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Barone: Santorum's Road to Recovery Leads to Ohio

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    Chris Stirewalt and Michael Barone discuss the Michigan results.

  • Duration 11:14
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That's been around.

For 99 years -- guess what they've lost nine.

Percent of the value -- dollar from 9013.

Pretty bad record -- -- Many of them lets you know little secret the chairman of the -- reserve will be for the banking committee tomorrow night just might show up.

And ask him.

Matt why does Texas congressman Paul firing them up at a rally in Virginia.

He didn't fare too well in the primaries that took place on Tuesday but he's looking ahead -- next week's Super Tuesday where he's the only Republican not named Mitt Romney who will be on the ballot for voters in the Old Dominion so he's looking forward and also.

Does not like the Federal Reserve.

But let's talk about what we can learn from Michigan.

And I am so grateful to my friend and -- onetime colleague Michael Barone.

He is among other things.

-- senior political analyst for the Washington examiner.

He is a senior fellow at the American Enterprise Institute he is the editor for a generation.

The almanac of American politics.

Michael your darn near -- national treasure.

Oh gosh how.

We can't let you know more about those West Virginia mountain counties and I do I do I do but you know Oakland county and you know.

Grand traverse in grand Travers -- and you know.

How the heck this happened in Michigan.

That we ended up with something so close.

As we did in Michigan.

We just give us your first -- the first rodeo in -- on the Michigan vote.

-- What we saw Mitt Romney do in Michigan is what we've seen him do in a number of other states which he's got his strongest support from affluent voters.

If you look at if this was the case for years ago even though four years ago he was considered by pundits to be doing this sort of more conservative of the leading candidates in this time he's considered to be.

By many commentators you know -- squishy moderate choice of the Republican establishment.

In either case he.

He does best in the affluent areas if you take what I'll call the five county Detroit metropolitan area -- a -- -- charities and to the west Livingston washing off.

That's where that's the heart of where he carry the state he got 45% of the vote there four years ago.

My calculation last night was -- -- got 45%.

Again this time.

In his biggest margin was in Oakland County.

Oakland County is northwest of Detroit.

It includes.

A number of affluent suburbs -- Birmingham Bloomfield Hills where Mitt Romney grew up and went to high school where he was three years behind me a private school -- grammar school Bloomfield Hills malicious closure -- Michael -- Yeah and it includes.

They -- includes a number of other affluent suburbs the Woodward avenue Carter this become kind of a gentrification.

Area.

It includes affluent black and Jewish voters in Southfield west Bloomfield but they weren't big participants in the democratic primary.

And the northern town ships.

You've got this kind of ex urban -- people who have moved well away from the central city of Detroit probably don't ever go there.

They've been increasingly Republican in general elections.

They're not the kind of people that shop at Neiman Marcus and Saks Fifth Avenue but they've got above average incomes and pretty truck -- -- attitude towards federal government.

Expansion of we've seen in the last three years.

And Mitt Romney carried Oakland County by a fifty to 29%.

Margin.

Generally speaking in metro Detroit.

Downscale white voters -- and black voters.

Don't participate much in the Republican primary they're Democrats and some of them may have crossed over in this contest because 10% of the votes were cast according -- -- -- -- by self identified Democrats.

But you're looking at a more affluent sub strata -- is when you go out state.

You're getting people drawn into the Republican Party who were from -- economic scales up and down the latter.

So -- armies.

What -- firewall here was was Oakland County is home county.

He carried Oakland County by I believe 30000.

Votes and he carried the state by 31000.

Votes.

And I should point out Internet that I it was I like Mitt Romney was born in Oakland County Michigan.

There in Pontiac a little closer to 75.

Then the refiner precincts of the -- -- school.

Now I took a turn as I often try to do is the poor -- -- around today the hillbilly Barone.

And I tried to calculate the impact of this democratic mischief vote.

In this open primary in Michigan and what I looked at Michael was the percentage of voters.

Who were.

In favor of abortion on demand who favored elective abortion and restricted.

And also voted for Rick Santorum in the exit poll.

And it seemed very unlikely to me that such a person could be.

Conscientiously voting for Rick Santorum who favors.

Absolute restriction on abortion.

And also.

Favor abortion on demand and I calculated it out two.

3.4 percent.

Of santorum's total does that make sense to you.

Nobody in terms of 3.4 percent of the total electorate yeah -- that set that sounds about right Chris.

-- -- some people who are self identified Democrats actually.

Bruce actually support one or more of the Republicans not all Democrats back the president just does not -- -- self identified Republicans.

Oppose him.

But I think -- 3.4 sounds about writing your talk we you know we're talking here about a 4138.

Race so -- got.

Basically accounts for Santorum getting up from 35%.

To 38%.

Now in terms of how this will affect him going forward Ohio.

Functions a lot like Michigan when it comes to its primary it is -- Plaza -- open primary in that just like Michigan you can change your registration at the polling place.

And Democrats are free to come in.

-- -- today told Fox News that he was glad Democrats went and -- form he doesn't care why he wants number he wants to go on and beat Mitt Romney he was being.

-- being defiant about it and about the robo call that he plays to the union households.

Asking them to come vote against Mitt Romney to punish him for opposing.

President Obama's bailout of GM and Chrysler.

Win this race wheels into Ohio which looks increasingly like a must win for same forum.

Wonder how is this gonna play out.

Well I think it'll play out a little differently Chris because Michigan does not -- party registration you never register as a Democrat or Republican worst.

Independent.

You're simply a folder and so you can cross over if you if you consider yourself a Democrat vote in the Republican primary and has absolutely no consequence except to your voters registered for that Republican candidate that you -- for.

In Ohio was I understand that you've got to change your party registration which is a little more -- barrier.

And I think we'll reduce the number of people who crossover.

In -- -- GPS way.

To try to.

Help what they consider to be the weaker Republican candidates so.

If we get 10% self identified.

Democrats in the Michigan Republican primary I'd expected to be 5% or less in the Ohio.

Republican primary next Tuesday.

I do think that you know Mitt Romney's.

Outrage -- I think was probably feigned outrage he's calling on them.

To participate in the primary.

Did strike a chord with some Republican voters that exit poll shows that people that made up their minds at the very last minute gave Mitt Romney is significant margin and he was over the careful to be on the airwaves on TV the primary morning.

Decrying the Santorum and inviting Democrats to participate in the Republican primary so.

I think that we'll hear Mitt Romney sounding that theme.

Rick Santorum made a statement earlier in the caucus.

-- -- and primary process where he said it was terrible day every -- Democrats voting in the Republican primary.

Obviously he changed his mind that's a process argument you know it.

I'm for -- -- in one of my rules of life is that all process arguments are insincere.

Including this one.

What Michael Michael Brown -- -- throw a couple questions that you that the Internet has for you.

-- Heather snow once noble -- get a boost on Super Tuesday from last night's winds and if so where.

I think that he gets a boost out of Ohio when I think you could hurt his theme on election night.

Rick Santorum give a very good speech I thought in many ways but it was defensive you know I've had strong professional women in my life my I would like -- like my daughter mom and my daughter used to be.

He's recoil in their firms think kind of negative comments he's gotten from conservative women columnist -- bloggers people like -- -- and Kathleen Parker and Jennifer Rubin.

-- -- on the defensive whereas Romney came out there and talked about the economic record about Barack Obama's policies hurting the country and how that he could turn the economy around.

That's aimed directly at Ohio and he's launch something this morning any manufacturers'.

Coalition for Romney or something like.

That he's trying to.

Not give Rick Santorum a monopoly of the idea that hey I'm gonna do something special for manufacturing.

In Ohio which is always -- -- heavy manufacturing -- -- and last last question from can you read this.

Says -- -- if he thinks Hillary will be on the ticket with Obama.

Know how I don't.

I think I should be on the ticket with Obama.

You know we always hear this changing vice president's.

Theme.

In in fact.

That hasn't we haven't had a change in the vice presidents since the 1940.

-- -- well 44 election when Henry Wallace was dumped by a relatively conservative moderate Democrats with the acquiescence of Franklin Roosevelt -- I was not quite -- life at the time of September at least not born yet.

I was I was alive -- the wound -- At the time that convention was held so my first -- that we're still having delegates but you're still examining -- observation was limited kiosk.

Michael Brown that is exactly why several times last night on the decision to ask we were cause to say allowed.

I wish Barone was here it's because you have all of that you are you are marvelous and that you -- marvelous to join us today have a great -- in Washington.

Okay thank you -- to be with you always Chris.

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