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Who will win the independent vote?

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    Dick Morris weighs in on which candidate will gather the most independents

  • Duration 5:20
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And -- segment tonight our pal Dick Morris has been studying the independent vote is very likely going to decide the presidential election November.

Rivera -- -- -- -- joins us out of Boynton beach Florida so what's the headline.

Well the headline is that the president of the United States when he runs for reelection.

Always.

Except one instance which which bush in 2004.

Loses.

All of the undecided vote.

And in fact usually for under performs what he's polling at.

-- in other words like in 1964 Lyndon -- was was running against Barry go war.

The last Gallup poll had Johnson 64% of the vote with two or three and decided.

All of the two or three went to Goldwater and Johnson only got 613.

Of his points went to go -- Of the last eight presidents that have sought reelection.

Seven.

Have lost the undecided vote seven.

The only one that's gained the undecided vote which bush in 2004.

And six of these of the eight president's not only lost the undecided vote.

The final vote turned out to be less than the final poll.

All right so the polls this week have it is a dead heat between.

Mr.

Obama and and mr.

Romney yeah.

Well and there enough undecided component in that polling and you say that the undecideds.

This year are probably gonna go as they have traditionally.

For the challenger not the incumbent that's what you're actually -- correct.

Well I'm saying two things yes that 89% of the undecided vote goes to the challenger.

And I'm also saying.

That -- Obama polls -- 45 can you say it's a 4545.

Race he's not only he's not gonna get 45 he's gonna get 43 or 44.

And this is not to be -- key -- here on offense a little bit different fourteen point blowout.

I think is a little bit different this year I'll tell you why -- on.

People have a lot of questions about Mitt Romney.

I think he's the most undefined challenger.

That I've seen in my lifetime we knew who George W.

Bush was.

We knew who Ronald Reagan -- is.

We knew who Bill Clinton wall -- don't really know who Mitt Romney it is.

So I I think that -- that uncertainty.

Not only from the Democrats and from people who are might be favorable toward Barack Obama but also from conservatives.

About really you know who this guy is in and how good a president he my -- -- even when the insurgent was discredited.

Tarred feathered and crucified.

Like Barry Goldwater and 64.

Like George McGovern in 72.

Like Jimmy Carter in 1980 I answered nineteen.

-- -- -- 76.

I even when the challenger woods -- I mean discredited stay with mom would Mondale McGovern and gold border.

-- even in those cases he got the end decided.

Okay well I like it now that's what I like are you with the analysis -- -- run went to the challenge absolutely dead there heavy odds are that if you aren't.

Sold on President Obama at this juncture.

All right you're probably not going to be sold on him because he's not gonna have anything new there are no new -- it's coming out that -- Not as you.

About it affects I think I think they forgot that one Obama took office we were spending three trillion dollars.

Now we're spending three point they -- they don't forget it but the party that has to coalesce around a message and that's what you get that's we got tonight.

The democratic messages that President Obama is a responsible cost Carter.

And understand in -- going I know that's what you're gonna put out there are.

That's what you're gonna see in the TV ads has legitimacy in the debates the president's gonna said I I'm responsible I wanna get this down and then you look at it to stats.

And the reason we use this GSA thing is because there is no more vivid example.

Of government waste the -- there is well you can't get a better one than this.

I think this isn't just one guy so a whole legions.

Whole agents it's even worse than what you're saying because what the GSA guts.

It's the entity that purchases for the government.

-- -- this is their definition of cost consciousness.

They buy stuff they charge rent they run the real estate that hired the cleaning personnel.

And if that's surge idea of cost containment.

Good got.

I just want to say one of the can build that your viewers would be interest and you've heard all this stuff about the gender gap how Romney's losing women and all of that.

The fact is that if you go back to the final election returns starting in 1996.

Every election there was more of the gender gap than there is right now in the polls.

Was it always toward the Democrats -- favorability in the hallway toward the Democrats -- Clinton had a fifteen point edge.

In gore had 815 point edge.

The Kerry had a thirteen point edge Obama.

One with twelve points more women -- -- the polling shares at twelve point gender gap it's not up it's down Anderson.

So check out the ad campaign on Dick Morris dot com.

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