Disappointing economic reports ignite new recession fears
Home prices sinking, durable goods orders falling
- Duration 8:14
- Date Apr 28, 2012
Home prices sinking, durable goods orders falling
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The economy disappointing.
Growing less than expected this year.
And jobless benefits this month rising orders -- long lasting goods plunging home prices still sinking.
Small investors yanking cash out of US stocks.
Now 83% of Americans saying we're still in a recession are they right.
Hi everyone I'm Brenda -- this is bull and bear.
Bulls and -- this week Tobin Smith Jonas Max Ferris along with Gary outbound John tobacco.
And Steve Murphy welcome -- everybody okay John forget new recession fears are we still is terrorists action.
Friend of course we're still in a recession if not approaching.
A depression when we start talking about eight 3% of Americans are recognizing that we might be in a recession.
I think that number is low I think that when you look at all the statistics there are out -- The home new home starts full closures are up mutual's one fund outflows are up.
Everything that you would think of as a good economic metric is going in the wrong direction.
And people are still talking about Green shoots in positive developments and I don't see any of it.
Well it's Steve we still are growing as an economy I mean it may not be as fast as everybody would hope for but 2.2 percent that's not anything to sneeze at -- Absolutely and it projections this year were for 2.5 percent.
You know it's one quarter.
But it does feel -- most people like we're in a recession and will continue to feel that way until the economy gets back to where was before 2000 and -- especially before.
They Wall Street financial collapse.
Drag right now on the economy.
Is the housing market we need to do something about those fifteen million Americans.
-- are underwater on her home on mortgages.
And they're current on their payments.
In -- we can do something about reducing their capital and helping them get out from under that burden that was cause but none of their own doing.
Then we got there we got a big problem and I went way I would do -- I would I -- -- down.
For homeowners whose mortgages are under 500000 dollars -- his face real quickly here.
Did 50000 dollars of the capital not often have Wall Street pay for it by renewing a transaction.
Tell me in Paris -- and -- -- Well we are recession because 83% of people Saturday in -- just point it goes -- a psychology issue here.
What you know regardless of how we define a recession or expansion -- if we have that many.
People still got -- -- that psychologically that's what happens that's what we're seeing we're seeing people.
Populace are hoarding cash not taking risk slowing down all those things that you associate with with a recession now forget about spending is like ice it's been any hair welcome because -- it -- so did for depressed and had a spring back but what you're seeing is is that you -- -- at that point at the margin where people are not saying yeah I'm gonna take that extra -- I'm gonna buy that extra thing they're doing the reverse so the best -- -- saying.
Look what it and and economic headed off this house and we need to -- people out of their house but but with it's going to take a long time.
No one should have ever expected that we're going to be back -- 2007 because 2000 economy seven was BS it was 40% a home prices and mortgages everything else we don't wanna go back to 2000.
But -- -- is the point though are people I don't realistically.
Using the wrong yardstick and thinking.
You know it should feel like it did.
In the ball home -- people worked flipping houses and yet you know their houses as an eight yeah and now we don't have -- so we're in a recession.
You're these feelings although throw in these points the guests are bringing opera actor and they are not and anything you do of the recession the economy is unlike with the other guys as it is bigger than it was before the 07 -- -- real estate.
If you can't have a recession if you're economies bigger than it was a year ago and it's -- it's impossible to -- the term as a definition we're not shrinking the UK isn't a recession.
Their economy stricken most of Europe is in a recession or close to it America's not now we don't.
He's as good as we did back in both when the housing prices are probably at all -- -- -- to learn and on -- really low.
But that's how the definition of recession -- Just probably.
Very definite yeah.
Let me now OK but yet they still that ambition is to him that you -- quarters have been negative GDP but let's let's not get into that right now -- Gary play.
And people feel they're in a recession when they don't have a job -- they're worried about losing their jobs and employment still about 8%.
Look there first off we're not a depression when not a recession the numbers are okay than nothing great.
But as you said which -- eight point 3% unemployment.
Where than the normal we use the -- 5% the other party equation.
There are millions and millions of people that have been taken out of the labor force not being counted anymore these are the people that are feeling -- the most.
These people are being asked the question arbiter section and they are in a recession so it's based on an individual basis and the other portico -- -- promised.
Did total number jobs out there is much less than they used to when I'm told that changes the feeling out there is gonna remain the same 83% think we're still in the -- We're actually -- that eight point two but eight -- -- you know a hybrid club it's still stubbornly above.
But the -- really nineteen the idea.
-- got to look at that you look editor of -- -- -- and get out the definition of recession used to be if you need -- lost his job and depression is if you lost your job.
A lot to -- close psychologically.
Steve let's get back to that this whole psychological.
Issue how people.
Feel doesn't it come down -- that.
It does and as one of the guests pointed out it's mostly the lost a home equity than that we got 50% of the middle class in this country 50% of people in the country.
All middle class all people working who are living from paycheck to paycheck we've got to get beyond that we've got to do something about the housing crisis.
About -- the whole idea we have to do something sounds to me like somehow we're gonna pass legislation.
That says that we're gonna we're gonna bail people out -- we're gonna not allow the -- we gradually that's what we should do -- terrible plot.
Okay I don't like dynamite Clark I -- that's out of my car now.
And I -- we OK let let's not like now when we brought a lot incredible incentives.
For owning a home John.
This whole issue of being in a recession or not in a recession how long do you think we're going to.
Feel this why.
Why think when you when you look at regular people and -- -- ask your regular people like small business owners like myself this gonna be worried about.
Rising oil prices and the potential of rising taxes rising health care cost.
And what we really need to do to get that is depression or recession whatever you want to call it is thought getting people jobs and small business -- up -- with the fear of uncertainty right now.
What is Obama gonna do what do the Ferrell policy's gonna do and no one wants to spend a single penny to potentially grow their business or employed people when this get the death.
-- there are some positives out there we are seeing gas prices starting.
To come down we are seeing seeing still growth that is positive.
That you know there are some positives in the economy -- against -- -- other people and you're over your gas prices are cheaper now.
But I think it's not gonna go -- -- your your point in tall enough time goes by that it's like a foggy memory what it was like when you had just.
Creating wealth to your home it's it's we're not gonna -- -- -- -- fibers and employment for many years.
You know obviously homes adjusting for inflation ever hit their old sheet that was a bubble and got to get out of your head -- nearly three to five years from now but that adapt -- it wasn't so -- no word I don't feel like we're in a recession but right now it's more recent enough where it's gonna feel bad even -- that never happened you wouldn't be so bad today.
You have to factor another thing also -- and that's sixteen trillion dollars in debt and counting.
People see this people know this and they also know they're the ones going to be paying for it.
And that's where the worry comes from why they think things are gonna stay down and yeah.
Get these big god numbers of the 83%.
And I told the debt starts coming down and somebody feels better about that I think you -- all things together and the feelings evolved over main bad.
Okay that's got to be at last word thanks guys.