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Time is ticking in Syria

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    Col. Cedric Leighton talks about Kofi Annan's deployment of UN observers in Syria

  • Duration 6:49
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This transcript is automatically generated

I wanna bring into the conversation now -- Cedric Blake -- -- samples retired.

And president of Cedric late associates were delighted to have you here in the studio -- it's good to be your job problem.

The point.

Just on Bahrain for the moment although the wider picture that Lehman was just making that this -- a lot of this is about Iran at some point you made many times.

Yes and are you doing is exactly right because what to Iran is trying to do is is trying to foment rebellion not only involved -- But they're also looking at the other Gulf Cooperation Council states and the big prize -- Iranians.

Is Saudi Arabia the eastern province of Saudi Arabia is a Shiite majority area that's also the rich history in terms of oil in Saudi Arabia and because of that.

That becomes the key area that the Iranians are going to be active in and of course geographically.

It's on the other side of what we call the Persian gulf and -- -- Arabian gulf.

And did so they could -- in essence create a little late for themselves if they had enough for rest -- populations.

In those areas that were beholden to the Iranian regime.

So this it for our viewers -- the -- this is eight.

A huge potential power play by Iran by Alice sworn enemy in the Middle East absolutely you know because you've got to the -- -- -- situation which is for them the low hanging fruit you have Saudi Arabia as a potential -- monarchy but there are certain institutional weaknesses in that state.

You have the gulf -- other Gulf Cooperation Council states like the United Arab Emirates -- which is of course a huge US ally.

-- and do so because of all of that.

You have a situation we -- Each and every one of those areas that the Iranians if the -- could destabilize those.

That then would wreak Havoc on US policy throughout the Middle East and potentially weaken the US not only in that region but around the world as well but let's.

Get to Syria in particular now this UN plan to send -- in that.

Up to 300 vote for now third C monitors peacekeepers whatever you call them.

It seems are totally pointless.

It is it is absolutely pointless because in order to be effective from a military standpoint.

You would in my estimation need at least.

101000 troops 101010.

Felony gonna send a maximum 300 -- he can do that you just can't do it and it doesn't mean that the 101000 are going to go and kick down doors and -- they have to.

Where does mean is that there will be a presence of visible presence in each of the areas such as homes Hamas is live.

And even Damascus.

Those are areas that become really really important.

If we are serious as the world.

In stopping the butchery that's going on in Syria if we're not serious then why should we even bother all right -- that we had this stuff friendships.

Area meeting we've had that we've had meetings it -- -- it was a meeting of foreign minister isn't.

In Paris yesterday I think it was one of he was -- the -- asking what's the resolution out of any of these meetings.

You know we getting anyway.

Not really I mean it's good that the world has come together in its.

Verbal condemnation of the Syrian regime.

But the problem is is there is no muscle behind it and the fact that there's no muscle behind it creates a real problem because as we've embittered mentioned.

The Syrian government can act with impunity as a result and they don't see any consequences to their bad behavior.

If they saw consequences to their bad behavior that would be a totally different issue and then -- would see a reduction in eventual reduction in the.

That's the one -- what consequences.

Can that be.

Short of military action because nobody has seems to have the stomach for that.

Right and -- that's the problem you know you compare Libya and Syria -- -- people were willing to go into -- it was easier quite frankly to do from a logistical standpoint from a military standpoint.

In terms of you what can we do -- But well we're not gonna go with a military -- we're looking at a protracted standoff.

But -- sanctions route is probably the most the most feasible another possibility is a naval blockade of Syria and again that's a military option.

But that is the could have -- -- the -- exactly boots on the ground and a third possibility.

It would be a no fly zone.

I that would then involved if you did it right for Syria would involve all of the major parts of the country such as Damascus the western -- fine basically.

That would be the area that -- that we should look at.

But the big risks risks -- -- purely because they were Syria has some pretty good at defenses it has some pretty good air defenses some very good air defenses however the only big old become you know from the Soviet.

Era and we've been built up in in some ways since that time there's somewhat similar to the -- -- defense of Saddam Hussein.

One of our -- is here metal chef asking -- what do you in terms of -- what of weapons of mass destruction if any do we know that it happened.

We don't have a complete picture on that but what we do know is that fear and is the possibility of chemical weapons in Syria.

There was also a lot of movement from Iraq in the age of Saddam Hussein justice he was losing power during -- Operation Iraqi Freedom the first stage of that.

Lot of movement from Iraq into Syria we don't know if there were chemical weapons from Iraq that went to Syria as a result of that.

The Syrians they are thought to have their own story of of chemical weapons there's also possibility of biological weapons and of course we all know that they were working on nuclear.

Program until the Israelis -- -- in 2007.

Right need and a couple of he was weighing in on Iran arrived -- Francis says that look we really do to stop Iran I don't see how we can -- -- stop them.

Without boots on the grand Sara west says this is all one more reason to do something about Iran and do it now in all -- case -- she says.

And you've said that this is this is one of the at -- Sort of opportunities of Syria if you like if we tackle Syria we can punch a big hole they were on the strength -- -- so.

Exactly and and the reason is it's it's basically -- -- is a vulnerable player right now.

Syria has been an Iranian ally since at least the early 1980s.

And it because of that there's also religious connection that it yellow lights being she Iran being Shia.

A deal if you take away this Syria ends.

That then.

Leaves Iran basically friend was in the Arab world.

And what that means is it it cuts them off from Hamas -- cuts them off from Hezbollah.

And cuts them off also from an arms conduits that they use on occasion to take arms from Russia.

Into Syria that sometimes end up in Iran.

You know there were other times it goes the other way but Syria would be a huge blow to Iran's prestige and that's why it's very important to do something against Syria.

And then basically what you do is you strangle.

The Iranian regime.

By surrounding it by encircling it and that's without going boots on the ground and that's that's the idea.

All right so Iran as ever the key is so much of this all right colonel -- late new examples retired.

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