What happens if the individual mandate is overturned?
Political implications of Supreme Court's decision
- Duration 5:14
- Date Mar 31, 2012
Political implications of Supreme Court's decision
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Do I think it would damage from Democrats -- overturn don't you you folks read stuff more than I do there's a significant school of thought that.
The administration is.
Puts on a better position for their.
Collection if it's turned down.
Well that was senate majority leader Harry Reid speculating on the potential political benefit for the president and Democrats -- all or part of Obama -- is overturned so let's assume Joseph for the sake of argument that that happens let's.
Talk about the health care system first.
To this law if the mandate and some of the main regulations are are -- we.
Just gonna have incredible amount of uncertainty.
Even more so than we have with the law as it is now you're gonna -- have a hole right right in the middle of it and I think congress is gonna have to go back one way or the other.
And and either defer this for a year two years maybe longer in and come up with something that -- work with which out there at the heart of.
When you still have potentially the that a lot of it's still in -- you still have -- the states having to put together the exchange you might still have.
That the subsidies in place but no cost control mechanism to control.
The cost of health care.
Right now it exactly you you'll have it.
Regime like in six states right now.
-- they have all kinds of regulations that drive up health costs but nothing to offset.
So I I think you're you're gonna see major problem.
What about the political implications -- -- by Harry Reid's argument that if this goes down and James Carville argument the democratic consultant that this would help Democrats.
I don't see how it helps them at all I mean this is something they said they've been trying to do for seventy years it was the crown -- only seven now.
-- was I talked about during the the depression and Roosevelt years and this is the crown tool of president Obama's excuse me first term.
And for the Supreme Court to overturn it.
I think is a significant blow to the democratic idea and sure they'll try to demonize the Supreme Court what else -- going to do.
But I think out there among average voters.
It's gonna suppress the president's support but you have a lot of Republicans -- it even this week were -- oh my gosh lose our best issue.
If this is if this is defeated and Stephen King -- -- colleagues to give Russell wrote about the Iowa congress who was saying oh man this will be back.
Does that make any sense.
It makes sense if you think about how it's bad for Obama it's the art Lars -- out because that means that -- Toronto on this widely hated law.
That side is are going to -- terrible fact Jeff Carter like Dan if you're like -- news and you think as I do that this is that they they want this because they really want the government to run health -- this is that this is the culmination of the social welfare all right but that's a that's a policy argument this is you -- an argument about the short term political fact.
It doesn't really make sense to say it's going to help Obama to have his signature initiative deemed unconstitutional.
And it's it's hard to see how it helps -- -- -- either way.
And so the answer is.
Really what happened was this law that was passed two years ago was a political disaster for Obama either way he's going to pay the price for November -- what about the court itself when it thinks about it particularly Chief Justice John Roberts when he thinks about the reputation of the the court they know he knows he must know that if -- is a 54 decision.
That the left that maybe even the president himself or is really going to go after the Supreme Court and say fundamentally this was a political judgment another bush -- Gore you know do you think that would give the -- the justices pause to saying I want.
Whatever we think about the -- the pop that that the constitutional.
We have to think about the reputation of the court and so we're gonna be very cautious here about overturning the law.
Well I understand that concern but I think what we have here is a division similar to -- we've talked about before which is the partisan division in congress itself.
What everyone followed this case and obviously that case was argued seriously overview issue of you know extension really substantive issues very substantive issues and what we discovered is.
This court the courts are divided over the law over the that the left in the -- divided over the interpretation of the extent of federal power vis a vis the states and the individual.
And this is they are now so far apart it's going to be very different difficult to bring them together just -- this is difficult now bring congress together.
And ultimately I think this is sort of thing has be resolved in the election Booth and in the November election the American people have to think about which direction they want to go it.
Joseph what do you think should happen.
I think 54 decision upholding monologue but.
Right on the edge there -- could go could go either way James.
Are also -- 54 but to our strike down the mandate and after sitting through the -- ability session this week.
I think there's a good chance the -- what -- -- -- would be impossible to imagine Anthony Kennedy supporting the manatee mandate after all the criticism articulate the criticism he made in those hearings this is bigger than one president or one one election or even one loss -- about the structure of the American government and liberty and I hope the justices.
Take it that way and for ignore all of the outside politics when we come back.