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Is the presidential race dead even?

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    Panel discusses what favorability ratings mean for the candidates

  • Duration 9:42
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Good morning welcome to campaign insiders at a new time every Monday at 1030 East Coast time.

Will be starting the week off with you to review where we're -- in the presidential race and the congressional races so.

I'm John affiliate along with mr.

Pat Caddell and doctor -- -- thank you.

-- -- -- -- And on three of us of the campaign insiders and we try to give honest dispassionate analysis of what's going on in the political campaigns so here we are Monday morning.

Tomorrow would have been the Pennsylvania primary still lives but Romney is the nominee clearly.

The president has just gotten enough delegates to be the democratic nominee.

And the media is putting out all these polls that say the -- is about city but is it.

Well.

I think it is but the more interesting question is why is it even what does it mean.

And my sense is that with.

The governor having a negative.

Favorability what -- yesterday acknowledges underwater.

And with Romney not having articulating.

A message.

There is a parallel with -- -- talk about to 1980.

At the same time that Obama's approval ratings on the economy plummet.

-- I think did you know there's been a lot of discussion me because I'm so old I go back there was an election.

But there's a lot of everyone keeps wanna say this is like 2004.

When bush was incumbent it's a very different situation.

Bush was to have something very positive going -- on foreign policy almost quit after 9/11 the war almost.

-- so he had something to run from.

In 1980 Carter President Carter -- work forwards but it was damaged by.

A -- economy the hostages being held a lot of things and -- -- primary.

And worst problem that we had was in that way and we kept it very -- -- variant.

Was that we did not have a message for the future -- what is his term but why is this going to be different.

I look at Obama and I get the sense that his campaign is ignored the fact that the world existed before 2000.

And that they're repeating the same mistake.

They don't simply thinking we're gonna -- -- opponent is we tried to do with Reagan.

And make that -- make any choice selection and all for nothing for the vision for the future.

The economy is driving this election close.

And I think -- even though I don't believe over that Romney is electorally in good shape could be that close.

At the moment but it is it is a situation that has developed.

And we can -- happily say that when you were in the White House and 1980 heroically trying to save your president.

Doug and I were working together on my campaign that congressional candidate in Queens and Nassau County.

Now we go back to 1980s we had double digit inflation double digit unemployment and interest rates statistically.

The economy if you go back looks worse much -- this that I look I don't know but it wasn't enough the mood in America -- I went door to door.

Six nights a week for eight months and you go to people's houses they were sour but this is much force that polluted and there compliments.

Probably do we've got years of having a confidence problem and we've seen this now for three years in a -- if in fact -- seems to be developing does.

Which is in 2000 and in ten and 2011.

We have quote remember Green sprouts in 2010.

A recovery in 2011.

In the spring all of which petered out.

And we -- have a higher unemployment do the recovery didn't work.

Did develop and I think we may be on that same pattern if it is it puts it prices.

The last month -- felt like it did a year ago right.

When we had these good signs and then boom bad job and I don't remember what happened we talked about this when I when I remember.

I remember one of our first show.

On on the on on on on when we were campaign confidential.

I said that.

I thought that we have had a breakdown basically the country it's -- when the unemployment rate went back off.

And for the summer Obama's numbers for then for the -- tank -- crazy.

And now they've come back somewhat the Republicans have helped him but if we get that same pattern and I think what we're seeing is some anticipation of that.

Then the the White House is in more trouble than than than many of the experts say -- look -- -- right now I mean.

I think it is right the way I would put it is not so much that the country is snapped blog and now -- I don't know that you could put that it's broken.

And that people are so.

This -- is snapped and yes states that people would just so discouraged.

And so fearful.

That it's not like they or pounding the table and right there just.

Frustrated.

And unnerved.

And -- easy on a daily well.

And into that point look at the lack of enthusiast.

-- -- -- voting turnout and also the level of enthusiasm is relatively low compared to other years even though people believe this is a critical election.

There were on the precipice a -- a -- you probably great moment of potential decline in America you would have thought the country to be galvanizing.

And it's getting election that it doesn't want and it's reacting to that.

-- the the thing that I am still wrestling with -- the Republicans are the ones who really think it's a crucial election.

You wouldn't know -- from their campaign you who want.

But you wouldn't know it from their turn -- not the independents who were allowed to vote for Democrats in Republican primaries they voted this year because -- was -- democratic primary.

But on the actual were registered Republican turn out other than South Carolina was down I believe in every single Republican primary now.

Why aren't they coming out to vote nobody's talking about the huge job.

I think it's appointed Mitch Daniels made.

Being the only -- you -- -- that's a good point I think we should and we put that quote up on the screen earlier last week governor Mitch Daniels who toyed with running.

Very won't respect a guy across the aisle politically.

Republican governor of Indiana could obviously did not and other -- for resolution or vote.

-- we we should put up the quote first it we have you have to.

Campaign to govern not just one look at everything through the lens of folks who have yet to achieve.

Romney doesn't talk that way -- this.

Was a rather strong critique of the Republican nominee running from -- Republican governor who's very well respected on the right and in the middle path.

Well as we saw yesterday on the home when he was on fought so Sunday would -- -- he backed off just a little bit but not really.

I mean he tried to.

Sugar -- -- much -- he could for Romney.

But he still made this endless -- even said -- and we'll come back to Mitch -- -- -- -- on FOX News Sunday yesterday morning.

What did you mean when you said -- doesn't talked out why.

I'm just saying that that he he's got the right prescription for America.

He's he's meeting the objective that -- hoped our party would need to offering specific positive constructive.

-- and remedies for our debt problem and are slow growth problem.

But as things go along I just want to encourage him to express these very same principles more often from the standpoint of the young the poor.

Those who have yet to -- start up the -- of life.

I right now by the late governor Daniels very good politician and a good person.

Comes from a camp on the right.

Jack -- used to -- used to say we're bleeding -- conservatives.

We believe in conservatism as the way to revive.

Everyone in the country not just to help the rich you can't say.

What is the prescription that Mitt Romney is proposing what is it.

He's worries that it doesn't care about the -- He's not -- -- -- that really hurts them politically it's not just among -- or -- -- among independents and moderates.

You hear about -- well he said in Paris he said that in.

-- -- compensate them but it didn't matter really came across when you say -- got to -- is that I don't care about right for that I have a say they have added if there's all of us say it's never did so many statements of -- -- is considered politically unbelievable.

But the larger point is he doesn't connect with voters the danger for him as a candidate the reason he's -- underwater in favorability.

Is because he does not connected particularly with the working class white working class -- -- Anyway and and and and women and others who I've got real problem -- And he doesn't make a connection them.

And if he is in what didn't and -- Daniels has been all of this if I've said it before on the show when we've all discussed it.

You see the union response that very different than Barbara was a was a home run compared to what those usually are because you talk about this but in the statement -- In the interview when he talked but we need to be constructed.

You -- you need to make an urgent he was talking about the urgency election he's talked about about the crisis of -- Bob big stakes but this view of you have to have empathy -- -- said yesterday.

It is in the in the if Romney doesn't Republicans and Republicans on the right don't seem to understand that having empathy and -- -- thing.

-- a Clinton leadership convention all laps and from the Republican camp.

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