Worries mount high gas prices will derail recovery
Will pain at the pump fuel new recession?
- Duration 8:25
- Date Mar 3, 2012
Will pain at the pump fuel new recession?
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Ten cent jump in one week nearly thirty -- month.
Now they are really worried lawmakers scrambling right now to find a way to bring gas prices down.
Because if someone here is why this recovery is about to slam on the brakes hi everyone I'm Brenda -- this has Bulls and Bears let's get right to it.
The Bulls and Bears this week Gary B Smith Tobin Smith.
Jonas Max Ferris along with Matt McCall and Julian Epstein welcome to everybody so -- will soaring pump prices take the fuel out of the recovery.
Absolutely not only thing to fuel a recovery is a good chances -- pushes back and a double dip recession.
I -- bringing that we're back into you know we're talking -- -- But if you think about this if -- actually gets about five dollars per gallon national average which is a good chance they could have what's going on Middle East right now.
We could see you know not only the recovery and but -- -- is not driving tour from work there I don't drive a car but this guy gas price is gonna hurt me because.
Every good that I buy is somehow transported from manufactured to retailer.
What happens then is and that has now passed on to me so when I go to the store to buy something -- it can be higher than it was just a few months ago.
Then the bigger thing Brenda is confidence I don't care my driver I walk by a big screen -- -- -- -- five dollars then I'm I'm not buying anything.
Well -- the actually you're not so sure about that because basically everybody continues to -- and even if they're spending on -- that does fuel basically -- -- the economy doesn't.
Precisely Brenda -- two points I guess one that credit does Suisse did a study it's that.
If gas went up another fifty cents a takes about fifty billion.
The economy that's about a half percent so it's not.
That substantial maybe -- a slowing economy it's a little bit more than we like but I kind of disagree without -- wanna respect as you point out Brenda the fifty.
Billion goes back into the economy people pay higher gas prices or Mac's case may be -- The money and puts -- the bank airport the bank gets more money the money doesn't just stop blowing it goes somewhere everyone just doesn't.
Sit on the money even an -- like I -- even if they can sit on their money it goes somewhere so we have more or less.
Kind of a closed economy where one party is hurt but other parts of the -- -- I closed the money.
Disease but let let me ask the question though Julian doesn't hurt some Americans -- disproportionately.
And and they then have to go to the federal government for more help.
Well there's no question how as a regressive a -- and I think it has a dampening effect on the economic recovery I think we're probably looking.
At 2% economic growth it could as I think Gary says maybe shave a half or quarter percentage -- I think the data doesn't support -- argument which is that it could lead -- into a double dip.
Recession I think it's important for your viewers to understand that for demand for oil is as low as it's been since 1997.
But prices are skyrocketing.
And the data that is overwhelmingly showing that speculators.
The manipulation of the markets has a big role if not the primary role and the reason for these.
RX well well if it is it speculators -- is -- some supply disruption that having.
When I get I think if you look at it the date yet if speculators were you know behind this move then why is it that natural gas is that at the lowest price it's been that again in ten years and there's.
Yeah because of the economy is taking these factors in and saying two things.
What is disproportionately admits the economy in different states in Mississippi for instance gas prices are 11% of of the families take -- -- it's gonna get Mississippi harder in other parts of the country it's a lower number but overall that doesn't make -- good point if it's we look at it just as your gas tank.
But you have to look at it for extra prices from FedEx from -- and movie theater from that you know the guy that you get on an airline web all those prices are gonna pass through that's gonna take probably -- point offer this to be -- Janice how this does hit the economy if it doesn't matter whether it's demand driven or supply drum that doesn't rise and Benoit every economy using more gas than 1987 except maybe North -- side -- this is flagrantly -- America is not growing as much consumption -- these two in the past but other countries like China -- so.
As far as the economy there's two kinds of high gas prices there's a gas price as a result of people just drive and more by more whether it's another country here and there is what I call a service interruption that is a storm and OPEC situation a war -- -- -- That kind of a high energy prices can hurt the economy cause a recession but what is the symptom -- growing economy.
If you of the price and not because you're buying more but that's not going to cause a recession because destroy our economy is why -- happen in the first place right now we're not seeing his service and eruptions I would get too worried about it.
But if people were the price goes up if we have problems that are included the five dollar guess -- I could cause a recession but I want more about it for because of demand.
Well Matt how serious is this -- how how much do you think that how higher prices gonna go and and how is this gonna hit the economy I'd.
It sort economy.
It's hazardous to find my biggest concern going forward and you know that just makes makes a good point if it goes up to maybe that's three -- -- 54 dollars it's not gonna end at the growth -- -- having right now GDP United States.
However we get -- five dollars.
I don't think it's as much about filling your tank you were not spend that much more per month out of your paycheck but I think it's more psychological what's gonna happen is when the headline -- five dollars per gallon for gas.
You gonna stop spinning wheel stop -- is consumer is less the -- for a little service is that as unemployment I think it just morbid trickle down effect of the fact of being five again.
-- this addressed Jerry's point -- if you behave differently irrationally so and don't spend money because of it then you could cause a problem.
But like Jerry's didn't spend money somewhere else who cares and it would you're wrong -- -- incident -- Sony TV more money goes abroad and if you buy gas that is -- -- more -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- I free I think it is -- -- you guys and got that -- let me get Gary in here Gary.
Well hi -- I wanna go back for I'm not appointed -- made and it goes back to.
What the data shows there really is no correlation.
Because sometimes gas prices rise because the economy is improving as a matter practice -- Relation between gas prices.
And and and and GDP otherwise -- would have seen every time we went from three dollars to four dollars and for our report are cryptic set the economy can't you know -- -- to -- -- -- -- that hasn't been the case this last recession sir.
That's -- -- cause even though we saw along the way gas prices go up people just scaled back and did other things they telecommute they spent money on the Internet.
As -- -- pointed out earlier concept.
Well basically my -- I put up a look at the irony here is just -- -- point -- -- were on the up on our race.
To become the largest energy producer in -- world.
It's terribly ironic that we have other issues it hitting us in the in our economy we're just don't have enough flexibility -- the economy yet to be able to get there however if we -- another million jobs drilling oil wells across the United States you know what -- -- -- we have enough flexible.
I gotta get -- and I -- my Gillian.
Well I think you know we -- I think the point is right Toby sport is right we are producing more oil now than we have since the year 2003 we've got more.
Rigs in operation than anywhere else in the world the Obama administration just to get my partisan point in there -- issued a 400.
New permits for drilling so I think that's I think there's there's no question are also just back to the point here -- -- -- just isn't.
There isn't there isn't any data that shows that as you go up from three to four to five.
That there is a major drop -- -- consumer spending there is a marginal but not a major they're just isn't the data to support Matt's point.
And I think at the end of the day look this is a three legged stool we've got to do more about production.
We've got to do more about energy efficiency and we've got to do more about alternative fuel I -- did anyone who says you can't do any loose ones that you can't do.
But it is as you go into one of those three or two of those three is lying to -- three of those but I I gotta let Matt respond to that now.
-- -- was -- that you know the day is about his data I would love to see the state of -- talking about because you ask any American out there what they're gonna do BC five dollar per gallon gasoline and it's not gonna be spent just a little less but doesn't know.
No way baby -- just.
Saw that data back Matt went for a dollar -- I don't get a -- you got it.
She's good its economy is good that's why prices are going up more demand yes it's okay we're having a -- is going to 2% of we're lucky that's not a good economy.
-- -- Last -- well I'll make one other partisan point if he will yes.
-- network drilling now more than ever and because and most of that drilling up -- -- -- -- has become from drills on private property.
Not publicly issued permits are right that -- last -- thanks --