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Where do Obama, Romney stand in swing states?

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    A look at latest poll numbers

  • Duration 3:59
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Right now there are some brand new presidential polls out of three closely watched swing states and they show the race tightening.

In Florida and Ohio between President Obama and Mitt Romney a statistical dead heat and both those battleground states right now meanwhile in Pennsylvania.

President Obama has an edge at this point over the presumptive GOP nominee joining us now Larry -- -- -- director of the center for politics at the university.

A Virginia good to see you this morning.

Up first of all -- you know if you look closely at these numbers.

Focusing on Ohio and Florida if the race were held today to close to call what does this tell.

Well it tells me that the races where it ought to be given the electoral conditions that are prevailing.

You know here's I have a little -- test myself I ask myself does this whole match electoral history.

And does it make sense.

These polls in Florida Ohio and Pennsylvania.

Match electoral history and they make sense.

President Obama is ahead in Pennsylvania.

It's -- it's voted democratic the last five presidential elections Obama carried it easily in 2008.

But look it -- look at Ohio and Florida.

If Mitt Romney is going to win it if this is going to be a close competitive race frankly he ought to -- Florida.

-- might carry Ohio it's going to be a very close race in a while.

That matches the results in 2008 actually it was a close race in Florida it was a close race in Ohio in 2008.

You know there is another element in this polling that we should look at today and it has to do with the economy if you can put some words up on the screen now.

When you look at how voters say they feel about the economy and who could do a better job on that for instance an Ohio.

Mitt Romney wins this and that's outside the statistical margin we're seeing something similar and Florida.

And if we can take a look at fastow Mitt Romney what is what is resonating.

From Mitt Romney right now that isn't coming from this president and I want to throw -- Larry the fact that.

Unemployment numbers showing that 27000 people have come off the benefits rolls there are many different reasons why that could happen perhaps though the administration would spin that and a good way.

But look at what's happening in Ohio and Florida.

Yes and look that is the significant question because.

While we made -- get off the interstate and on to -- little dirt road and talk about this issue and that issue in this gap and that controversy.

This is an election about the economy.

To the extent that people believe that Mitt Romney will do a better job on the economy he's likely to win.

Right now in Florida and Ohio and -- day.

But right now in Florida and Ohio Romney is doing very well on that measure that's a positive sign for him the president has to hope that the economy.

Continues improving to the point where people believe.

That it's going to be better in -- -- his second term that it wasn't -- -- So it's it's less about what's happening actually on the ground today it's more about what people's perceptions of the future will be a couple things before -- let you go.

When you look at Pennsylvania where the president is -- just doing better he's actually picked picked up speed you say traditionally a Democrat would win there.

But there is if you -- deep inside this -- some mention of a get a gender gap and that Mitt Romney isn't polling well with the women particularly in that state what's happening.

Yes in that state and frankly here's I see this in a lot of states around the country.

You've got a traditional gender gap I would bet anybody right now at all today that on November 6 Mitt Romney will carry -- and and Barack Obama mobile -- Wellman.

The question is what's the margin.

Women are about 52 and a half percent of the electorate so you'd much rather be doing well with women.

But it matters he would carry them by just two with three points fortieth -- -- by ten or twelve and the same on the other side with men for Mitt Romney.

All right Larry thank you very much for breaking it down for.

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