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Obama touts gay-marriage stance

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    Basil Smikle Jr. and David Tukey on whether it will help him with voters

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-- joining us here in our studio in New York we're delighted to have back when this.

Battles Michael junior founder of -- Michael associates former top aide to Hillary Clinton David -- he joins his former deputy regional.

Campaign manager for McCain.

Halen.

Guys I was looking at the Gallup polling data on this thing and I I want your reaction from.

60%.

Say president Obama's embrace of gay marriage makes absolutely no difference why David.

26%.

Say they're less likely.

To vote for a big cause of -- now 26%.

Does seem like much compared to six -- With 26% could account for the different.

-- -- real talk -- it's a real number point six presents a significant number of people when you think about the fact that.

Only about 26%.

Of Democrats list themselves as very excited about voting in this election whereas.

Upwards of 40% of Republicans think that way I think this is -- -- -- was gonna skew in Mitt Romney's favor.

His speech he gave in contrast to the -- speech the president gave was at Liberty University over the weekend where he.

Really seem to have galvanized a lot of evangelical Christians never mention his Mormon faith would make sure that they knew that they shared christianity.

And as there as the fundamental beliefs and so if he's able to really galvanize evangelicals like he wasn't able to do in the primaries be very interest -- going into November.

Dazzled the real clear politics poll averages.

Shows that within -- of the battleground states in seven of them President Obama leads Mitt Romney bill narrowly.

Bob but what's interesting is that in all of those eight battleground states.

We all of the ban.

Against same sex where.

-- you know it's existing IRA.

I don't think that.

The Obama position now infected -- -- I was -- gay marriage.

I don't think that's waste people's significantly one way or another if you were gonna vote against -- you gonna vote against -- On that -- not on that issue I think what this does.

We have coming out.

What that does for a lot of folks who may have been on the fence who maybe less inclined going back to that's 16%.

It's less about gay marriage to me and it's more about his focus on the key issue that they are -- -- vote on which of the economy.

And I think his statement.

About gay marriage -- and in print which came after Joseph Biden.

Is evidence to some folks who aren't as enthusiastic revenues and -- before.

Is more evidence for them that he is not focused on that that the core issues that.

I think that's where that 26%.

They come from you know what's interesting you know -- -- is that again the Gallup poll overall 51% of Americans support same sex -- And I'm looking at those who disapprove 45% so a majority of Americans -- support.

More majority do support it but I think a lot of -- those numbers will be different if you look at these battleground states you just mentioned I'm not sure what the exact percentages in Ohio or North Carolina or in Virginia.

Well I tell you what they are.

-- in Ohio president volleys 4742.

Florida 4545.

It's basically tied Pennsylvania.

The president leads 4639.

And Virginia 4744.

And and so on and so forth.

The president has anywhere from a three to six point lead.

I -- I think that that is polling that was done before he came out made his his.

His decision last week right and -- me very seriously how those poll numbers change I thought that.

Joseph Biden's initial floating of this about a week and a half ago was a test balloon.

And they probably did some people it was deliberate you don't think it was one of the mentally you Biden gaffe you can get away everybody's thinking about that -- -- given that way but.

And they probably do a little bit of polling after that to see if there was big swing in and whenever there was and he went ahead and that's you know.

Wouldn't do that would you have widened float a trial balloon -- -- it it creates the image of -- president.

Who's leading from behind you know he's he's taking his cue from the vice.

-- I think in the trial balloons are well used tool in politics that it happens Osama and I think what's also telling.

Is not just the questioning of Joseph Biden on this issue but the question Barney Duncan on this issue.

Yeah -- with Italy's senate education secretary refused forced to make a statement about it it to me what -- pages that.

Over that it seemed like every cabinet member at that point is fair game for that question so maybe.

The trial balloon yes -- at the same time they need to realize how quickly.

It was gonna.

-- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- Let me put on the screen a couple of -- -- polls.

Scott Rasmussen and we we look to follow Scott because he's got some really good polling data.

President Barack Obama and Mitt Romney had they had in a general election contest spirited.

President 44%.

48% for Mitt Romney this is a rolling average.

Over the last several days we make of that David.

Shows do I I think.

Scott Rasmussen is regarded by the left -- Republican pollster for the most part I think that he's one of the most sophisticated pollsters and make sure that he's.

Polling of likely voters usually as opposed to register voters so.

I think that that is number that the president needs to pay attention to and we're gonna see fluctuations.

In that rolling average between now and November and as Basil was saying this is something that's gonna come down to Wear -- -- the economy stands.

-- the economy is -- in the middle of the two candidates can it come down to the enthusiasm gap.

How galvanizes the right how galvanizes the left.

All right let me put another -- -- pull up on the screen here.

This is the approval disapproval look at that -- the president's underwater by six percentage points I mean daddy is never a good sign.

It's not people like the president but just don't think that he's doing.

Enough.

On the economy on that key issue that people coming out to vote on.

And as I was saying before I don't think again I think the majority of the country supports gay marriage -- it.

Do they want to see him talking about that right now instead of talking about the issues the economy and that's also throw in that.

That what happened was JPMorgan Chase over the last few days.

For those that are looking at what's happening with the bank's this sort of fuels their fire in -- angst and anxiety.

About what's happening in our financial system which.

You know they will argue nobody's been arrested when some -- -- it just it just feeds into that anxiety that much more.

You know what David on 60% of Americans think we're on the wrong track that's a huge number.

But it pails in comparison to the 83%.

Who think we're still in a recession 35%.

Of which thank it's gonna get worse.

Given those.

Horrible numbers under President Obama is why.

He should be way behind but he's not he's not people well doesn't this speak poorly -- wrong.

It might speak -- -- -- Mitt Romney I think it also speaks well of the -- ability of the president I think it also speaks a little bit about -- has it tends to.

And to have a referendum against the first black president.

People want and succeed I think to a certain extent real and that I think it race hasn't is an issue here I don't think it's an issue here but I think the historic nature of who the president is.

Makes people.

Want to believe in him that'll be interesting if there if they're willing to kind of hold that up when their pocketbooks are talking come November 80.

3% -- was on average recession Romney should be.

Way ahead to me that he should but he hasn't also think in fairness to Mitt Romney -- that -- -- that we're running out.

Guys roll -- -- right now I.

I don't -- they're OK okay are -- okay and fitness and they're probably.

He hasn't actually had enough time to separate himself from the rest of the pack he's now going to have to see this campaign really starts right now.

And well I -- us on -- ticker earlier that Ron Paul is quote suspending.

His campaign although he's going after delegates I don't know what exactly that means.

So maybe this gives him again a little more of an opportunity to make excuses for voters it's between me and Liberty University would essentially be the kick off the -- against.

Certainly conservatives you know forward.

If you don't want to I would like to talk a little bit about the hit piece.

And and I really do you think it was a hit piece.

One Mitt Romney in the Washington.

By Jason -- I just you know I read through and through and I read it over and over and over again and it it struck me as pack journalism.

That I don't think either one of you within.

Where guys are certainly would not think the most unprofessional part of it was -- changing aspects of what was online and not.

Putting -- They did -- quiet.

That is dishonest dishonest journalistic standards dictate that if you're gonna make a clarification or correction over traction you do so.

Public publicly you put -- at the top of the page make sure when has that -- been made this in Miami and sleazy wasn't it can happen -- senate.

-- steroids it was slimy sleazy in the Washington Post endorsed it and you're going to hack -- -- doing that I just think it was awful.

And it's sad that the -- once venerable Washington Post is not the ball.

In -- hack journalists.

Well it's how -- he's a different term intellectually dishonest.

That is not fair that's fair.

Three did and I think -- and unfortunately you know is that as somebody reading it.

You know what I tell people I tell my students -- and listen everybody got to watch everybody -- everybody.

But there's a fine line between reporting and commentary and that's unfortunate sometimes that -- -- -- home.

Can't I think that the fact that the alleged victim his sister came -- on -- B.

Absolutely livid if they knew that this has taken place and the camera doesn't -- -- talk about it but it shows that this is probably pretty pretty dishonest way to go.

Although Sony did say to me over the weekend and I think it's a fair point that Mitt Romney's reaction to this trouble.

Dad T.

You know issued an apology that if I did something wrong if -- if I did I don't remember this.

But if I did and I apologize.

Why I've got to tell you that if you did something like that you know -- from.

You don't there's nothing like that.

He was actually guy holding him down Clinton is here from -- And chances are if it was something that you did when she did several times that this was a -- this was who you were.

As a -- -- you wouldn't you wouldn't actually forget it because it it would be numerous incidents today.

Here's the thing who among us really wants to be.

I all the really stupid so all we do the job he did in high school but I mean -- -- It's true and I think throughout this campaign Mitt Romney's try to be the adult in the room and say let's stay focused on the issues that are really important.

Namely the economy which is the main selling point of his candidacy I think he just didn't want to distract.

Too much time from talking about -- -- -- what's next is.

The Washington Post and now do a front page acts today -- -- above the line.

Focus for the decision and I -- an incorrigible sense here.

Okay don't you girl Jessica you know show he's therefore disqualified from holding high office -- good people don't -- in the politics.

-- -- somebody brought that story to me I would -- we're gonna run this these are you crazy.

47 years ago when your teen agers.

Really.

And they only witnesses there is no longer alive.

Yeah right right and you know it's it's it's just feeding on this but I understand -- this bullying issue which is an important issue but I think the think that they went after that there is the mainstream media in the tank.

For Obama.

That's interest in.

I've been questioning whether or not there's going to be a resurgence of that I think there's certainly was when he was running against Hillary.

I think it -- a little bit for a period of time but I'm wondering if we're gonna get back to that point my guess is that we will.

Did I just remember 2008 sitting in our campaign office and seeing -- statistic.

Where four of fifteen that accredited members of the press fourteen -- registered Democrats.

And whether you talk about there being -- -- or not the fact that the majority of people who work in journalism.

A registered with the Democratic Party they're going to be things in the certain way.

Whether that translator and I think whether that affects this coming election spends on the enthusiasm again and how much presence able to appeal to.

His his base.

John Hayward in human events wrote a column and I'll quote from it the most interesting journalism.

In the quote unquote journalism.

Remain to be done in this story is determining whether David out axle rod was correctly involved in crafting the post story.

I don't think that's the -- -- axle rod never.

Well they'll be some distance there would be some giving people points -- -- our.

But they would I would imagine it would be very nixonian wouldn't.

Yes well it that is smarter about fifty -- -- syndicated.

I don't think there.

-- rivalry.

But you know if that but there's this district.

Is -- if you look at this.

The playbook that Axelrod is using its very similar to the one that Karl -- used in 2004.

It's a go after the candidates biggest strength and make it -- weakness that did it to John McCain in 2008.

They've seen as a maverick -- -- in the someone who is now pandering to the base and I think they're trying to do with Mitt Romney now his business credentials.

Do you think the president and his advisors wanna do any thing except talk about the economy and jobs.

So -- other words to the extent we can make this about personal issues social issues let's do that foreign policy let's not talk about jobs and the economy as it.

You know any.

Working for us I think that's exactly right and these jobs reports are going to be the most important thing for ocelot probably more important -- the polling over the next couple next few months.

And if they continue to be the way that they are as you're gonna see that with the president continue to try to distance himself -- -- ran out of other topics so Mitt Romney's challenge council would be to turn the subject back to the economy and now.

Yes the president is is that the president is nowhere to be talking about where would prefer to talk more about social issues right now because he's getting obviously high marks.

That's the enthusiasm quotient.

What's so foreign policy though you know we don't vote on foreign policy generally.

And -- -- what had it what he has to do is go after.

-- become that job creator good job.

Well you know I I also speaking of Gallup I looked at their polling data on who would do a better job of handling the economy.

President Obama 52%.

Governor Romney 61%.

The negatives are.

That the president has a higher negative on that 44% to Romney's 33 person.

Romney may be the beneficiary of not actually holding office.

The president had been responsible for the economy which is a good thing hasn't held office since before the recession -- better it's I think that.

That is a very telling statistic and it makes me think about the 1980 election with President Reagan and and and President Carter President Carter kind of skating along people not sure about how much they approved and then the last few days -- Reagan famously asked you better off.

Now than four years ago we really got people thinking and made them willing to reject the -- Charles Reece one of our viewers writes to us the following comment.

There's not enough focus on the economy.

And the reason for that is that it's a losing ticket for mr.

Obama.

He -- failed in so many ways.

In the figures that are thrown out there are serious seriously skewed.

It's hard to believe.

-- you know it.

First of all I do you think the economy is a little bit better but the numbers are not so dramatic that he can spend the rest of the campaign running on that.

When you couple that with all the uncertainty in Europe now particularly -- -- and how that may end up affecting.

The the market I think there's so much volatility -- it's really hard for him to actually -- a real campaign strategy based on so much uncertainty.

And so so I think that's part of the problem and I think oddly enough.

A president candidate for example who has who was such a tremendous communicated.

To me has always.

Had problems communicating and successes and unfortunately that's gonna work against him you know 56 months.

The unfortunate thing about that is one of his biggest successes might become his biggest failure and about a month when the Supreme Court rules on the health care health care act.

You know I wonder what impact it if they can throw it out is unconstitutional.

What is the political fall out in November over that he'd -- if it's the president's signature.

Achievement.

And it's debunked.

-- the Supreme Court is unlawful.

What does that do to the.

Fallujah I'll tell you I'll answer questions until -- quick story.

A young African American men -- twins early thirties Democrat but not involved in politics at all lives in Washington DC.

It's good to me a year ago you know around and health care bill.

He said he thought that the president was more concerned about his legacy than actually doing his duty job here and win this if if this is struck down.

That's going to be the knock on him that he was more about legacy is big ticket items as opposed to doing what you said you would do which -- change everything.

And that's that's coming and --

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