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All this Gordon Chang he's well known to us here Fox News for his expertise on what's happening in -- create great to have you here thanks for joining us.
When you take a look what's going on this time you are among those who believe that this time they will have a successful launch altogether when you -- -- -- Well for -- -- 20062009.
They had unsuccessful launches.
And then you learn a lot from on successes.
Even more than the successes so I think that just the law of averages says that they'll do well.
But also they got a lot riding on this this is the hundredth anniversary of the birth Kim Il -- the founder of North Korea.
This launch is timed to coincide with his the -- And also we know of North Korea sells this stuff to the Iranians this is a big sales demonstration.
It means hundreds of millions of dollars in additional sales if they're successful.
And that's important for -- North Korea that has a gross domestic product of maybe.
Billion dollars built -- building we're in has a bigger GDP -- and all of North Korea so.
This is going to be a really important.
-- four -- the budget North Korea.
The fact that they're inviting observers and journalists western journalists in.
I -- that I -- just read anything into that is that is supposed to show and attack the difference between.
And the sun.
Who is now in charge.
The departure from the way they -- protocols like this.
I think it shows a lot of confidence.
That this time it's actually going to work.
This is unprecedented for them they wanna scare us a little bit so they're trying to build up the drama and they're doing a pretty good job of it as they usually do.
But I I think that really what there is is he of course is a new regime -- -- Kim Jong-un.
He took over after the death of his father in December.
And but I don't think the regime has really changed that much I think that this is really an attempt to say look.
We are going to be successful we're gonna get this thing into space and nobody believes -- course as a camera pointing out that this is a satellite weather satellite and no is pretty unlikely they said this also in 2009 and 1998 there were no satellites but.
Even if it -- satellite is still a violation of the 2006 and 2009.
Security Council resolutions which prohibited.
Essentially the launch of ballistic missile technology.
And this rocket if it's indeed a rocket and not a ballistic missile.
Would use ballistic missile technology because the launcher for a satellite and the launcher for a warhead are virtually identical.
Will we know fairly soon what what -- -- -- that in terms of the difference between.
And -- Russell -- book you know if they actually put a satellite into orbit we will know within two or three days.
Because will be able to track it other countries will be able to do the same thing so.
Pretty soon we will have a good sense of whether we're hearing music from space or whether this is just another ruse like it was in the past.
The fact that a -- Japan's standing by in the patriot missiles we've got South Korea on edge as well.
What could go wrong for example for those two countries to have to take a defensive posture.
What really could go wrong is that the missile goes off course it puts debris into Japan and we can't shoot it down because that then demonstrates that our missile defense technology is not good enough.
And I think that essentially we have a hard time shooting it down ourselves the Japanese were using our technology probably are going to have just -- difficult a time.
So -- I really hope that there's no debris because this is a real test and our military capabilities and instead of becoming a test of North Korea is -- -- that the United States why do you -- that we would have a hard time when it.
But because this is difficult technology because we don't know exactly when it's gonna launch we don't know trajectory.
All of these things are and -- miscalculations have to be done on the spot that you have to be able to then adjusts the interceptor.
This is extremely difficult for us to do especially -- our stage of development of missile defense.
And this is important because in four years or so the north Koreans will have a launcher that will be able to target most of the continental and United States.
And we won't have a defense for a -- coming out of space.
That really puts a premium on us to stop North Korea's missile program and we were doing a pretty poor job of it not only this administration but the one before.
What is this say about North Korea's.
On one hand saying that he wants to have been involved and talks to.
You know ensure that the world community on the same footing and to continue -- peaceful path and therefore you will receive.
Needed goods to help feed -- people on the other hand you have this.
Up front center with lots of hoopla around it and they're gonna do great you know presentation when knocked on the -- it launches -- Celebratory atmosphere that a lot of people are going to be forced to participate and Pete Carroll to wave -- as far as.
Well you know the important thing is that -- there's a new leader in North Korea and it was not wrong for the Obama administration trying to test its intentions by having come to an agreement.
Which it did called -- -- agreement because it was announced the last day of February.
On March 16 sixteen days later the north Koreans essentially.
Average -- -- that agreement by saying that they were gonna launch this satellite.
And so clearly the North Korean regime is not at a point where -- willing to deal with the United States.
Or the international community on a good faith basis so we should stop talking to these guys we need to start sanctioning them.
Really really tough.
And it's important for us to do that because the old tactics of negotiating with North Korea and we've been doing that since 1993.
May just hasn't worked.
Hasn't worked meanwhile as people continue to start.
Very sad but of course this a situation that continues to evolve and I -- -- gonna keep close watch on.
All the events as the ample particularly as we get closer to the missile -- thank you so much for joining us -- your insight as always we appreciate it thank you.
Let's send it for -- I just.
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