Super Tuesday Big Board
Chris Stirewalt uses the big board to break down all ten states participating in Super Tuesday
- Duration 16:08
- Date Mar 6, 2012
Chris Stirewalt uses the big board to break down all ten states participating in Super Tuesday
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That is the number of delegates up for grabs today.
Super Tuesday in ten contests from coast to coast.
It's twice the number of delegates that have been awarded so far in the Republican nominating process it is in fact a very big deal.
This is power play welcome back we have snuck in again to use the big board.
Again don't help hammer but were making it happen for you because.
In an election of this scope with so many states voting and so much going on we want you to know how to make it happen so let's take a look at what's going on.
Here for Super Tuesday.
Now there are ten states vote and know that if you live in any of the ten states what they're doing is very important to you but we can pretty easily break this into two categories.
You have several states that are having caucuses you have several states that.
Probably aren't gonna affect the delegate apportionment too much.
That would include.
Former Massachusetts governor Romney's expected very well here certainly some delegates might be available.
Ron Paul in both or one or the other of those states certainly possible Virginia.
As a primary but neither Virginia resident Newt Gingrich nor Virginia resident Rick Santorum qualified for the ballot in this state so that's ahead on head.
Ron Paul vs.
And get another chance where Ron Paul might coach a couple of delegates there in a state that Romney is otherwise expected to win in the late.
They're having caucuses.
Out west they're having caucus in North Dakota -- having -- caucus in Idaho and they're having a caucus in Alaska.
Those states are really elections in disguise these are very serious caucuses where votes count and buying delegates to the national convention.
So these are more significant in that way the contest in places like Iowa and Minnesota where the contests.
Are more beauty pageants at the beginning.
A process of choosing delegates so these matter a great deal certainly in Idaho certainly in Alaska Ron Paul.
May get some delegates at the place where he may -- well.
Is Rick Santorum has focused hard.
On North Dakota.
They're natural gas and oil industry he's even made it all the way out way out to the western frontier of North Dakota so you know he's serious about it.
And all of those -- are important.
We will be watching all of them to give you the latest possible result in the delegate count.
In all of those places but let's talk about where the delegates more and the largest possible number.
Out of these ten states having primaries three caucuses.
The biggest prize is.
George okay so Georgia.
Is obviously the state that Newt Gingrich represented in congress.
For twenty years 701999.
Delegates 31 of those are.
Proportionally awarded based on the vote total in the whole state 42 were based on the congressional districts three per congressional district from across the state.
Now the secret.
Four winning Georgia is not surprisingly.
This area these -- in the suburbs right up here because the city had the the air Georgia has sprawled.
Remarkably in recent years.
It's been a tough economic period for Georgia but not as bad as the rest of the state.
In the area really that has been the least affected has been up here in the North Atlanta suburbs and I want to point you particularly to Cherokee county.
Which right up here which is in the -- -- of Atlanta.
Cherokee county is the kind of place you have Newt Gingrich's old congressional district -- -- here.
As you've had congressional district -- -- this north Georgia region.
The delegate count for the Republican presidential nomination has -- and up and -- in this area.
So let's think about it this way.
When we look.
At Georgia as a whole.
This quadrant of the state that Newt Gingrich represented us so much more important that's why he thinks and probably rightly so it -- -- -- Gingrich -- paying so much in his home state.
Because if he runs up the -- in Georgia.
And gets enough -- from congressional district congressional district he could get.
More delegates out of Georgia that are available on the whole in Ohio or come very close to doing that the places to look.
Other than Cherokee county.
Down here in Chatham -- That's.
Mitt Romney will do well here he will do well I suspect.
In the very wealthy precincts.
That'd be here in the -- counting.
And of course next door Fulton County basically the north and that these swanky suburbs of Atlanta.
Romney will do well there that's his best bet to -- and delegates all right so now.
Let us talk about.
And and here's how did the -- I think this is important for you to -- you can see that essentially Huckabee.
Roads through this area picked up these key -- -- in precincts.
-- Gingrich can take those precincts and add it to the metro Atlanta area he will in fact have a very good day.
Now the second largest delegate prize on Super Tuesday is Ohio.
Now folks in Ohio are no stranger to consequential elections but they're used to them happening.
-- on the democratic side primaries -- in the general usually by the time the Republican process gets Ohio it's more of a coronation than it is a fight.
But this time even though -- second in the delegate count it is the most important battle when it comes to -- because it equally matches the strengths.
Of two Republicans the front runners Mitt Romney.
And Rick Santorum.
So here's now you win Ohio if your Mitt Romney and it's pretty straightforward.
You do well in Cuyahoga County in Cleveland right here and in the adjacent suburban counties especially on the east side.
You run up the vote there with a moderate suburban voters.
Around Cleveland these are people who are sort of your chamber of commerce kind of Republicans they should like Romney's pitch he should do very well here.
You do well down in Cincinnati which is sort of the Republican bread basket this part of the state.
Is in many ways the home of the national Republican establishment five Republican presidents -- From this metro area around Cincinnati.
Hats off to you William Howard Taft.
So these larger sit these large city -- -- should be very important for Romney but only in the close in suburbs.
The key for the Romney victory as it was for John McCain in 2008.
Be right here.
That's Franklin County Franklin County has.
It has about four county metro area right here is the largest pool of Republican votes in the whole state.
And that includes licking county over here but this is the bread basket and it's how John McCain won in 2008.
It's how Mitt Romney hopes to win is by running up the -- here it's going to be very tough territory for central to break and Columbus is quite a prosperous town these days lot of corporate headquarters if there's any place where Mitt Romney's pitch should be heard it's there.
What that means is that Santorum has to hit them where Romney is and he's got weapons -- -- it's going to be hard for rob.
Now where -- where I'm going to be looking for Rick Santorum.
Is over here in the eastern part of the state not only does it border his old district which was right over here in Pennsylvania.
But it and -- this in the -- hole that he represented but it is that demographic.
Twin to the parts of Pennsylvania Rick Santorum formally represented.
Lot of Catholic voters lot of socially conservative Democrats.
A lot of Italian Americans a lot of people who if anywhere in the country people want to hear Rick Santorum.
This is the kind of place there -- he wants to be in portage county.
He wants to be in trumbull county.
That's -- and he especially wants to be in Mahoney camp that's Youngstown.
Mitt Romney made a raid -- -- on Monday and showed up in Youngstown Youngstown shouldn't be.
Mitt Romney territory but he's feeling confident trying to -- -- -- Away from -- -- here but it santorum's gonna do it and keep.
In the popular vote at least that's how he's gonna do it don't we remember and we should point out one of the ironies for Santorum -- This congressional district is one of the ones one of three.
Where he can't win and he delegates today when the fifteen statewide large but he can't win the three delegates that come from winning that congressional district and it's one of the ones who do the best.
There are other congressional district.
Total of eighteen.
Delegates that he may not be qualified -- yen and that may be part of how people are thinking.
But I want to tell you it and by the way I should also point out this southern sloth.
Down here Jackson County in places like that if Newt Gingrich is gonna get a delegate it's gonna be in this congressional district which comes along the river.
And down here -- not qualified in that congressional district that could be where Gingrich does it.
But let me tell you where this election is gonna be won and lost in Ohio.
And I can I can tell you right now.
It's in the north suburbs.
Cincinnati stretching up.
To Dayton this is basically where he's got to do it because what happens and think about this while Cincinnati's immediate suburbs are going to be good -- country.
As the road stretches -- as interstate 75 stretches out and you get up here towards Dayton it's a lot more blue collar lot of factory towns there's.
You know car plants there's potential Santorum voters if he can outperform in the Cincinnati excerpts and wind up and Dayton.
He's got a real shot at pulling off a win in Ohio.
So that's the key to victory and now.
The third largest delegate prize on Super Tuesday as the volunteer state.
Tennessee now this is banned in recent election cycles a heavily Republican state.
But it's three different kinds of Republican states in one.
And that can make the calculus of trying to win these 58 delegates.
A little more difficult for these candidates.
And now let's remember 28 are proportional based on the statewide vote 27 are done three apiece by congressional district.
It's an open primary.
Democrats may participate independents may participate Mike Huckabee won it by two in 2008.
But it was a pretty close delegate split.
Basically three states -- here's how you think about it you've got the apple -- and east and this is when you when you look at the state essentially it's like this you have.
The smoky mountains in the Cumberland mountains come here in a valley you've got starting down here Chattanooga on the Tennessee River up here you've got Knox County Knoxville Knox County is the most important Republican county in the state -- part of the state has been.
Republican since Lincoln times.
This is the hillbilly firewall all the way this is a very serious.
Prize for any Republican who gets it Gingrich may do well down here the bordering on the northwest corner of his stinky formerly represented.
A Romney's hoping to do well in Knoxville where voters tend to be.
Conservative but -- -- right.
Folks like governor bill Haslem who's the former mayor of Knoxville who's now the governor of the state yes they're conservative Republicans but this is a place that depends on.
The national nuclear laboratory at Oak Ridge University of Tennessee and Tennessee Valley Authority so they don't like government but not all the way.
Now the other important part of the state on the other side of the Cumberland mountains here the Cumberland basin is national now Nashville suburbs when you get down to it.
Are basically like this.
Romney this is Romney country down here you have Nashville and again just as we saw -- -- -- and we've seen in other states.
Around big cities in the close in suburbs that's where Mitt Romney's going to be that's the closer you -- city.
The more likely you are to be moderate fortunately for -- there's big concentrations of votes in this place.
Best place for -- I suspect.
Yes he'll do well in -- proper but down here in Williamson county -- one of the wealthiest counties in the state he'll do well Rick santorum's best bet to sneak in on Romney take a little something -- is going to be out to the east and that's.
That's rather for counting.
And that on the far side -- -- the Murphy's -- so that's more blue collar that's more experiment while Romney did very well in this part of the state and you can just look at the kind of numbers that he was put not here.
Doing very well in that part of the state and nine point -- Santorum might be able to make him over here and cut down.
But here's the key and here's the absolute -- who's gonna win.
In Tennessee today and that's out here in the flats on the Mississippi delta headed out to Memphis.
Memphis is in Shelby county that's the most populous county in the state it is overwhelmingly.
Democrat but you know what when you put a million people together some of them are bound to be Republican.
And out of those you're gonna get.
50000 may be more votes just in Shelby county in -- gonna see as Mike Huckabee did.
That these folks are very socially conservative Huckabee had a real advantage -- govern the state over Pine Bluff is just across the river.
West Memphis is just across the river they knew him they shared -- media market they'd seen Arkansas news.
But the real reason he won -- think about that.
Do you think -- -- Johnny Cash sang gospel just because they like the -- know these are socially conservative.
Baptist buckle of the Bible -- What Rick Santorum needs to do here in this heavily democratic part of the state is win the Republicans who were there and win them on a socially conservative argument.
If he does that he can offset Romney's ranks here and -- traditionally Republican areas like Knoxville in the suburbs around Nashville and pull off a win.
That is if Gingrich doesn't you know -- -- votes here so that's the key to -- -- this volunteer state attempts.
Now the fourth largest delegate prize on Super Tuesday is Oklahoma.
Oklahoma that's forty delegates it's a close contest.
And it is.
Only Republicans and this is a wide open race now here's a look at how the state -- in 2008.
Mike Huckabee and John McCain and it's.
Totally accurate because essentially what you have here is -- divide and you have this part of the state that looks more up towards Missouri.
-- here to Arkansas and then you -- Oklahoma City side which is very much focused on the Texas side of things.
They share in -- that oil and energy are there are they're like look that's how they do it natural gas and oil are -- but they're two very different areas.
And the key if you think about it for these forty delegates.
Going to be Oklahoma City which is inconveniently enough Oklahoma county.
And there's two -- down here this is down towards Norman where the state university has -- you've got some suburbs out here this recount -- wedge right here.
If you are Mitt Romney which you wanna -- was run up the -- here.
Because you're gonna have trouble out here in this part of the state.
-- a more blue collar version it is famous for its -- talks but it's also famous for Oral Roberts University.
These folks are very serious about their christianity they're very serious about all of that stuff not to say that people in the rest of the state are.
But it is a big part of the brain big part of the existence for people in this corner of the state and Tulsa.
Cast a wide shadow doesn't have as many people in its individual county.
As Oklahoma county guys but it really covers up this whole part of the state and -- Rick Santorum can do well there he can brought to as pretty close to a ties -- can get.
To Mitt Romney for Romney the keys going to be really running up this work here among more moderate -- things where people have gotten pretty rich lately -- companies like Chesapeake.
And other energy providers that are exported this new net new ways to get natural gas.
And you call it fracking down there they call -- money.
And that's a look at how the big four -- gonna vote today Super Tuesday.
Is the Republican race wrapping up or is it just getting started will be able to tell you so you gotta stay tuned got to stay on foxnews.com.
We're going to be streaming.
You gotta watch Fox News we're gonna have all the latest result.
I'll be on the decision to -- we're going to be working very hard to bring you that.
The most accurate the fastest calls to tell you who's ahead who's behind.
In all ten contests.
And even as Alaska is wrapping things out.
After midnight will be there for you so keep it on fox and state.