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President Obama warned his supporters at a fundraiser in seattle that this election will be closer than 2008 because of a level of frustration in amer...
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I don't Seattle.
This election is actually going to be an even closer than -- And the reason for that is too many of our friends and neighbors they're still hurting because this crisis.
And they see what's going on Washington and they don't like him so there's just frustration level there.
That will express itself in the election.
That was President Obama had a fund raiser and he said -- Seattle.
Talking about what he predicts is going to be a close election -- tough fought election.
And warning his supporters that they need to be ready for a fight.
And this is power play.
And Internet you know that we have had an ongoing discussion here about the scenarios that we could see play out in this election.
We've got about 25 weeks left.
How's this gonna go what's the work here.
We're going to talk about that we're gonna talk about what the heck is going on with this whole gay marriage -- -- boys we go into about.
DCX.
The national dialogue about who feels what about what as it relates.
To do smearing other dudes and stuff like that.
We will talk about.
Whether or not that Ronnie can get the discussion back on the economy we will be joined today by Megan Kelly.
I know you like that Internet I know you're excited about it so this -- first time for us who were very excited about that.
We are also very excited to welcome back two of your favorites you know -- -- now he's the former spokesman.
For the PDD.
And James Anderson please welcome back Jim he's former executive director of the Republican party of Iowa and he is -- look for half.
Public affairs strategies here in Washington right there -- did I get all that right yet you -- ability especially the PB DR yes OK it's accurate.
OK so.
Let's talk about this president and the Democrats are setting up a narrative for.
A a grind out election base of the -- elections sort of like the last reelection effort we saw bush.
-- -- Where you have an incumbent president.
With some.
Structural problems inside of its numbers.
But that you can find a way to get a win in states like Ohio you know George Bush 100000 or -- votes in Ohio.
Got over the transom and made it into a second term Obama's setting up a narrative like that.
Is is that what's gonna happen -- let's start with you.
I think one thing that's.
Happening right now is the president's campaign is trying to guard against over confidence he doesn't want Democrats believe that this.
This elections and in the bat and the -- in the way you do that is talk about what's at stake.
And what the differences between the candidates but also some men and remind them that it is going to be very close to me look even the McCain campaign -- McCain race with close up until the last month -- -- And so you know I think this is Smart because you don't want.
Donors who potentially could get now to to wait and sit on their hands -- -- people understand the -- and to be excited to get out there volunteer so.
I think this is kind of -- also with the Democratic Party.
There are folks tend to require a little more work to get out to the polls and so I think this is probably Smart politics on the part of the president.
What's that you.
I had muscles under the Clinton I miss the arteries and that he forgot about the recession.
Now he's -- he did say that now we should be fair I will let let me do -- work for you when I say that the president said.
That he had forgotten about the depth of the recession they they did at the these fund -- Democrats watching a video -- -- basically looks like the day after tomorrow in which could be the US economy is destroyed by George W.
Bush.
Viciously and then.
This is Obama reacting to what Obama says he forgot about the -- he's reacting to -- like it's it's basically his own video like I should forget about how terrible George W.
Bush.
Us yeah I mean he says that -- 76% of Americans as we sit here today I think that we're still in recession yet I mean that's a problem for the president -- and talk about creating jobs.
When he see -- talk about getting economy back on track.
You know I think he's talking about gay marriage and on at least fifteen million dollars last night George Clooney yes that's all good but I think Americans want to hear.
One when his unemployment rate.
Well this but I always the only art that doesn't talk -- about the arc and and he says look right when he's not sure it's gonna go.
But right now the president needs people to be thinking about a close election.
-- so easily able to -- to be thinking about the issues that matter to voters.
Well that's -- that's a little larger man but do you see the possibilities is there another scenario that you can see other than a close space be based around -- in a very I think it's a very close -- and you agree with them you that I.
I -- adjusted to obviously a lot of respect for Jim but the idea that the president has been -- map.
Job creating jobs and economy is crazy and he's been you know he he went out this week talking about steps that congress can take.
-- -- create jobs he passed he fought in and want to payroll tax cut.
-- so he's been doing a lot on jobs and he's got 26 straight months private sector job growth in over four million jobs so.
You know what we -- thousand is not a cent has but it won't look with the young Republicans can say that.
You know this discussion gay marriage it is somehow in eight.
A planned strategy by but I wouldn't -- this was brought up largely.
Because in the news was a Tuesday a referendum -- supported by Republicans in North Carolina.
That would being gay marriage and that was in the news not prompting some -- -- yes certainly have -- that is certainly but come on let's let let's get off this idea that he hasn't been talking matchups you've been talking about jobs Katrina.
All right now you know that I was trying to wait to talk about gay marriage and yet here we are no matter what we do this week in Washington it's like it's like stalking me to talk about -- -- about this gay marriage issue.
But.
Don't wanna get back to that later but I really want to focus on thing is a political strategist.
You know put on your -- -- your your wrote that and think about injured doing the math -- you're doing this thing isn't -- the possibility and I noticed this.
In that reelection bids.
Whether it was George H.
W.
Bush for Jimmy Carter and in in modern American political history.
There is always -- incumbents lose they don't generally lose by narrow margins.
While -- if you look at George H.
W.
Bush he got blown out.
If you look at Jimmy Carter you got blown out now Gerald Ford was an incumbent I was really close race.
But you know what I don't see that's an area I mean I think what we I do see a scenario of -- 5149.
450 to 48 race.
Right now I think that the president has advantages and number of the battleground states they don't really see him getting -- now I think that.
We're gonna have a long conversation about the economy about other issues that Americans care about I mean we're not just selecting the CEO of the United States -- -- commander in chief and leader the United States and -- usual -- there but I don't see a blood as you really close election.
I was I -- integrated agree that on this one M I think it's going to be a close race settings and come down to the into the typical.
Target states that we've been targeting for the past few presidential cycles and off here.
Election campaigns.
Going back to the to a -- and his first -- -- we're gonna vote on what people care about what's affecting every household on a daily basis and it's.
Jobs in the middle class and -- President Obama.
-- making 4500 dollars less than anywhere and president George W.
Bush.
And other crime and certainly the president recognized that and he stood as he's trying to establish an -- that's exactly what it does not running away from a conversation that the economy he wants -- because he wants to put his record up against Mitt Romney's which was.
You know 47 and job growth when he was in Massachusetts he left of left it deficit and debt.
And when he was that being mean you know -- companies and laid off workers and that's a record that you know we're gonna debate during the campaign and I think we'd love to have that.
Yeah I mean if if the choice between.
Half term US senator and community organizer verses to prove -- -- creator.
Think that's an easy choice for American voters -- -- -- are talking points that didn't work in 08 now -- Norton's.
-- so well that of course in front of the president as is it he can't really use is always talking points he's got a -- he's got to try and find a way.
-- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- Unless Twitter that's he's dire wolf I put it out there every day for you -- you can read and it's awesome I promise.
But I wrote today about the fact that.
In January 2011 win the First Lady came out announced its Charlotte.
I thought audacious this is a bold play you're taking your further questions your your least margin of victory state that you want.
And you're gonna hold your convention there -- -- planning the flag in a big way in North Carolina given the fact that this state has now.
By very large margin pass this do the very stringent bill banning same sex marriage given the fact that the State's democratic governor.
Couldn't run for reelection numbers were so low given all the -- may have sexual harassment scandal in the state party given all of these problems is it still look like a good idea to have done that.
To hold their -- there are sure absolutely.
I mean look I think the Democratic Party needs to be about expanding needs to be about reaching out to different parts of the region -- can't just be -- northeast.
Northeast where news and and I think that's I think it's great to go to Charlotte and I think that.
You know you've mentioned some problems with in the downstate Democratic Party.
But overall if you look at president how he's doing in North Carolina he's doing fine it's gonna be that's going to be another I mean look he only won by 121000 votes and I think that it's going to be just as close if not closer.
I remember -- a press availability with.
Tim Pawlenty and Saint Paul, Minnesota.
In 2008.
When reporters were basically.
Harassing him I'm sitting there watching harassing him about the fact that that John McCain was gonna lose Minnesota where the Republicans had.
-- dangerously opted to have theirs because they thought it was going to be a swing state in the bush in the bush should look like they may be Minnesota is really going to be it's Wednesday picture and temple when he just getting -- by the press corps.
Over the fact that his party's nominee was getting scuffed.
Do you see that that's do you do you think that the North Carolina Democrats are going to be in the same boat.
You know maybe but I think the greatest story is that it doesn't really matter where they chose to have their commission in North Carolina was.
-- -- strategic move obviously.
With the current -- on same sex marriage and with the conversations being driven.
At least right now in this town and around the country about -- -- -- I think it's I think it's the states and the problem for.
For president Barack Obama think he would have seen that if you want.
Any other choices -- that there -- -- -- -- you don't think you don't think that he'd be an advantage to be in Cleveland in September rather than Charlotte know I had -- do -- it was -- going to be a better -- -- but what I'm saying is no matter where he chose.
I think you have same problem.
I think he's gonna look good after Oakmont clearly everybody have you can't get Cleveland some well I remember I love Cleveland and I love the rock and the whole thing.
But you -- look we -- right George Bush that is convention in New York he lost New York Jorge but he and I would use every Saturday night and I didn't know I understand that but my point is is that where you have your convention is all a lot is is not.
Always entirely about.
Winning that state brand it's a lot of it has to do with symbolism -- hope for was for 9/11 and I think and in in Charlotte is about opening up pathways to -- that southern states.
And also by the way I think the -- do the part that I think Obama I'd like least is that it's at Bank of America Stadium.
Bank -- America now that's that's not -- that's not a super awesome brands for the president to be associated with.
OK.
And last thing on this topic.
As we look at and but on this topic in general as we look at.
Now these states are gonna stack up.
Give me your top three.
Most likely to flip.
Blue to red for 2012.
Top three most likely to -- blue red Florida Ohio Colorado okay that's -- that's is that it that is that it if if they got all three of those Mitt Romney would be popping the top -- -- nonalcoholic champagne theory early in the evening fellow got.
-- I think that the toughest states that -- have to defend would probably be.
Indiana.
North Carolina.
And and probably.
Florida.
Say that's that was pretty good pretty good about to say he's gonna lose and I think Indiana's obviously.
Obviously stipulate you think brought about who's going to win all 56 you can you're -- optimistic that brought about -- win all fifty states not already swept into a second term.
Look out Wyoming here comes Barack Obama OK Jim we thank you very much for being with us.
