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GOP Race Hinges on Michigan Toss Up

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    Chris Stirewalt and Bill Hemmer discuss the Michigan primary

  • Duration 9:24
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You -- you end up with a Romney victory in Michigan tomorrow.

I think you'll see Santorum getting a very different second look.

That was former house speaker Newt Gingrich campaigning down in Super Tuesday state Tennessee.

Saying -- if former Pennsylvania senator Rick Santorum stumbles today.

In the Michigan primary he to be in a world of trouble come next week.

This is power play Internet and you can tell but if I'm here inside the mother ship in New York it must be an Election Day and I'm not here to help the guys in the brain or are on the decision to -- In the nerd tank.

Sort out what's going on with the votes today in Michigan and Arizona it's going to be a pretty big deal -- -- hinge point the pivot point.

For the Republican race -- start happening fast and furious starting.

Right now as the votes are being.

Cast in Arizona and Michigan.

And you know what that means.

Internet that means that it is hammer time for Bill Hemmer and I had -- -- -- Bill Hemmer who is the anchor of America's Newsroom Internet who you love.

Who also you'll see tonight.

Doing his Fred Astaire retained by that big board punching the county is moving up the states telling us who's voting and why.

How does he do that that's what the Internet wants to now.

Good to be back with you -- couple observations just based on that -- Gingrich is getting ready for Super Tuesday SC SC gets easier he asked ability yes to dig into Santorum somewhere.

Whether it's Oklahoma.

So he does -- -- and Santorum on what side he's -- from the other if he can damage Santorum.

And help Romney out today in Michigan that helps Gingrich in seven days do you like stock car racing at all.

I do how I turned it off last night -- -- one half court.

OK that was like.

Courted attend yeah I was not 45 -- the other -- -- for the real television until 1 o'clock in the morning well in stock car racing drafting.

Is the key because you get behind another driver.

And you get in there and you get that sweet spot and then you try to sling shot past him.

The ballad of Ricky Bobby told it told -- the very -- but right now you have a position where the same Foreman Gingrich have been slingshot and off of each other.

Gingrich defeats Romney in South Carolina and then stumbles and when he falls down Santorum.

Comes up and goes into the front now Gingrich.

Is waiting a week ahead for Santorum figuring that if he loses today.

In Michigan but if he loses today Gingrich will be -- is an accessory can argue well you've matured affronts I do yes plays you'll -- does the other.

Question I have for you and I don't want -- talk specifically about Michigan gives you zeroed in on some areas and I've zeroed in on some errors that we think are the keys -- determining the outcome tonight.

We are only three weeks removed from Missouri right that's correct and in Missouri.

Keep your mind fresh here Santorum.

Won every county yes -- is Missouri that different from rural Michigan.

Missouri is not that different but that.

Election was very different that was a non binding it didn't count so the only people who went out to vote -- people who wanted to make a statement they wanted to make a statement for Rick Santorum.

Very small turnout 250000 or zero point people so these were activists who said we -- -- make a statement for -- -- their voice was heard.

In Michigan though they know that this is binding they know that there are thirty delegates at stake they know that this actually affects the outcome of what's going on so you know.

Mitt Romney doesn't get.

A lot.

Passion for among his voters he's an acceptable choice but he's not the passionate choice.

A blog -- -- so that but those folks knowing that there's something on the line are gonna come out this -- to add to that is that Romney did not advertising Missouri -- Now okay -- -- and everything's been happening in Michigan okay and millions of dollars to two counties that we are most keen on yes but come -- And -- counting you go first okay so can't -- me is very important that's Grand Rapids as -- -- talking met on the real television today and that's Jerry Ford country yes that's residential library capital of of western Michigan.

If you will in those lot of votes to an account more than there are more votes and can canning and there aren't any other county outside of the Detroit metro it's got more it's got if you put it together with Ottawa Canada which is next to work that's on the Michigan Lake Michigan lake -- You've got as many but more votes than Iran Wayne county which is Detroit proper.

So that's a huge -- of votes but they're split.

So intent -- they're more moderate their Ford Gerry Ford con Republicans Mitt Romney did very well when you get further over and -- candy which is all part of the metro area this New Zealand Holland these are Dutch reform evangelical.

Serious Christians.

And Rick Santorum should be able to cut into his numbers so we have concluded -- -- they watch those two counties can -- -- the west Ottawa that's that's a place ten but you've got a better economic numbers you have an even better story line.

-- true but.

We'll watch out to see whether -- not -- If Santorum doesn't really well and Ottawa county right if he cuts in two Romney in Kent counties in for -- good night right.

The other story line is just north of Detroit not Oakland County so much but to the east where.

You have McComb county sterling hi eighths and these -- Reagan never -- -- yes ten -- appeals to directly.

And still watch the returns -- to see whether or not that.

You know is Santorum edging out Romney or is it vice Versa I think about it if Romney shuts down Santorum -- these tumors that we're talking about.

Romney wins a state that's my -- well sure sure sure but think about.

The calculus of this new ad that's out today -- and we'll hear the -- later we'll talk about the -- later.

Because we're gonna be joined by congressman from Michigan we're gonna talk about how it's playing out there but think about this ad that's -- -- Where it was targeted at union Democrats house.

Saying punish Mitt Romney for opposing the GM and Chrysler bailouts.

And targeting Democrats for Santorum.

As he plays for the -- clearly -- -- you're -- -- have your very clear so I write for the eastern part Oakland County.

And it's for all from -- come -- now the problem for him though is that that hurts him with those very conservative.

People who do not like unions in places.

Out west in Kalamazoo it doesn't -- favors to be seen is appealing to UAW votes unless those voters there are taking him up on the social issues that he's he's either been asked about -- here he is highlight in his campaign.

-- -- that's Michigan.

We did not believe do we than Arizona's give -- much of a battle.

Well same form hasn't been to their nobody's really competed there in the big challenge of course.

In Arizona for -- form is that this is -- Barry Goldwater.

Libertarian -- -- this is not a socially conservative state as much as it is a live free or die rattle -- kind of state and that's that's how they roll.

And it's not been a great place percent from the other thing of course is there's a pretty substantial Mormon population there is in the -- counties especially.

And but Romney looks like Keaton the last polls we saw 1516.

Clubs around the Utah border also -- the east of Phoenix you're.

-- precisely right about that Michigan has not had early voting.

But Arizona did for three weeks and a lot of the early voting took place before Santorum had he had his -- -- yes and the other area and you've -- America of accounting I had seen other folks who live there they move there because of the sun belt it.

They went for jobs and good jobs that's that's rich with Romney territory yeah and that's about half of the vote for well over 50% of the vote for the state.

Let me say this however Arizona decides to -- I'm grateful to and in advance because as we try to make our decisions tonight and tell you who wins these elections.

90%.

Of Arizona's Republican vote is in for camps because it's has -- -- -- -- -- -- Stand back stand by coconino.

Now it's it's where -- -- is and I always mispronounce names I don't say but it -- instead.

It's.

The -- it I can't remember right now but it's the one just north west its with its -- -- it.

Yeah out of -- yeah the -- you about the -- by whatever you like an -- No I -- out -- Dallas -- -- -- I've when he ordered Yahoo! buys a product and it should be very delicious.

But -- that -- on those four caddies that's 90%.

Of all of the vote that's right and so coming fast and make sure all I can say is.

Watch closely tonight is I think what you're gonna see.

Is a battle.

Block by block congressional district by congressional district precinct by precinct in Michigan and then Arizona don't -- if you're Arizona because the results are gonna come in for -- is the candidate that bumps up against you talk in the north.

And that's really -- heavy Mormon population I think.

Romney what 11% of the State's population from 2008 voted.

And overwhelmingly they went with Romney.

And that Graham county to the east of Phoenix is where you find available more than only got about thirty events on -- hunger out now I need some months now cream -- have -- -- I'm on half.

Bill -- you're as always a gracious and kind -- to join us and will be trying to provide you the best info possible tonight it's great to see you -- very -- I don't go anywhere because really you know we're gonna have spent the next fourteen hours I know it's gonna get kind of Dicey okay -- we're gonna.

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