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Chris Stirewalt, Tad Devine and Gentry Collins discuss the importance of Ohio in the general election
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1960.
Back.
Internet was the last election in which the voters of Ohio did not.
Pick the winner of the presidential election at large and this is power play Internet.
I have a prediction that I can make for you.
Squint you can see into the future it's November 6.
I am sitting at the decision to ask.
And Megyn Kelly and Bret -- we'll have this question for me Chris how -- the numbers -- from Cuyahoga County yet.
Who's going to win Ohio it happens every time and there's a pretty good chance it'll happen this time we're gonna talk about Ohio where the president is campaigning today we're gonna talk about what's going on with public support for the Afghan war how that could change.
The course of the election will be talking to Jim McDermott congressman from Washington about that and that -- allies view Internet one Williams will be here later on two to do battle and have -- it will be a good time zone you have all of that to look forward to.
But wait no longer because we have -- actually really blockbuster -- political pros here.
You know gentry Collins Internet.
He is the former political director for the Republican National Committee.
He's from Iowa where they do a lot of stuff that has to do with politics.
And he is a principal -- chp public affairs a big -- are grassroots kind of front here in Washington.
But it is our great and decided pleasure to welcome to the dominant.
Internet political television show the 1130 half hour at divide.
You know him from his -- is a senior advisor to -- campaigns of both John Kerry and -- war.
Big time national democratic player and he is a democratic strategist now.
At the at the firm.
DeVine and multi.
Did I get that right guys -- you feel that I'm OK very good aren't so Ohio.
Let's just start with with -- test this premise.
Ohio has fewer electoral votes this year.
That any time since Andrew Jackson's election.
In 1828 -- population in the state has containing the growth of southern states has continued to strip electoral votes away from Ohio in recent cycles.
But it still got to be.
The most important swing state in the country let's test that theory and tablets are with you.
Well I think he's still very.
Court you know I think it's critically important -- -- because it's hard to figure out how it puts the other 270 electoral votes with a high right.
I think -- Obama has more roots to 270 frankly.
Because of the -- starts off with the in the places he can go up Weston and elsewhere.
But I think you know if you win Ohio you like the likelihood is gonna win the Election -- I think both sides and play all out Ohio ten are considering.
Gentry he said well I think we can start total agreement both sides are going to be all out of Ohio.
It is the -- -- critically important state.
Your right that there -- -- electoral votes but.
If you look at the -- person.
Reapportionment map generally my -- I predict precisely -- his salary electoral votes that as it moved from swing states in two.
As long as you do Republican states so so in terms of actually getting to seventy Ohio is as critical as it's ever been and Ohio is not in good shape for this president I know we'll talk about better the next few minutes but look unemployment underemployment.
-- and -- in Ohio.
But just -- notably nearly a third of all homes in Ohio have their mortgages underwater and youth unemployment the highest in the country.
And and that youth vote is precisely what drove the Obama victory there.
In 2008 he carried it by almost 21 margin.
So -- and 2000.
In 2008.
President Obama did very well in Ohio because he was able to basically marry together this three -- pools of votes in the state.
Which -- this suburban voters outside of Cleveland Columbus and Cincinnati.
And put those together with the democratic urban base.
And labor base did very well.
Those suburban voters.
-- to be more up for grabs this year at least at the outset Mitt Romney doing better there.
But I noticed that today the president is campaigning in the -- counting.
-- -- urea is blue blue I mean that's the blue as blue room that you can get in Ohio this is heavy union a very low median household income from at least folks already be on the team.
Well I think they are.
The team but I think the message that the president wants and other people is the policies that he's put in place are working for working for America I mean listen the unemployment rate in Ohio.
There's going down three points since we hadn't.
Percent of devastating losses in that state in the last election cycle and I think.
The president's message you know you -- energize the base of his own party which going to be critical to winning.
And he wants to send messages to people in the places you mentioned suburban swing voters particularly women -- -- a real advantage that his policies are better for them better for the future but for the families.
Okay now we're gonna talk more.
Later on about the challenge that Romney has with his base.
But let's explore this issue Mitt Romney doesn't have a real good chance to pick off Obama base voters does it seems unlikely that that.
That's well -- mr.
Romney is going to do very well in places like -- Leary Ohio willing.
Well I think that that the polling right now suggests that.
Both candidates do reasonably well third base.
I think the most recent poll had both candidates.
Winning more than 90% of their base voters.
I think the difference between 2012 and in 2008 is that there really are swing voters again right and they there -- primarily in the suburbs and excerpts.
Not in places like -- Ohio and I think that's probably where Ron is this likely to do to do well.
Okay now when we look at.
Ohio loses both very telling election that they had where there were two marvelous issues on the ballot to -- organization and attitudes.
One was a stringent repudiation.
Of the president's.
The mandate inside the president's health -- -- -- those stringent repudiation of the Republican governor's effort.
Two limit the powers of government worker unions.
And both succeeded in.
How divided is Ohio this cycle and how much of programs as it.
-- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- They're gonna just they make a determination probably must close the election about the president's policies are working and whether governor Romney represents too much of -- risk.
If we want to go back to policies that he's -- which are very much like the policies of President Bush had in place before.
So you know that's really where the voters are I think there's still waiting I think there's going to be anywhere from five to 10% of voters in Ohio.
Who wait and see I think the bases of both parties gonna come together behind their nominee and then we'll -- enough for the rest.
All right so gentry go to the question is.
In oh in Ohio.
The Republicans had a -- 2010 very successful they they picked -- half of the Republicans in the house Democrats gathered to you you know what I mean Internet.
I've picked -- path of the Democrats five -- ten Democrats lost -- picked Rob Portman as their senator by a wide margin -- did good guy who was in the Bush Administration -- a conservative Republican in the house from Cincinnati area.
But the numbers look less favorable now than the trend line has been moving the other direction for -- for your team in Ohio.
What is Romney need to do to get back some of that motion.
I don't know that it's clear that the trend line really has moved in the right direction if you look for example.
At the Gallup numbers right Gallup is tracking in Ohio already heavily with a five day role as governor Romney leading the state of Ohio by five points today he -- his -- -- -- -- his back right side up of course it took a big dip around the by the time of the that the march primarily.
I'm Republican road -- came to town I spent a couple million dollars a -- -- couldn't -- but -- back right side up.
President Obama's job approval instead of Ohio hovers -- forty -- 42%.
So -- that is a pretty good set of political circumstances for us.
To start with I would also point out you you mentioned these two -- that happened last year and it's true that it was a split decisions -- -- both parties -- talking.
But I would say I would city that is also true that Republicans were out organized unions really put everything they had to that effort and I -- precisely but it was several wanted to outspent.
Business interest on the army -- questions.
So with that kind of organization with that kind of turn -- the same turnout and -- the governor's.
Senate bill five a third of the number correctly on the very same day repudiated obamacare in all 88 -- in Ohio.
So I think Republicans started in have been pretty decent position I -- I certainly wouldn't -- for credit will be bitterly contested.
A mightily I think we're in better shape the world 2000 -- last work -- Well I think and 2010 count on was about 10% to 7% that's -- whether his presence probably know.
-- crap that you can't read more suspect in the.
