Is gender affecting the presidential elections?
Pat Caddell, Doug Schoen and John LeBoutillier discuss current election polls
- Duration 14:19
- Date Apr 2, 2012
Pat Caddell, Doug Schoen and John LeBoutillier discuss current election polls
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Hello good morning the morning -- -- we are here I'm sorry you just have to follow me here folks.
This is campaign insiders on Pat -- on -- was my colleagues.
With the onset New York is John will be playing.
And with us in hopefully there he is in Washington the professor Doug -- I hope you felt.
And we're glad to be with few into the on this Monday morning and let me tell you how -- goes on a -- start by reminding -- -- comments.
Or you have questions you want to ask where you want -- yell at us or informants because we sometimes miss things.
Please do so you're -- -- -- you're inside the system now also send comments and I wanna start by saying there was a big -- this morning.
The USA today Gallup poll which has been doing measuring a consistent twelve swing states.
And -- three months ago four months ago Obama look like he was in real trouble that's the -- about right now -- loose swing states.
-- in yellow.
-- -- knows states in them a month ago.
Romney was leading President Obama invite -- to -- the numbers are 5142.
For Obama a minus and on.
And the biggest switch -- been among women which has been it.
A real crater ring with women.
And since this is appointed as I said the professor has mentioned before I'm going to give them all the credit right now -- let him explain to the audience what's happened -- it's -- -- well.
Pat that -- did that did deference is appreciated.
I just a word of clarification.
Before you get into profess our preferred doctor so I'm done all right go yeah yeah I just don't -- -- -- -- for our audience but.
-- here's the Sears point pat makes.
We had said all along that when the Republicans began.
On the issue of contraception and what they've characterized as -- issues of religious freedom.
We've said that this was gonna produce.
A gender gap because women would see it as if not a war on woman but -- we litigation.
Other issues surrounding contraception and to a lesser extent access to abortion rights.
And this is become a vehement issue on the Republican.
Right but for voters in the senate their question is very simple what is this could mean to me and is it -- mean less access to birth control.
And is this an attempt by the Republicans to clamp down on women and I think.
The polling that.
USA today sites and other polls that we've seen both Wall Street Journal and the ABC polls I think pat show compellingly.
That the gender gap is as large as it's ever been an almost totally explains.
Why President Obama holds close 288 to ten point lead over governor Romney.
Well he's got an AT -- this poll he's got an eighteen point margin lead with women.
Over President Obama overall.
And with women under fifty it's it's it's in the stratosphere.
Is John what do you think what's your reaction to that.
Why I'd like to listen to doctor shown mr.
Santelli have a lot of experience of these issues and -- -- and congressman.
Yeah but I I want I asked pat.
Doug before the show to talk to me a little bit as a -- long time.
What what why is there a gender gap.
Built -- now every year the Republicans are on the negative end of -- gender gap why is that.
Well I think I think in part it's because.
Lot of women are much more.
They're they're much more nurturing I think there is a difference between men and women folks -- just -- it looks.
And -- -- have been very straightforwardly.
And I think women's issues to worry about the family they worry about I don't think too many women hold on women's issues I.
-- -- while he's getting his life back in.
The dog you can hear -- can't you.
It's very -- -- -- is so so the same question that I asked pat what what do you think about I.
I think it's three or four things look.
The Republicans are the party I think of men there -- The harshness of their approach.
Of the arguments they make and the lack of an appeal to what pat was starting to talk about.
They're nurturing caring side because we are dealing with.
An electorate particularly the swing voters John.
Who are not just you know pure.
Just get government off my back vs.
Other voters who are for more active involvement of government and people's lives -- people feel the government can play a role.
In enhancing social services and so far the Republicans have been so far John on the extreme right and hostile to issues like.
Contraception and family planning that I think gets hurt them and heard about.
I want to offer -- -- that because I think he's more than just those issues.
I think cold so when you see the damage the Republican brand it's taken.
In this poll the preference numbers of women have skyrocketed.
It's Democrats over Republicans.
Men -- a much more split actually admit -- slightly more Republican.
I think that there is here however to the negativity of the Republican Party in this primary process.
There's been so great the negative attacks we know women instinctively.
React less well than men -- -- -- released in May still be effective.
But I think the whole negativity the whole -- idea rather then went to a dog -- been saying and I've been saying you've been saying all this job.
Will you needed much more positive agenda they have no visionary agenda women are reacting to -- because -- President Obama is personally popular.
I think you get a reaction that.
That that the works just -- guess who was not personally populist I think there is safe there's a there's a confluence here both be negative view women.
On the Republican side and Romney himself in if we can put up the numbers on Romney's favorability in the Washington Post poll.
For those of you who see it it is he is he is running right now 34%.
50% unfavorable that's of all voters registered -- and adults excuse me.
In the Washington Post poll it's obviously works with women and more in the war frankly it's worse with independents.
And don't you might want to speak that you were John boat.
I missed some of what pat was saying drugs or five -- -- -- where where he's -- apple -- in the Washington Post poll that shows on.
Personal popularity in favorability Romney has a negative sixteen he's got 34.
Positive fifty unfavorable.
And I believe yesterday before we -- our show yesterday Doug you said to somebody.
If you have a 50%.
Unfavorable rating your virtually O'Donnell counter as a channel as -- challenger you almost can't went.
Here's why did we lost decidedly -- that I -- wherever you real.
Wherever from one they pick up on this -- in let me tell voters -- -- -- -- viewers why I think this poll was so important.
Just as -- someone who's been in the business phone.
You don't pull through different you -- a poll today from the Washington Post may have won for the galloping may have won from New York Times and of course from fox.
But here is this this pole is -- consistently -- poll that Gallup does for USA today every month.
It's the same methodology the same question ink and therefore -- -- takes on greater -- you when you see the -- From being strongly.
Or ball out of rob for raw -- back before Christmas.
Canal being such a rapidly declining depth of the rapidly -- digging the hole deeper for Romney.
It means a lot to me as a pollster I'm looking back going this is genuine.
This is not artificial but having said that this is not the end of the road by any means and I have said the warmest safest.
That Romney has gone and I said this yesterday on our show.
For those of you who really know this you can watch us actually on fox news network every Sunday around 545530.
I said I think Romney's got sixty days.
To turn the surround is a candidate he used dogs from -- for a few weeks ago.
He may be inevitable -- -- is not certain -- he's electable now the question is is he electable I think he has to turn that around cutting.
-- did this so I John I think he's got to do that are real salty what no political party is required by law to commit suicide.
And with a candidate is gonna take him and by the way given these -- numbers take the Republican senate prospects out as well was probably lose in the.
Well as we pointed out yesterday pat.
Two senate races that were dead even a month ago Florida and Ohio both -- democratic incumbents who were vulnerable -- Nelson Sherrod Brown of Ohio.
And in the latest polling they're both.
Now ahead by eight points which mirrors Romney's deterioration and maybe the entire Republican brands deterioration.
Through the primaries.
Well and you can see this and I think you're right it did does go.
Right through in the Republicans who think don't know we don't need to worry about president we're gonna win the senate -- control of congress I have news for you this is a kind of year.
Wind and everything could go.
If people aren't happy you know when we talked about that favorability -- -- When the president is plus ten and Romney is minus sixteen is he was in the Washington hopeful that's minus 46 margin -- All right so.
Anyway and by the way -- so what we see is not only this poll in the swing states we've seen the same poll.
Results from the scene in where it's eleven point.
The lead for.
Obama over Romney in the Suffolk University poll.
Which is and I ask you can't ask you Doug's question.
Let's say you're running the Romney campaign.
And you you see these numbers about the gender gap what are you two guys have bought what can be done.
Maybe not solve it but to make it an acceptable gender dog.
New Mexico -- the first the first thing that I would say is we need to project a positive.
Message for governor -- That's not directly responsive John to your question but I can say this if all he does is run a negative.
Campaign against his Republican opponents and President Obama.
It's safe to say that his image from harshness.
And hostility will be reinforced so we need to positive campaign.
He also needs to be put in the context with real people.
Assessing real people's problems.
And he needs to speak to concerns about social issues -- social welfare he can't just decide that low taxes low spending and a lack of regulation.
Magically gonna solve.
Every problem so combination of those three factors are really to me the bare minimum to get his campaign off the -- and.
-- reverse if you're the Obama campaign and you have determined that Romney is going to be the nominate.
Can you do something now I'm rich right consumers -- -- my point -- I wish I.
Listen while you -- you -- in politics.
Hitting your opponent when they're down as the way is -- way to go.
And if he's having this kind of damage would they really wanted to do was go win there if they -- -- -- Obama campaign.
Because they are very vulnerable which we will get -- and discussed and Michelle Obama this is -- because Obama is doing great folks he's doing okay.
The but he is very vulnerable but she would go when they are -- -- -- in their right now and trying to -- those beliefs -- Romney so that they stopped paying attention.
Could finish him off if they could early if they do that they can shut the Election Day out in his Doug and I both have experience and in Doug I think more directly to this.
Would Bob Dole.
Is that if you take this late spring.
-- and and and solidified in negative attitude on the opponent the elections effectively over.
Right -- -- pat -- pointing to something we talked about yesterday.
I remember in the spring of 96.
Bob Dole was consolidating the nomination.
He was -- and did leave the senate so he could become an outsider.
And we knew that if we attacked him front to leave them.
We would effectively win the election by July 1 or roughly.
I guess maybe nine -- days.
But well within -- sixty day rubric.
We have made Bob Dole on electable and the election was effectively over and I think that's the Obama campaign strategy.
And I increasingly you're gonna see them using issues like contraception choice energy health care.
And the light and fire that and Medicare tucked under -- under -- of mine that Canada's a lot of primary than.
And let's talk about the blast -- you just mentioned on Medicare because Romney.
Who was endorsed by Paul Ryan who I like to say is it on a one man mission which for the Republican possibilities.
To win the -- to the election this year.
With his insistence.
On single handedly and being serious and progress and promoting.
Cheney and we need right about the need to you'll entitlements but he didn't want -- and they on the other side won't play in he's handing the Democrats is massive club when you should Republicans are instinctively with voters weak on.
Social security and Medicare.
And you just said Romney now he not only endorsed Romney Romney endorsed his plan they won correct.
Correct and that's absolute truth Annie Annie went -- went went Gingrich was doing pretty well a couple months ago he came out on a Friday afternoon and endorsed the Medicare plan.
-- try to go to the right of Memphis remember -- got into trouble last summer.
Paul Ryan's plan right wing social engineer and he got nailed by a lot of conservatives for that.
I'm a conserve.
We need Medicare reform.
But the way to do it is not to lead a -- When you can't pass it when you can't get it through the senate what is the point that you're giving an issue to the other party to use in the election.