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Don't -- getting confused Italy's seals clean cut lieutenant colonel Tony Schaeffer of the center for advanced defense studies.
Or third of operation dot com joins us from our DC bureau good to see you as always count because he's got a good -- -- -- thank you the first bull didn't.
Can you you know -- than most the mindset of soldiers.
In very very tense and difficult circumstances.
Right explain to us if it is even possible to.
How -- this kind of thing it might happen how a soldier might just flip like this.
-- the soldiers I predicted I was on BBC last time I predict this without knowing at the soldier was probably gonna -- on three or four tourist turns out to be true.
And this is the bottom line there's three things that are impacting on the soldiers Jonathan at the individual level the gut level.
That you're seeing these guys and three and four tourist which is putting huge stress on them as individuals and their families this guy was clearly -- -- category secondly.
You've got the the Afghan people who are now clearly not on your side to do the Koran burning wasn't indicator of that.
And now you have a whole population looking at you with the -- fly this guy was assigned to working with the villagers trying to create trust -- so clearly.
That was making his mission almost mission possible.
Because of the the juxtaposition of of what he's been told do vs what the reality is so he sees that every day.
Third and most importantly we saw this at during the Koran burning.
Unfortunate and as we had colleague Ron sympathizers.
Infiltrators whatever you wanna call -- actually working within the ranks of the the Karzai government and and frankly there are more there we all know it.
We just don't know when they're gonna pop so this this is put up Paul.
On everything these soldiers do and and Jonathan -- part of this is a political issue we have asked these kids to do something which clearly.
We we made the job difficult to Begin with I actually said here on fox three years ago with John stock -- -- just got we have to go big or go home.
Going big was 500000 people troops for ten years tenure commitment we chose not to do that and now is as as cart has pointed out we're talking -- out earlier.
So now we we put even more pressure.
On these kids to produce results to actually create a substantial real Afghan army.
With individuals the Afghan civilians who can't read or write but to take their shoes off to get to twenty to count -- -- And we're asking these kids do the impossible you know so we've got to take a very strong step back Jonathan a look at how we're putting such immense pressure on these kids.
To produce and circumstance which frankly is is nearly impossible to even think straight on a daily basis.
So strategically colonel -- happens now it's -- to see.
Being -- -- between the US and ends and the Afghan forces and that.
Is not is it not is the cornerstone of the strategy so what happens -- little cortisone crumbles.
Clearly -- McCarron and the predecessor to General McChrystal relieved over the very fact that he that the Afghan people lost confidence in his ability.
To conduct to protect them by the fact he was killing civilians this has gotten we're back at square one again now four years later.
So we have to consider as a prime issue with that said we have been -- the Afghan people hobson's choice to be honest here we talked about this you and I.
We're talking we're telling -- -- the Afghan people dislike between it and brutal corrupt government in the form of the Karzai administration are brutal corrupt.
Religious extremist organization the form -- the -- -- And this is the point I'd like to make clear the audience the Afghan people aren't on -- their self -- have a tradition of being tribes.
So when you force them into this position of making -- -- -- things and they don't like you the choice we become the issue so that's what we're seeing here so we -- -- step out of that.
We do we were not gonna make for better -- for worse I'll say this very clearly we're not gonna make the Afghan people.
Into a Jeffersonian democracy just not gonna happen.
So we need to do instead is go back to how we were actually winning an -- 010203.
Which is focusing on terrorists and going after them directly and making it very clear to the Afghan people look we don't care how you live your life.
But the moment you work with al-Qaeda the moment you become a safe and again we're gonna come back in and we're gonna -- we're gonna kick your behind.
And it's got to be clear it's gotta be decisive and frankly we gotta make it so that they understand that's that's going to be the ultimate penalty.
For for dealing with -- Qaeda but so working to win.
The Afghan sixth security forces is not going to look is not a strategy that is workable.
There there's a classified memo out from ambassador Crocker to President Obama saying basically as long as a safe havens exist in Pakistan.
There's no way we can ever get the Afghan army up and running to the point -- -- -- and they can be.
Self sufficient so that's the bottom line -- and I know that people don't wanna talk about that.
But this is what worries me no -- we can't it's not gonna happen based on everything we've done and because this is that -- election -- of the president's making it very clear.
He's pulling out more quickly so again it's the worst possible consequence worst possible telegraphing a what we're doing.
And ultimately know we we are putting these kids are best and brightest into a position where they cannot hope to win.
You're gonna see more this spring.
These these kids are doing the best to -- but isn't this nearly impossible for them to be successful and environment they're in right now.
-- is their argument as some Republicans even have made.
To get -- now just say that's say it it's not working we've done everything we can we -- change anything else let's just go.
Well I I prefer to look at it as a path to victory might might but my last chapter in my book actually talks about this in detail look.
I'm not saying cut and -- I'm saying we need to get back on on task and thought how we need to address the issues this is a very stable region Jonathan Iranians.
Have influence in Afghanistan the Indians the pacs it's -- it's it's a it's a free -- But we cannot be the ones being targeted -- -- free for all.
So we did get back and look at what the real issue isn't really she was the pakistanis and their support some elements of the ISI supporting radical Islamist.
Bin Laden I do believe was protected by the ISI.
The pakistanis have make -- -- weapons they are player in the nuclear battle space of that region we have to accept that so let's focus on what could really hurt -- -- go -- and could really hurt us.
-- bond launching attacks -- probably not gonna happen so when you get up I'm back on task and how to really identify what is it our.
National best interest not trying to make a Jeffersonian democracy out of tribes who never had the tradition.
And one of our viewers writing in -- -- has a question for you and I guess this that the bill.
The question -- -- should we use our engineers to update the infrastructure roads hospitals mosques schools etc.
And Afghanistan could that -- -- numbers to have them as a coalition member -- maybe join us against against Iran I can already see that happening.
But what about the idea that we should be helping them.
A multi nation yeah and clearly that's not something you think is gonna make a difference.
Kabul when I was there -- 03 didn't have a power grid didn't have a working -- out does.
We have done all that Jonathan the question becomes what kind of governance.
Again we're we're helping create a circumstance where we're trying to and essentially tell the Afghan people -- economic choice here.
Instead of letting them determine what they wanna do in the future again the cars a -- be very very clear ambassador Crocker is even said the at the Karzai government.
Is substantially a second insurgency think about that the allies actually working with has been said in congressional record as a second insurgency.
So we've got accepted that that let the water rise to the -- level it needs to.
And determine what's best for our kids for our future -- -- again all roads lead to Pakistan at this point in time.
Not to say we have we can't look at Afghanistan could be either some -- we have to look what the real real threats -- Do you see the possibility that if things continue down the top there -- with this.
Deepening distrust between -- the US soldiers NATO soldiers in general and the and the Afghans.
We end up beating -- kind of ignominious retreat that the Russians that.
Well on that path of it again and this is a political year that that administration's announced its intent to pull out more quickly.
That has for -- -- no -- no matter how we feel like counterinsurgency strategy that is undermined the ability of our troops to do that I'm done I'm not -- it I'm I'm -- I'm anti -- but.
That is made it even worse.
And with that -- President Obama I think it's gonna double down on stupid here by the fact they wanted the administration by all indications and I've I've got congressional documents here in congress has been demanding.
The NIE on Afghanistan be released which actually says.
The moment we leave it all goes to that that that that the failure we saw the Soviets have if that's what the intelligence telling us.
So again we got to -- -- we got to get there's a way of winning this but slugging it out with a collar -- is not going to be a winning strategy.
All right sum -- up -- as as briefly incessantly as you can -- What is the way to win this.
The path to victory is Pakistan the Pakistan is controlling the collar about negotiating directly with colonized we -- have -- negotiating with three east.
We should be dealing with the caveat that the Pakistan business issue directly secondly we have to accept the fact that they're gonna wanna have influenced Afghanistan.
The Indians have been there and frankly one of the reason that -- network one of the -- -- elements have been used by the pakistanis is to destabilize the irony in the Indian effort.
To establish a foothold and and Afghanistan so we have to accept the fact that the pakistanis are more aware about the Indians.
Then they are about the -- -- So this is -- talk about being more realistic and frankly we need to be the ones out of the middle right now we'd the American military are in the middle of the Talabani and the cars like government.
We need to extract ourselves as quickly as possible focus on what our interest are not a making -- the Afghan people.
Fit into a democracy is just dug guys not in the cards I'm -- say I'll OK lieutenant colonel Tony -- the send different bonds' defense study's author of a operation dot com thanks very much as always -- Thank John and I don't.
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