past couple days.

-- reporters and producers to go over on ships in the region.

Did I think to demonstrate in part that they're very serious about this because I think it would have at the end of the damn electoral impact.

If if the straits of Hormuz were to be closed it could greatly threatened what's new in the presence of letting gas -- -- and it was.

Seven dollars is seven dollars and everywhere would be perhaps they have modest -- right projection for the increase.

On the subject of Iran and the nuclear program.

I mean this was a real -- today win.

When did -- job was delivered Dave box would have wrapped in a -- and in it it head.

The very first domestically produced -- in fuel -- they've completed the fuel cycle where do you think this is -- if it.

Well I think that we can't know exactly where it is and and they they have nice elbows and a lot of white coat send me.

Did that they -- put on quite a show but it really doesn't matter because what is the bottom line the bottom line is whether or not.

The Iranians are -- capacity or nearing capacity Israelis are worried about this.

You know window of immunity and and -- and unity and -- and and really.

Feel pressed to take some action soon.

Iranians know -- -- might be trying to focus of these terrorist acts we are going to be Canada's Charles as we we don't really know how but we will.

Com and that's why.

It doesn't really matter where they are.

In their progress and I also concur that it would.

-- we would be unnecessary.

To to use the straight of Hormuz be because they're going very anticipating this conflict.

Looked like it should come into the -- because I could only stuff my computer for certain amount of time we're getting so many comments coming in Vicky Brooksville Kentucky says if we unilaterally disarm our nukes.

Which is being talked about the Pentagon may be getting down to the boldest plan will Begin to 30405000.

Doesn't that just embolden Iran.

You know I'm not an expert on that but I would think -- -- -- what I -- attention -- -- tonight he'll have to cut I would think that it went very is Wimbledon.

And.

When did you say that seeing nuclear materials.

Gift wrapped his highly reassuring.

Take we've had to do that in bright colors the way yellow PS video -- -- of you know it's a terrorist -- you figure it's communities for the most we've been kind of things look -- the the president we're not so if you write in and of itself is not a threat but it does show that the -- -- quite sophisticated.

In their nuclear technology doesn't have a direct application.

To building a nuclear bomb.

But -- there's this it's going into the Tehran research reactor for medical.

Research graduate medical -- -- he had try to work out a deal where we would take.

Their uranium the French and the Russians would put it in the rise -- said -- Iran.

And that when at least this phone stuff but now running -- hit it I didn't.

Doesn't rely on anybody which gives it a measure of independence and -- what about what about -- this new facility that often that a judge declared fully operation this -- facility in the holy city of comb which is going to seek uranium enriched to 20%.

Which is much greater than he needed for electricity generation and not far.

From the 90% that you need to make a nuclear bomb where where UCLA go yes it's quite advanced.

And it inside of amount.

You put stuff inside -- a mountain that means that you you're.

You're preparing the day when it can't be touched and that is the clock.

That is the Israelis are worried about it's not.

The moment at which Iran becomes nuclear capable.

It's the moment at which the stuff that will allow Iran to go nuclear.

He's so well protected.

They've never in the future could be Israel successfully attackers so 21 science 21 can can 21 says when do you think Israel are possibly the US will attack Iraq.

Our secretary of defense has spoken about it.

He said to the world.

There's a strong likelihood it will happen April may or June which means.

And we may not be exact timetable but it means for the Israelis -- clock is running now and the zone of immunity that's what.

Panetta spoke about the zone of immunity.

Meaning the point at which it's under the mountain.

Can't be attacked and the Israelis.

From.

The very non until eternity defenseless against Iranian nukes that's the moment they -- in what happens.

Think if Israel attacks -- I mean.

This is that this is that this 64000 -- question you know the United States has very clearly been trying to send a message that -- Ryan should not do this.

Does that mean that we wouldn't support them if they do does that mean that we would try what that -- our message after such an attack would be.

Well we warned them and they did it anyway and I don't have any sense of where the administration is on this if you read the New York Times today Dennis Ross.

Who she was a senior National Security Council official in the Obama administration until very recently.

Made what I thought was a very soft arguments are you for additional diplomacy suggests that there was time and and Dennis Ross it to it's important to note.

Is the -- was the hawk and the Obama administration.

For the first two and a half years that he was there so if he's making this kind of argument.

Publicly any end in a way where he's not constrained by the fact that he still working in the White House.

What does that tell you about where the rest of the White House is right.

-- 88 B you handle this comment because you are now a defense expert.

Tonight.

Colleen need targets calling in New York asks what happens if Israel attacks and -- I.

Think that they will see counterattack.

No matter what if they if they make an attempt and and and to the point.

But you know I can't predict what's gonna happen I just think Iranians are waiting for the provocation.

To Steve's point.

That's the most interesting thing is what the US government's doing to try to position itself to let Iran know that.

We don't want this to hop and we eat and and she'll play at the press know.

That are experts disagree with -- -- experts about.

The amount of progress uranium estimate how much time we have left to win -- on an immunity comes.

And and and this kind of dithering and disagreement.

Is is just it's not.

Hey this is not helpful diplomacy it's it's not deterrence it's not anything I mean.

It really is fascinating because -- -- to make a decision without us it doesn't matter what we agreed to Charles.

Charles just what happens if Israel tries and fails what happens.

It will suffer.

Serious terror attack by -- running in the missiles.

However Israel has the arrow.

Anti missile system -- could not be that devastating but but if you attacked Iran trying to disable its nuclear program.

And you don't do it.

And yet live I started all of those -- have they'll have some impact on some facilities.

I assume what the question is if you don't have this unity -- impact if it sets them back only a few months rather than a year or two which is what the Israelis would hope for.

-- an easy Israelis will try again later if they after the Israelis.

Can't live under and Iran in nuclear weapon that's why they -- likely attack and they are aware of the fact had weathered the first attack or whatever.

The only -- if it turns out to be doesn't succeed there will be.

On the receiving end of retaliation.

For some reason that the moment now could be a rather opportune one from the Israelis.

Is the real threat to retaliate -- from Hezbollah and Lebanon which has about 30000.

Rockets but.

Because of the civil war in Syria because of the fact that Hezbollah.

It's a client of Syrians and on the wrong side of that conflict have a lot of Lebanese.

-- -- -- And then an attack on news reel in those circumstances would be purely.

As an instrument of a Romanian diplomacy and not for any Lebanese reasons.

They may be restrained in their response because that they could get a revolution.

A revolt against Hezbollah in Lebanon from people who say.

Why are we involved in Iran's war why are we suffering because -- -- -- with the way things are doing you've.

I don't wonder through the -- we're right about -- took the -- we got just a minute left let's get a final thought from offers well I you know at -- point is a very good one and I actually think that -- you know despite what Leon Panetta said.

There's a there's a strong argument that this could happen sooner than that I -- I would not be surprised if we wake up in a month.

And we learn that that these attacks have happened precisely because.

They did geo political state of play is.

In the Israelis favor right now and it may not be for much longer mean things can change very quickly and it you know.

I think Charles assessment of what we -- things stand right now is right and if you've got loses interest an article in the New York Times magazine two weeks ago where.

Basically did the authors suggested that the Obama -- -- the Israelis believe the Obama administration -- given an agreement the Obama administration it's usually has gone to great lengths to suggest that they in fact have not.

The question is whether the Israelis believe the first signal -- the second.

I think Steve is right -- -- we're gonna wake up one day in the next couple months and discovers world war three I I think.

That Steve is right that the Israelis are -- if you read what they're saying.

Are worried about what Charles has talked about the impenetrable.

Bunker that would protect their weaponry -- ever.

And that it is that sooner is going to be better for them and so.

We don't know why Panetta gave us that's Pacific time window but it certainly seems if you've read about what if you read what the Israelis are saying loud and clear.

They're saying the window's closing rapidly and that it planned for a long time quick final -- -- It's not -- it could cause a regional war will now because -- world war by any means.

It's not our -- 1914.

Because.

Iran has no great power allies who will -- did you mean militarily so -- -- going to be alone with -- little.

Its clients Syria Hezbollah and Hamas all of whom are on their heels right now.

And if Iran is Smart it will not attack the United States in retaliation because that would involve us.

He would retaliate against Israel and it could remain limited engagement now of course you know irrationality is possible and you can predict.

-- means you have to close the Strait of Hormuz or attack Americans in the naval facility in my -- that would be suicide because it would.

Occasion American intervention almost -- to listen.

The first world war and the sinking of the Lusitania you don't do that if you irrational but who knows the Iranians haven't always been rational.

Charles AB Steve it's always great to see thanks so much for sitting in for an extra half hour.

Thanks to everyone who commented tonight thanks alana who got me on line.

Lot of our comment here is a lot of our folks online wanna see lot of host the show.

So she'll be here next Wednesday for the online edition.

I kid you regret there and back again next week thanks so much we'll see -- --

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