What are the swing states in 2012 race?
Political expert Larry Sabato weighs in
- Duration 4:19
- Date Apr 26, 2012
Political expert Larry Sabato weighs in
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-- -- about the swing state battle in the race for the White House says President Obama and the presumptive GOP nominee Mitt Romney.
Get ready to map out their strategies for winning these all important -- according to our next guest there are seven this year.
Nevada Colorado Iowa.
New Hampshire Virginia and Florida.
All of them covered colored blue on the map because all of them went to President Obama in 2008.
But they are real toss ups.
This time around.
-- 70 is the director of the center for politics at the University of Virginia he's been gazing into his crystal ball.
You say that President Obama set sort of a high water mark for Democrats modern Democrats when he won the 2000 election.
Is he going to get that many this time around.
No I I would I would bet -- the crystal ball says no John look he's already lost.
Actually just from the census.
He's down to 359.
Simply because democratic states lost electoral votes to Republican states.
Because of the reapportionment that occurred after the census -- -- -- him.
All right so let's take a look at those states -- New Hampshire is a prominent political state primarily because of its early primary.
But this time around New Hampshire and it's.
Four electoral votes I mean a very small number.
Is going to be seeing all kinds of visits from the presidential candidates I have a field.
Absolutely it is one of the great swing states even though it only has four electoral votes -- for electoral votes can be an election.
As we found out in that 2000 race between George Bush.
And Al Gore.
And look here's an -- scenario for you John and we're gonna talk about a hundred scenarios between now and November.
But suppose Barack Obama President Obama.
Winds just the states where he did better then his average of about 53%.
Guess how many electoral votes he has 272.
Just two more than needed to win well if you -- New Hampshire is in that group.
If you take New Hampshire away he gets to 68.
Romney gets to seventy that's the election.
So even New Hampshire with just four electoral votes could end up being the pivot point of the election.
Usually Ohio is the state that sort of determines.
Which man which party wins the presidency.
You say this year it could be a different state walk.
Well I'm I'm a little biased I'm a native Virginian but I think Virginia.
Bids fair to be as important maybe more important than Ohio if you look at the map and you determine.
That this is going to be a close competitive election as most believe in April that's the conventional wisdom in April.
Then you look to a state that is.
Clearly balance between the two parties well in 2008.
Virginia of the fifty states was the closest to the national picture of the national average vote.
For both Barack Obama and John McCain.
If that continues it would suggest that Virginia could be.
The pivot point again not New Hampshire but Virginia is not Ohio but Virginia is that as I said we have a lot of scenarios and it will have plenty of time.
To play them all out.
Before the election's over and I think last time I talk to you we talked about who might be a vice presidential pick is that why a certain governor of the commonwealth of Virginia Bob McDonnell.
Is being talked about as a potential vice president.
Absolutely I think that's why Bob McDonnell's being discussed in Virginia.
And if you if you go by the historical record with Ohio being right 27 of the last 29 times.
You consider senator Rob Portman.
And those two names are mentioned -- -- along with senator Marco Rubio from Florida another really important super swing state.
With the bonus of 29 electoral votes as opposed to Ohio's eighteen.
And Virginia just test thirteen it will be fascinating thanks for watching it with this Larry 70 we'll check in with the -- him.