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Is the 2012 race as close as we think?

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    Who's ahead now and can it change?

  • Duration 6:04
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For the winner of the White House must reach the magic number of 270 electoral votes and if the election were held today Mitt Romney would be in trouble take a look at this electoral map.

Made by real clear politics dot com based on current polling the president would -- 227.

Votes compared to Mitt Romney's a 170.

See the yellow.

And I wanna point out three yellow states -- -- big battleground states those those are too close to call you see Florida you see Ohio UC Pennsylvania.

And there are several others but they don't have as many electoral -- The red is obviously republic the pink is sort of leaning Republican the light blue leaning Democrat the dark blue and -- -- California with.

I can't see but I think it's what you 5855.

Electoral votes that's the granddaddy prize of a mall.

Pot is solidly blue let's bring in our political panel.

Campaign insiders Doug Shawn Hackett hill and John that -- the -- Well gentlemen what do you think -- electoral now.

Congressman strong here if you've got enough for -- this real clear politics thing is -- -- and did last week the polling from state by state.

And putting leaders and a little bit -- Romney has a -- way to go got more states he's got to catch up then there's the map again.

Number one on the map as Ohio you mentioned -- Republicans have to win Ohio to get to 270 generally.

And -- he's behind by six points and Ohio it's not the end of the world but he's got work to do there.

-- -- You you know what's interesting is so many of these states are now in the -- one arm out.

Three or four months ago word against Obama.

Some of the states he's Levy and they were against.

Obama has had progress in the states.

The problem with for Romney is you've got to win almost all those states in yellow it's got to win Florida and he's got is cannot lose Virginia and North Carolina -- Koppel walk.

-- -- as we said last week he.

He's he's won those states in primaries and and he's come out of -- war unpopular in -- -- and out the other thing is Obama has had a huge head start in terms of grassroots organizing.

In each of these states even if that's only -- a couple points in a very close race that could make a difference one other point.

The job growth in those swing states usually heavily taxed states has been slower than the rest of the country.

That will inevitably be drag on the Obama vote.

Not enough to make it decisive difference in a wide race but a close race -- could make all the Democrats the bad.

News for the present this week.

When you receive the Wall Street Journal yesterday -- a front page -- analysis.

Of all the indications of the economy slowing Greg we've talked about tonight in the show.

If we have the same -- -- meet this case.

We all have the we have the same.

The phenomena we had the last few years for the full spring when the economy slows so -- unemployment goes up in the president's campaign.

Strikes me that if you step back from the substance of it there is an error of desperation to it because they're frantically going to -- this -- that.

And while they have been able to get to salvage the pump more oil that's why we believe it on gas prices is down there's only so much they can control -- There were they don't have a narrative either great to be fair.

They don't have a plan for dealing with economic uncertainty or economic weakness in the same way the Romney lacks a plan to.

And -- -- GDP slowed down to 2.2 percent the first quarter first time unemployment claims were flat on the week.

Things should be trending great -- -- bring back and a double dip recession which is could be a precursor for us we were you know there's big problems what and what not what should the candidates do in the week ahead.

-- but.

Obama needs to get out there and had a narrative.

For his reelection -- I've sort of called him -- political short order cook and he'll offer incentives to this young people old people women.

That's not gonna win an election that's as close as this one we need the narrative that answers a question -- that hasn't been addressed at all.

What is the president gonna do in this second term we don't have an answer.

He's going to Virginia and Ohio I think that what you're doing every you know this is finally -- I don't wanna say this finally the Republicans blew the whistle screaming.

Now he's gonna start paying for these campaign period that the taxpayers would pay for it been so blatant.

But he's going to these swing states but that still doesn't solve the marital problem cannot go and promises group in this group and attack another.

He is the president the issue is how -- second term be -- different the first term.

I wanna -- one more thing how does a VP choice -- into this because when you look at those swing states let's assume they stayed.

The swing battleground states Florida Ohio Pennsylvania places like that he could pick a candidate Santorum in Pennsylvania.

I don't -- -- Ohio.

And Florida rubio.

While companies.

Dog and I believe it's gonna pick in the end after a lot of leaking and trying people out there is gonna pick senator Rob Portman of Ohio.

Fits the Romney mold.

Pat doesn't like the small but it's a conservative.

-- play it safe strategy knows all risk no.

Real problems with credentials who possess it now you've got to be behind me is once what on the campaign had this -- their diplomas.

You dare to be cautious.

We don't know this is the Romney's campaign -- of the calendar I'm sorry that's giving away the ball game now he needs much more.

Attractive helped me I think he he doesn't have to go to Sarah Palin.

I'm gonna say remember the last time they I don't put the -- that middle ground there here is that rubio.

Well yeah raise some of the same problems Sara Allen had had Heidi and of course the main problems what you don't want in the end the vice president -- do anything this guy's got to go Perry campaign insiders as always thank you so much thank you can get more from.

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