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Go to New York City.
While tonight we're gonna take a look at the presidential election in a very different way.
We're not gonna focus so much on -- -- change every week we'll be focusing on the big issues in the factors that will decide the race in November.
Barack Obama made history for years ago when he was elected the first African American president having campaigned on the platform.
Of hope and change.
Now many people are hoping there is a change.
But what are the factors that would cause an incumbent president to lose a bid for re election.
In the past forty years Gerald Ford Jimmy Carter George H.
Bush have all lost their reelection bids.
But Richard Nixon Ronald Reagan Bill Clinton and George W.
Bush were re election.
Now we learn something from those elections and we also find out that in order for Barack Obama to get a second term.
He has to win in certain districts when a few key states win over voters of special interest in specific demographic groups.
And then he's got to convince Americans that he's both likable and competent.
An election involving an incumbent is ultimately a referendum on the incumbent.
And the Republican doesn't have to win.
He just have to make sure that the Democrat loses.
How could President Obama.
Keep from being a one term president.
Well he's got to keep a solid lead with -- women's which Democrats typically do.
But his lead is not as solid as it was four years ago.
He currently trails Mitt Romney -- polls as to who would be best to handle the economy which is the main issue concerning voters.
And in key states that he won four years ago now appear to be likely states that he could lose this -- such as Indiana Florida Ohio.
Nevada Virginia and North Carolina.
By the way that's where he's gonna travel for his coronation.
I mean nomination.
That's where the Democrats will have a national convention.
Now while President Obama is likely to win the younger vote.
That vote so far appears to be far more tepid than before especially in light a bad job numbers.
And the loss of optimism a young among younger voters.
Obama still leads in the like -- factor.
But worries over economic issues are now beginning to outweigh the love issue among recently poll voters bottom line.
This election shapes up to be a colossal battle that is gonna go right to the wire tonight we're.
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