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State of the GOP Race

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    Chris Stirewalt and Gentry Collins discuss the Dixie Primary

  • Duration 9:29
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He may be the front runner but he's -- weakest front runners is Leonard wood.

In 1920.

And I think that the odds against his -- -- 11144.

Delegates is very very high I think he's more like to be a front runner who ends up not finishing the race.

It's very very clear where this race -- If the people of Alabama Mississippi.

All the step -- horses today we want this to get to a two person race -- want this to be a race but we have an.

-- of the convention about before -- convention.

Tonight.

Who can stand up for the values people now I am I believe -- and -- for everything.

And that was what you'd be hearing if you are an Alabama -- that was former Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney.

Campaigning down in Alabama hoping for a birthday present a belated birthday present for his 65 which was yesterday.

That was Newt Gingrich.

Making -- comparison between himself and -- -- -- The dark horse winner at the Republican Convention in 1920.

On the record with Greta Van Susteren and Rick Santorum.

Telling people voters -- Alabama and Mississippi to put an end to all of this unite behind him so that he can defeat Mitt Romney before the Republican race gets to the convention and it is in fact Dixie Tuesday.

Mississippi and Alabama.

3747.

Delegates respectful I was.

Respectively lots of momentum a crucial turning point in this long range he rode to the Republican nomination.

This is power play.

And please welcome.

Gentry Collins welcome back -- -- counts former political director for the Republican National Committee and he is a big deal at the firm C -- public affairs welcome back thanks road okay now.

Before you and I start slicing and guys in this thing let's get let's get the word from the front lines campaign Carl Cameron Cameron is there in the Pittsburgh of the south.

Birmingham Alabama in Jefferson County Carl what's the word.

Three -- split with a three way split and a model afterwards for the delegates when we get out of the deep south the Alabama and Mississippi contests.

Are definitely confusing the -- cup campaigns.

Newt Gingrich was hoping to win both.

He started sort of aggressively saying that well you know always a delegate race has a long one -- -- really can't win.

He's not gonna get the lion's share Gingrich himself has acknowledge that it's likely to be a 13 13 13 split or very close to it.

Between himself -- Rick Santorum and Mitt Romney self.

Gingrich is not going to get the do or die sweep of the deep south that.

Many thought he was sort of saying he had to have just a couple weeks ago.

Rick Santorum is tweaking Newt Gingrich he says he will not directly ask the former speaker to bow out of the race.

But he could barely be less brutal with his rhetoric about how bad it would be if the conservatives continue to stay divided and allow Mitt Romney rack up delegates in the hunt.

And Mitt Romney who has outspent Rick Santorum and Newt Gingrich and Alabama and Mississippi.

And the pro Romney super -- has added well over a million dollars on top of that.

Has probably better organization in Mississippi than many actually have given him credit for and he has been in this state in terms of his campaign's president's presents.

A lot longer than Santorum and Gingrich have so he has a little bit of a grassroots there that perhaps hasn't been quite as recognized in the popular opinion polling.

Which says that indeed sixty to 70% of Republicans and Alabama and Mississippi your self described evangelicals very conservative or Tea Party members and that's that.

Those -- the constituencies those of the voting blocs that have been less favorable to Mitt Romney preceding race itself.

We head into this with -- Gingrich saying I'm gonna keep on going all the way to the convention -- -- and that's a really bad idea because I'm the only guy can beat Mitt Romney and it's making it hard.

And Romney saying hey check out the delegate count I'm gonna get a third I'm still way ahead of these other two guys.

So whether it's pivotal -- crucial or not it makes a great deal about Romney's viability in the south -- -- liability nationwide.

And whether or not Santorum gets that number two slot running against Mitt Romney.

-- very important question before we let you go have you been to dreamland for the -- -- I have not.

Food that that that the campaign trail hasn't allowed for that.

However.

We we expect we'll get played good barbecue before the -- out.

It's very good Carl Cameron from Birmingham we thank you so much.

Okay -- so here's the deal.

And we will I promised by the Internet let's talk about what you're gonna say there's a lot yet for -- -- -- we're gonna take -- -- the -- -- we're gonna talk about -- touch -- What's going on these days how they vote you'll enjoy that Alice Stewart she's from this reform contentious spokeswoman -- gonna talk about the stakes for him.

You'll see any Weinstein he's from the daily caller you like him so we said we'd have been back I don't know why but you said you liked him but it's fun but right now gentry.

Let's talk about the overall stakes coming out of the south.

We know that these primaries are very important.

But the question is this.

If Newt Gingrich doesn't win at least one of these states is this to -- -- Well it shouldn't be of course we've seen a.

We've we've seen this cycle of course that that federal super -- and even individual donors and federal super -- Can Kerry campaign that.

A historically would have would have folded up right many contests ago he himself said earlier in the in the year that he had to win both of these contests.

I he's counting on -- southern strategy I don't know that he can possibly lose them both.

And have any rationale to continue on an end if you were asked if he shares in the rhetoric with Santorum that he wants a conservative alternative to Romney.

At some point he's got to realize that he is an impediment to Santorum -- that alternative.

Well but couldn't he say the same Santorum well he sure could -- it has I think he has he has and of course that's exactly the reason that the dynamic in this race fundamentally hasn't changed even though -- some two dozen contests in which is that there is clearly room for not only candidate.

But we're getting later later later and the dynamic is not a lot for -- singled out -- Canada which is imperative if the formula that involved what do -- What about the fact that in the latest Wall Street Journal Mitt Romney beat.

Among registered Republican voters beat Rick Santorum and head to head 5545.

It's it seems like this question here.

Yes Gingrich is taking from Santorum Santorum is -- for Gingrich but they're not taking all.

Some of those some of those votes end up with Romney is he getting closer to a point where he can actually do this on his -- Well I think he's almost inevitable already I think that that the F.

If tonight is not.

Narrow the field to one an alternative to Romney I think is all but impossible for anybody else to go to the convention with enough delegates to say with a straight face they've got an opportunity for Newt Gingrich -- Leonard wood well if I us.

-- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- I was told today I want my coworkers that this was actually featured in an episode of boardwalk empire and so maybe people know about this but the as the ballots went forward.

Warren G.

Harding.

Of Ohio senator from Ohio had been there five or 6% but in the end win Leonard wood couldn't get over the top.

That in like the fifteenth ballot Harding got it is that -- scenario still possible now that we have -- only bound delegates so many pledged delegates.

I want you you set yourself I think the fact of the matter now is that.

Delegates -- go bound.

May very well get Romney over the 1144 mark and he's closing and or have been more than doubled up in fact -- he has more than -- -- up on about delegates vs the vs the rest of the field combined credit -- to take.

Ron Paul Rick Santorum and Newt Gingrich combined all of their delegates are -- delegates.

A Romney exceeds that total number that all the rest of them have and remember.

All of this -- that Romney couldn't do well in the south -- took as many delegates out of the south.

On Super Tuesday as any other candidate if you count Virginia as -- southern steady temperature let's the other campaigns will say well we were on the ballot and -- and -- say yes you weren't on the ballot exactly yeah.

It's accurate to say well we're -- Iran is gonna say yeah you were outspent have been who's gonna run better campaign -- against Barack Obama the guy you can.

Get on the ballot and compete with him financially -- the guys who can't.

So he took as many delegates out of the south.

A week ago he's very likely take more delegates out of the south tonight and let's not forget you've got another US territory in Hawaii -- tonight classics -- so there's some Mullins are common and so undoubtedly Romney will take more delegates out of tonight.

Than at any other carrier I think your question is simply whether the field -- winner down to one an alternative to Romney and then you've got a question going forward about whether that's enough to deny Iran the nomination.

Gentry Collins -- -- has a real job we thank you for coming back to play politics with us again we thank you very much.

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