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Swing State Tie

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    Chris Stirewalt, Penny Lee, Doug Schoen and Alice Stewart discuss tightening polls in swing states.

  • Duration 8:59
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Two little points.

That is all that separates President Obama -- Mitt Romney in the latest.

USA today Gallup poll of the twelve swing states that will decide this bag on election.

And it's into the gap -- shrunk from nine points in late march to just two points now.

And this is our -- and let me tell you something.

This -- -- -- this race is a dead heat as we get into the full swing of the general election.

And the folks in these battleground states seem to be.

Thinking that Mitt Romney may be pretty good choice.

In these recent weeks having survived.

The helping us talk about that of course will be Alice Stewart -- -- lead who you're lucky to have -- and that.

You know -- -- you're lucky to have is Doug -- You're lucky to have -- show with his own show here on the Internet.

You were lucky to have Doug -- a former Clinton pollster democratic pollster and a guy who knows a lot about how you get that.

That was decided -- persuade bullets there in the middle brother -- well.

Thanks so much press.

Okay so they're just give us your top line on this poll what's your take away.

Well -- what you said is exactly right the race is a statistical tie.

Bottom line Obama is perceived as more likable Romney more effective on the economy.

And I guess the other point we might want to get into this Chris when you look at the Electoral College.

He Obama despite the fact that the -- is -- time has a clear and demonstrable advantage.

Well then and we can talk about that I want to show these polls that you just mentioned such as we could see Obama verses Romney -- like ability.

Obama 58.

Romney 31 that's less.

Obama vs Romney on the economy.

Obama 52.

-- sixty so that's that's a pretty clear advantage.

Doug and it also means that if Romney's got a 60% score there that means that there are some people who said they gonna be voting for.

Obama who think Romney would do a good job on the economy right.

Absolutely.

And really the way I read those is.

While the like ability differences -- 27 points.

Ultimately at -- time of real national.

Economic crisis here if I can say that.

People put a greater stock in the economy than they do and who they like or who they think is.

Better able to understand the problems.

So now let's talk very briefly about this how you see the electoral map shaping up now it's been much discussed it.

Romney has a -- half the phrase narrow -- has now been tattooed to Mitt Romney's forehead.

But doesn't the president have a pretty narrow path to.

Well according to real clear politics now about 253.

Electoral.

Votes for the president and democratic or Democrat leaning states 270.

For governor Romney.

The either I think they're about and -- and swing states out there.

And the president would need eighteen electoral votes now it's.

The voter trends that evidence themselves.

In 2010.

Return in 2012 it will be as you say a narrow path but for example the president just wins Ohio.

That would be -- it's eighteen electoral votes enough to put him over the top.

And I expect that whomever if any can if either of the two of them wins both Ohio and Florida.

It's it's game set match I think that's a good -- Chris okay Doug -- the Internet it is grateful to you I am grateful to you we thank you for making time president always -- -- show we would let her show before you go.

Just campaign insiders it's on Sunday -- FNC in about 525.

And for the Internet.

1030 Monday's.

Right before.

Power play so we try to won them up for you Chris hopefully we do -- job.

You Smart enough so we can dumbed down -- I don't appreciate it out of debt.

I think about.

It's okay we're just look we're just we're just here trying to get along and you guys every minute.

Trying to get -- we're just trying to get by and that that is enough -- -- talked about that let me let me I want to test my thesis.

In reelection campaigns.

History tells us this.

Either the beat incumbent can convince people that he's the guy you may not be thrilled with everything but.

Come about September there isn't a moment of decision that happens when people who are political junkies tune into the process and they say yes -- -- Doesn't the possibility people talk about Nero path.

For Romney doesn't possibilities -- that you can see here what you saw in 92 or 1980 where people just say enough of this guy the other guys seem plausible enough let's go with them heading.

If you need just isn't it because you -- that's exactly what happens is that people take their you know they don't sit down with him preach this every day right into something that's gonna happen is -- -- gonna happen in June July is the Olympics.

It really is -- -- be if you take -- I'm well and artillery it's going to be hard to penetrate with political listening -- this time usually an incumbent president that's.

That's truly define their colony and very high -- -- they have more money on their side of this bulletin.

He sure does and -- well he doesn't he does on his own campaign -- -- on the super -- I made -- -- -- -- know.

-- -- With money and -- it goes straight negative and a nine you know President Obama every single day so.

It's gonna be interesting thing to see kind of who -- an -- attention that is -- kind of in the later parts.

I'll be so that is wanting ground game and that's what this social media and there's so all of the other ways in which are going to be trying to sneaky because I think the fairways are -- -- -- Taken up by the Olympics and indeed -- Mitt Romney's going to go over that there's going to be interesting dynamic there's so it's it's it's really can be penetrated in these key battlegrounds -- in the heat constituents.

And you've got enthusiast level -- -- out how large tree effect this alleged plot thing.

Our biggest effect right up.

Tuesday typically the kick presidential campaign -- -- take a little -- in the summertime he's right.

-- that was certainly taken our attention away back.

But what we're going to see as you said the campaigns -- rebuilding of the infrastructure and organization in the ground game and especially that key swing states nine in particular.

I -- things will ratchet up as we get close to the convention that will add new enthusiasm and energy to the Republican Party -- as -- -- -- VP nominee.

Things -- ratchet up significantly.

But what the key as -- disaffected Democrats and independents are going to be.

Influential and in very a big factor in the selection -- so the candidates will be focusing a lot of their attention.

-- -- Really in those those -- going to be critical of the selection that was split core will be key as being closer to November is where's the economy was the unemployment rate at this time.

They currently -- Twenty million Americans out of work unemployment above 8% for the longest period in recorded history median household income down 4000 dollars and homes foreclosed double the price of gasoline -- if things continue along that trend.

People don't like President Obama all they want but they're gonna vote from -- any.

To fix any 2004.

John Kerry was almost exactly the same place where Mitt Romney is in the polls have saturated -- As the race gets under way people were dissatisfied with the Iraq War particularly.

But we're generally -- the end rapture about the direction of the country.

And then as you said he was he got defined.

And he was made into this that it is -- and even.

It was -- very the key French voted but he was he was turned into an unacceptable alternative.

And helps -- that cause several times on his own.

But four Romney.

Basically is in the name of the game for him just remain an acceptable alternative.

Just prosecute Obama and his handling of the economy as responsible and try to avoid being turned into a pariah.

I think everything is cool that he has really key constituents happy that he's really struggling and those -- in the women's vote.

Loser in Hispanic votes -- now being penetrated into the seniors especially as he increases more and more of you'll Paul Ryan's plan that you know Democrats can go out there demonize seeking.

-- the truce whatever you wanted but it was good -- -- and Medicare you know at least you're of the seniors to come out.

So he has he has some real key court decisions and make up that independent vote.

He does have blocked it right now we're seeing an -- these polls that the party bases on both are.

Almost 100% voting for their own it in your own party that independent so he isn't.

Some key -- to Tracy's got I have to -- -- -- seven or 8% keep showing up and all of these holes that are the undecided group and that's seven or 8% can expect to be ultimately terrified and wounded by these campaigns going forward.

We're gonna get -- some your.

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