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That's the number of delegates available in Republican open primary nominating contest today.
Happening across the globe actually Hawaii Americans that mullah.
And Mississippi now all apologies to our friends -- the Pacific.
But we're gonna focus not on the twenty delegates in Hawaii.
And six delegates in -- -- Mitt Romney's expected -- very well there you know they say as goes mom show goes Samoa.
But we're gonna focus down here right in the heart of Dixie.
These states Mississippi and Alabama that are arguably the heart of the Republican Party.
Deep in the south delegate rich and full of conservative voters.
And as this Republican race has been rolling along.
It's been building up to this moment in a lot of ways -- testing ground for the three remaining contenders.
Newt Gingrich and Rick Santorum.
So here's the deal let's start with Alabama the larger prize.
47 delegates -- from Alabama there -- three that won't be awarded those -- party state party executives but for the 47 that are available.
Are from the congressional districts in the state the seven congressional districts in the state and 26 were awarded proportionally.
From across the day so it's the bigger prize of the -- Now let's look at what Mitt Romney needs to do it.
And I would point you first and foremost to right here.
Now this is the heart of Alabama.
Literally and figuratively.
This is Birmingham.
And this is not usually -- that Republicans care yes -- And let's.
-- -- for you here there is basically dividing line that goes along here -- side of Jefferson -- on the south side southeast side of that line are wealthy.
Upscale some of the very wealthiest neighborhoods actually and all of south all of the country so that's very important -- can't so that's very key.
Also key of course is Shelby county which is the biggest trove of Republican votes in the state.
These are suburbanites.
-- their focus is on the Birmingham media market this is what they're thinking about Shelby county.
Mitt Romney needs to come out here at least a winner at least get a third of the votes or better to come out of here of -- More important.
By far more important for Mitt Romney though I want you to think about this is right here here's the big prize for Mitt Romney.
Down there that's metro mobile.
This area is tremendously.
These are Republican by and large these counties are Republican by and large but they are also the seat of the Republican establishment the political establishment in the whole state.
To read All the King's Men down and burdens landing well these are these kinds of upscale folks down here the gentry of the deep south who are here.
These are the voters that Mitt Romney needs convinced.
Yes especially on this side.
Of the of the divide and I want to take you right here just so that you concede up close.
You have Baldwin county.
And you have mobile -- over here.
Baldwin county more resort oriented mobile -- -- Republicans but again very very wealthy.
So that's the stronghold this is where he needs to fight but here.
Is potentially his place to make it happen.
Montgomery State Capitol very important.
-- done well in state capitals this is a place that he can do very well and then of course we look around -- -- me.
-- -- Down here -- Pike County this whole region is gonna go against him this part of the state but if he can strike hard.
They -- in Montgomery he can view a very good job.
OK so out.
He's got his own way to make this work -- and I want to show you essentially the challenge for Rick Santorum so you have.
The State Capitol right -- -- you have the largest city Birmingham right here what Rick Santorum needs to do this is.
A wall that he needs to take.
This county Shelby -- going to be the battleground.
But what Rick Santorum can do in these industrial areas Tuscaloosa.
It's had a rough out here on the north and west side.
Rick Santorum can strike his -- if he can hold Mitt Romney even down here in Shelby county he can run up the -- they are provided Newt Gingrich doesn't eat his lunch.
Another place -- he can do well in this -- probably been overlooked by some campaigns is down here in this corner of the state.
Above the Florida Panhandle Houston Geneva.
Coffee counting lot of votes down there.
Right on two former speaker Gingrich he needs to do well everywhere.
That those guys are doing well he needs to hold his -- obviously nobody's gonna win.
Without Shelby county nobody's gonna win without doing those things but for Gingrich this is the -- Madison County Huntsville and then you come down here limestone county.
Down here to Morgan -- This area is around them NASA center of the rockets -- that's their Newt Gingrich loves the space program but these are also apple -- and voters.
-- people who are well from Hillary you're familiar with the speaker from his years representing Georgia.
There -- some cultural resonance here if Gingrich is gonna win he's got a hold his -- here.
Do OK here not get blown out there and then -- being in Huntsville that's how Newt Gingrich can win it okay now.
Let's look at the larger question.
You got Alabama then you go to Mississippi.
So for Mississippi.
Many fewer votes.
And fewer delegates 37 delegates up for grabs a twelve of them congressional districts 25 or proportionally.
Laid out and for the state this summer to remember this is hard when the call is they've never had consequential Republican primary.
Ever -- the Republican race never -- along the Mississippi gets to have its voice.
And so we are absolutely.
Bewildered by the polls that come out that show race -- close -- changes of lead all that stuff but let's make it very clear.
And I'm just gonna divide the state three -- so here is.
It's good for Romney.
Here is good for Santorum.
And then here is on the other side of this line basically across this part of this day.
Gingrich Romney Santoro.
This is Memphis suburb.
Rick Rick Santorum did great in the Memphis suburbs in the Tennessee primary.
Evangelical voters DeSoto county right up here on the line that's suburban Memphis he can really run up the score -- -- For.
We as we talked about in Alabama.
For Mitt Romney the keys -- to be down here to really rack up some numbers in these coastal counties higher per capita income will industry some of the gentry.
This is a good place from -- big -- for Gingrich this triangle here.
And this is and this is really.
Very important to him Hattiesburg and I wanted to show you vary quickly.
Want to take in right here not Jones campaign.
But force -- okay for -- this is that.
59 -- 59 -- -- -- stand here and goes into Louisiana.
He got a lot of town she got -- river county Hancock county.
But this is indicative of what Newt Gingrich -- he was the rest of the state.
That's not here that's not there and is not here in the biggest electoral prize which is Jackson -- and its environs if they.
Each do what they need to do there.
You'll have a fight to the finish.
And it's not Jackson County -- -- it's Hinds County.
You have a fight to the finish right here in Jackson.
And more importantly Franken campaign which is again suburban to the east you know you have some suburbs here -- Madison canning.
And then you go up.
Where's my -- as you -- So all through this region you have the chance for.
Any of them to do well and here's what we'd like most about it -- here's while will be watching.
This whole part here.
The reason this is so important and -- crossing you -- Jackson but the reason this is so important.
Is that they should all be able to do well here it's loaded with white evangelicals like should be good for Rick Santorum.
It's got some upscale voters that should be good for Mitt Romney in the suburbs but it's also.
One of the southerner with southern -- southern cities in America Jackson is it a -- spot a beautiful place and they take deep pride.
In their southern yes there's reason to think that Newt Gingrich from Georgia should be able to make a regional cultural play especially since he's running in the middle.
-- more conservative.
Van -- but he says more electable.
Than Rick Santorum so everything comes down to that.
-- Mississippi pretty big deal Alabama pretty big deal of the Dixie primaries gonna change the pattern of course.
Of this Republican nominating contest for one way or the other could be the end of the road for Newt Gingrich could be the beginning of the end for Rick Santorum or it could be fresh trouble for Mitt Romney.
Who -- but will now later on tonight when the results start coming in front of you be watching that.
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