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Welcome back to campaign insiders my colleagues and friends Pat Caddell and Donald Leo -- where you get inside talk -- on the campaign.
No spin just the truth about what's going on talk -- insights you get from political professionals that is available nowhere else.
We've been talking about the Republican primaries but we've not been talking.
Yet about the general election which ultimately is gonna course come in November let's put up.
The real clear politics averages for Romney and -- Obama and Santorum and Obama and I think.
What you see it's it's a little tough for us to see here but I think there's a about a three or four point Obama lead.
Romney and Santorum a little bigger over -- and -- want to have points one and a half over.
Overrun -- Romney -- three -- four over Santorum.
My question John.
Is what's going on in this race.
I think it's that things are going on the same time we talked a minute ago about how weak Romney -- which we all agree.
But Obama is there's a week -- -- -- we -- -- the economy.
Number one that gas prices as part of the economy.
He's been a week really since the health care debacle he really frittered away.
-- special status.
After his honeymoon in this election.
He gave it all -- he's never really gotten it back even neo solid bin Laden take down -- a momentary blip.
He's a very weakened incumbent we've had other incumbents lose they always got challenge in their own party.
And got weakened this guy's got his party pretty much behind them any still -- but how do you see the fall election now who's ahead well.
At this point this election has -- definition.
We have we've talked about the -- almost -- probably but.
You know given the mood of the country in new York and when I called ordinary election and have them under ordinary in out of the box country.
-- -- -- -- The president wants to make about the Republicans Republicans assume it'll be about the president a referendum.
I am telling you there is no large definition of this campaign it is fluid.
Neither saw it get so close the neither side gets much of an advantage Obama starting game one about two weeks ago.
Republicans were killing themselves -- he is still being unchallenged but as soon as he runs up to something whether it's gas prices.
Or you've -- Afghanistan.
He's the president he takes the blame the biggest problem president has and he is we.
-- that he didn't do what he said he was gonna do his argument essentially is.
A -- could be worse.
Pat -- got to ask you are gonna press time -- and come to you John.
You've been in this situation -- conflict with Iran high gas -- prices high unemployment.
What does Obama do what should he do and what does the country want with the country wants -- he needs in this is a problem with his -- -- country wants is as president to.
Stand up and say.
You know what I you do what I set I was gonna do and -- -- here's what.
Something is -- and here is a pivot to a larger vision that still could implement what I have work.
But the president is operating this in short order cook.
He's giving people as I keep saying.
Yea you today won't attack gas company's old gas -- salt rubbed in this program all you want to be supporting Israel with the next available support them so much.
We want cheeseburger in prize from eBay and you know -- it is and that's probably be conventional wisdom of the chattering class now is that Obama.
The is almost involved companies -- win is that right.
Not hollow course not I mean I -- -- no one has a clue what's gonna happen in the next six months.
Obama you tell us what's gonna -- I don't know because I think I've felt this and -- set it to you guys off the air.
This is an extraordinary time it's a weird feeling we.
Were old enough sadly to remember what it felt like in 1968.
When the country was.
-- settled over Vietnam we had two unbelievable assassinations of doctor Martin Luther king and Robert Kennedy.
And of politics is in turmoil.
We're in -- turmoil in this country today.
And the idea that it's going to be steady and just a stab -- -- Romney establishment Obama from here to November makes -- -- -- some event is.
And -- that's the problem this election is at the mercy of events all -- -- sort of so much of this from particulate.
-- situation we haven't talked about we have a really crisis that for driving up gas the administration's policy has flat out failed.
-- -- -- -- -- through most threatening to take action and Obama is ahead pat -- that he's barely ahead he's ahead because he is unchallenged.
The narrative he gets to go out there and make his case he's out there now saying I'm not responsibly ghastly people don't buy that.
The Republicans to think that -- issue and I keep saying -- there an ability to take his policies.
On Green energy vs more development.
Do these the the scandal over an unbelievable crony capitalism going on this stuff.
And also his billiard bring a -- to put pressure on them has created this situation but they're not able to make that Casey -- -- gas prices -- -- -- for -- If you use it people say it's mindless.
Part of the problem is I don't think he can raise the reason the race is so little.
As I don't think a lot of voters feel particularly emotionally attached to -- and a mobile -- feel very emotion attached to their country being in danger.
You know I I think you making an important point -- When we get conflicting polls.
In this kind of situation.
I usually say.
It'll do all right there's anger at the republicans' anger at the democrats' anger Romney anger at Obama so.
What whether he's three points ahead or three points behind is less important than this is a fluid election with the dissatisfied.
Electorate that is looking for alternatives that don't now exist and on -- system you have the president.
Really depending on.
Things he can't control what what if Europe we've talked that the Europe economy.
Israel hitting Iran oil prices -- 200 a barrel this thing would kill the economic recovery right unemployment goes back or not easily.
Things that kill you look you can have a campaign in 1980 I happened that week.
The President Carter reelection campaign and we give them the resources Obama yet plus we have we have to fight in real -- -- -- -- Both in terms of -- campaign.
Tried to move things I think we were very very good.
Promise we couldn't control events I couldn't control -- gas prices were and I couldn't control the economy or inflation and a lot of it is the hostage situation.
And -- -- those events and don't matter in a lot more and also will be here's the difference this year.
This country been so much angrier.
What is missing is begging here is a compelling.
Single vision for uniting and moving the country -- that.
Best if that which exists about we have we have another -- So we'll ask is if someone could take this country and our store is it believable the thing let's make the data may fifteenth Romney has this thing -- So he sits down whether staff could they do a vision you plant -- -- Mitt Romney.
Would it work could he then come out on June 15.
And be a general election candidate -- and he's carrying that it -- very very difficult play and I'm gonna cut this off and ask you John.
What is your prediction.
For the week was gonna make a prediction were to talk about this guy Sheldon Adelson saw wanna change my -- -- that you're you're and I say that.
We haven't even gotten into it but there has to -- -- a scandal out of these super pacs.
In the future OK because there's all this money we try to get all -- money out of politics after Watergate.
And now we have unbelievable money -- regulated and that smells eventually of a political scam -- Alabama in the Mississippi are just being -- -- there.
Have a hard time -- Mitt Romney under any circumstances and where one of those but if he does this is really awful it is chasing grip and my.
-- my prediction pat.
Is regardless of who wins what it's gonna go on everybody's -- Staying and whether the campaign committee keeps Gingrich -- -- -- and keeps him -- I think Gingrich Santorum and Romney fight on after Alabama Mississippi come what may.
Let me transition now to some more comments that we've got.
The first one is from -- he says.
Kidd -- is right but the but the fact of the matter is that Romney keeps winning.
Whether we'd like it or not he's kind of like that Tim Tebow politics.
But on -- unwelcome pat -- reaction.
Wouldn't know about what to compare -- that Tim Tebow would.
And for -- tell TiVo's I had to get traded from the Broncos.
Let me answer questions.
Please visit the portable to -- that thing that needs relief.
Is it Romney is I -- long since January.
Question is he going to be like Nixon 68 steady -- just moving along so far he's been more than that he has not been dramatic.
It's sad that he's not been more dramatic.
But that's what's happening but he's he is going to look he has a massive organizational -- financial advantage over feel the people.
This once we described the democratic field in 1990 -- appeal the pygmies.
There's not able.
I -- get to you giving your comment about super pacs Bobby Hawkins writes when a president is elected who do you think they work for.
You the voter.
With a person who put up the money.
To get them elected job while I mean in the past the money was spread out over hundreds of thousands of people if we get this thing going where one guy can write out a hundred million bucks.
They're gonna take that phone call from that guy every time.
Let me just say this this is Mike is a Democrat my -- -- of -- back.
Difficult to breaking the -- when you realize how much money -- would keep public financing.
He killed presidential public financing he opened the doors this disaster he did it because in Chicago what they say -- what -- -- -- two different things.
And the president as disingenuous.
As all get up about reform.
But I want to tell you something else about who runs a country.
You if you think that these people we -- -- total strangers or people you barely middle give you million dollars and -- nothing in return in your bigger fool than that.
-- thought was possible for mr.
Cadel we have a final question for the whole -- All start with the prerogative of the -- that's what we have about 45 seconds and I'll be brief.
When it comes to the Republican primary.
Why do you guys reference to New York Times I think my answer is.
Because there's sometimes useful information.
But -- and I suspect the rest of us take it with a grain of salt John I think you got to take all the polls can't just choose anyone but they generally medal newspaper.
All -- they're completely anti Republican -- -- moments sometimes they have a lot of people -- -- you might pick up of and in fact we hear of their support otherwise it's probably did our of the democratic national committee for God's -- it's almost through what that let me thank you for joining us on campaign.
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