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Goodbye recovery? Hello recession?

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    Stocks suffer biggest weekly decline in 2012

  • Duration 8:54
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-- stalling march posting the US gains of the year and now more big companies are cutting.

-- only coming off their worst week of the year is -- good -- recovery hello recession.

Hi everyone I'm Brenda -- Arab thing is -- and -- -- Iraq.

-- -- -- Bulls and -- this week Tobin Smith Jonas Max Ferris Gary Smith along with Julian Epstein and Todd John -- welcomed everybody.

Todd is the recovery heading into a new reception.

It is -- let me tell you hop acts just document this alone.

It is look you have a 120000.

Jobs right now if you look at the last six months.

All the new jobs created 70% of them actually are of the low income variety.

Retail hospitality leisure those are not going to be the jobs to sustain growths at the airport you have negative berth in quarters the com.

That means we're heading into a recession and that documentation and that data everything crews have -- I found out -- -- gone.

And.

I've got to look at first sub one month doesn't mean anything you know that better than anybody said Barry if you look at that the over all data you -- -- -- -- -- here these -- -- all the way through those numbers and look at focused on that we -- the market down because the Fed decided to tell the people who -- -- the liquidity that maybe there are going to be -- -- for the next 25 years I think every -- I think that developers started the -- -- -- the -- trading week here I thought it was also I'm sorry for crying out so that doesn't count.

But some point we're going to -- says it would say we read negative growth and there is no way if you look at -- forward indicator forget about it I think softball we're all absolutely everybody's body is going to be selling -- it's not going to be great.

Whoever -- 280000.

Jobs is on -- you know.

Dividend -- -- -- but the bigger.

Issue is that we are continuing to have sustainable growth don't kid yourself.

Kelly and never thought that mean I have -- -- hoping.

No actually I agree with -- -- somewhere on his feet and I but I agree with them and he's and I think taught probably at I think I think I've probably in the extreme minority.

Adobe's right you have to look at the big picture the big picture is the first quarter of this year.

Is the best performance in terms of job creation in the last six years in the last what kind of -- -- we've had four million.

Talk about us finish yet it we've had four million jobs created in the last two years.

I remember where we were coming from what you know it went when Obama came in in 09 we were losing 800000 jobs a month we're -- negative 8% GDP.

We're now creating somewhere between 100 -- 200000 jobs a month and -- in around 2% GDP so I think it's a question whether you're looking at the glass.

This record is full or quarter of the -- looks -- -- reporter Judy -- most of the rest of us most of the rest of us look at it as three quarters full.

OK hold on hold my -- We're excited we're gonna get you in a minute I -- Gary beaten with Gary I know you aren't concerned about growth though aren't you.

I I well first -- and I think Todd needs -- -- -- these dividend duties -- -- that I thought about it a little bit of but second of all I I am concerned here are met I'll give fit the half full a case first.

The Fed has been put in a lot of cheap money into the economy that's the good news is still sloshing around out there.

I think that that's helpful the bad news is.

It gets right back to what we -- with -- the unemployment you have an effective look the devils can spin it anyway they want the effective unemployment rate is about 15%.

That has really not budged in the past few months -- -- was what's holding us back you have that you have an anti business.

Administration.

At the highest corporate tax rates -- we talked about.

Last week in the world and you have -- campaign about taxing the rich even more so you got orange for north you're saying she's I don't know I went up.

You know start up or build my business you got corporations that are sent -- we're gonna expand overseas.

So all these things together are.

Are kind of combating what the Fed's been doing that's why I think it's almost worse than a recession -- I think we're gonna muddle through.

And endlessly like -- like we did back in the seventies maybe for few more years so this.

And and during the seventies I think that Dow started.

The same word -- plays exactly like.

Yeah -- -- off talking about this liquidity sloshing around and really what you're saying is that interest rates are gonna stay Lotto.

The exact that's what it means faster and it climatic out to the Smart boy chair now Jonas if you tell us I don't really.

I'm certain -- near the Smart boy yeah.

I I would present the -- I was divide teacher would say I've got there was an interest rates and apparel tax cut on Gaza 120000 jobs.

The only concern here is that we Arnie stimulus mode with an art -- loads payroll tax rate -- -- government and we're not create an -- jobs.

That doesn't mean we're in a double dip recession there's been a lot of money not -- in the stock market of people predicting a recession these last couple years.

It's a sluggish recovery that's not a recession.

He can keep stocks where they are we're not gonna have -- runaway growth probably not gonna have that when they eventually pull away the punch bowl in the year two with the taxes and the low interest -- But the -- sliding -- recession is still slow growth it's gonna take.

Very long time now and get to it to unemployment rates we had a few years ago.

Before the last recession I -- Yeah.

-- talk about it.

Involvement.

Talk about -- that about -- and everybody there art book here's the thing you wouldn't that we -- been in a recession we would we would never recovered out of the last recession from a couple of years ago that it wasn't part of fed involvement now we have to wonder where -- -- -- where the bombs sent delegates and then ended it there and right now -- but I can't think you don't have the government Bobbitt fed involvement.

Worst of growth -- frank let me tell me guys.

It is that don't -- that the crux of our question of the 120000 jobs is not gonna grow us out of this you know -- there were removed I know we argues that.

But but to Gary's point -- point was saying is that you know blah blah blah all the bad stuff that the administration's done for the last three years.

That's already priced did I think we've gotten a little closer but they have had thought the second thing isn't that we.

We got another leg you know -- six months of this morass of the people not feeling good about.

Where the government's going but nothing's changed that's -- -- got me I.

I I grants priced into the market.

-- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- but let's and I think there's an and I think it's not you guys aren't I don't know what they -- report tell all eyes are important site -- time.

Have to look at the long view here that yeah I don't I don't feel like I know I know I -- -- -- -- I know talk yeah.

It's as.

-- -- -- -- Go ahead please do I I do think we are missing a couple points I take I take whoever was.

-- his point about corporate taxes.

But taxes on most Americans are at historic lows right now one.

-- -- I do think we do have to take the long -- we do have to look at where we came from three years ago which again was negative -- growth we're losing 800000 jobs a year.

I agree with -- that 100000 and it isn't enough but if you look at the performance in the first quarter it's pretty darn good so I think.

There are I don't be pollyannish about this but -- don't want to be.

You know the -- that that Todd is here I think at least the trend lines are looking in the right direction.

Well let's not freak -- -- one month I -- that's another point is that that you know when you make these predictions yet to pick a lot of data together and add it up onto a trend that trend has not broken do you dare you the chart and you know that to just like oh my gosh this -- -- -- -- 120000 jobs if we would have 30000 jobs and home.

You know in the home survey was there in the corporate -- -- we would have much bigger number so.

Let's let's be little commerce -- what's the piece of the economy that's collapsing -- caused the recession right the technology sector collapse into -- as we had the housing market.

Where's this big party coming shrinking right now really fuss is gonna cause this recession he.

What I thought pattern you're seeing -- that's Tuesday and if that student debt that household.

-- you're right household balance sheet right there isn't this a -- right now you have more people they know more money than what they're making right now.

-- yeah the last three years taught him.

That the retail numbers Roberto do you know this over the last sixty days retail numbers are up people are spending the weather's better but that the man does not -- corporations do not have to go out and hire as a matter of fact they're laying off Yahoo! right now JC Penney.

It's almost like a little -- the economy elegant I want -- settle down you know what.

You guys your -- milk toast gang next time I got it.

-- get kicked out all right.

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