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Special Report Online: 5/16/12

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    What's behind latest election poll numbers?

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Welcome to another edition special report on line I'm Bret -- if you haven't been here before welcome aboard.

It's got a more relaxed lot of give and take people can you can ask questions or comments.

If you don't see your question or comment in the middle section don't worry they're being put in there.

By the -- thousands of -- Pouring in -- she also vote.

On the online.

Polls that we take in right here -- minds base.

And right now do you think Vice President Biden will be on the ticket is the is the vote we'll see how that pans out back with the panel Steve -- and Charles.

We left a little bit on the table as far as the energy thing do you think that energy is going to be a big issue in the fall.

No hard.

I don't I don't see an answer key issue I think Charleston as -- -- sort of -- -- secondary issue for some people.

The question is if the economy shifts that's the big ticket and if the -- than not the people say -- -- and what about this money wasted on.

Alternative energy it never paid off and then you know back my gain momentum but you know I mean started there -- I want.

What went through there.

-- the money and lost insulin to address it just doesn't mean the big issue right now at least if the economy continues to improve the people continue to have increased confidence as we saw on the -- -- okay well and I just don't think people are gonna come to that as a critical issue.

There has to be your president.

And and to see which is the economy's in better shape and you lost this money you do for us you know what why do you do that -- I -- In a wedding I want to -- that we didn't get to in the show Brett was one of the questions in the fox poll was.

What's the best thing President Obama has done to help the -- -- in the number one answer was he's done nothing that was 43%.

And you know poll that he's leading in and he's -- in which is pretty incredible when you stop and think about it.

So what does that suggest that running on the economy and perhaps it is not the best of him -- -- Ronnie -- because -- Steve.

Well I don't think it's President Obama has much of choice when we've seen him try to do but it didn't go to -- -- -- hold the shiny object over the side.

As often as he can whether it was the war on women or you know what have you both time and again he's tried to.

-- get.

The national discussion to move on to two different subjects.

But ultimate I don't think that that's gonna work for at least get to -- and the two.

Big liabilities -- the economy's on the one hand.

And debt and deficits on the other I agree with Charleston these are.

You know and in many respects the same issue in wasn't the other thing that was intriguing and in the fox poll was I think it was 38%.

Of people said they approved of his handling of the deficit.

Who are these people.

Who with 38%.

-- Chinese five and should have.

Bush that's an unbelievable number -- -- I think really what it reflects is just that's the core of his support people we're gonna support him.

No matter what -- -- think there's very little.

Argument on his behalf on -- -- -- -- some of these polls cued up.

Number six.

Now we don't have -- well there really good -- you can see -- Actually -- and can actually.

But let me just tell you what they look like.

If starting a small business who would you pick your business partner -- -- 48 Barack Obama 39%.

And then the same sex marriage question actually.

In favor now.

US constitution.

Amend the US constitution to ban -- same sex marriage.

It's down from 52% in march of 2004.

There you -- it to 30% see the control room he just give them time.

They can get whenever you want.

A big change obviously in the past.

-- -- Eight years.

And a lot of people thought Charles that.

The reason that the president made the decision he did on same sex marriage was because of donations and support politically.

Other than his opinion changed well it's a balance -- In terms of pure political advantage or disadvantage.

Clearly he gains from the donations in the energizing the base and not just gays in the base.

Liberals in general -- even people who are independents.

Always have a -- a the president is seen to be fair on race or gender.

Four sexual preferences.

They like him more and in other words if you are pure racism isn't only -- -- -- among minorities is gonna chip monks suburbanites who have a sense.

That's not what America's like -- would it does go to the heart of the constituencies that will.

Determine the election the independents and swing states so I think to some extent it helps them there.

But I think what we saw in North Carolina which is a state that Obama carry.

When you get what was it 60% of of those -- twenty point spread.

In their vote to ban -- a gay marriage in their constitution.

You get a sense and there are a lot of and we don't talk about the issue but who are.

Very much supposedly -- who don't wanna go -- and proselytize against it but.

Personally at the polls well and win there in the secret.

-- -- who say this matters and I think it's probably a net negative I think Obama understands that and I think that is why he's ninety you to talk about it.

-- you look at states like North Carolina and Iowa actually there's some movement in Iowa corn Republicans on the ground and they believe it's that dynamic is changing in Iowa which would be a key.

State for Romney to pull off -- win there.

Steve I think -- -- break independence down a little bit further and I think you're absolutely right about the super rats there's no question that I think it probably on the margins helped -- with.

With women in general -- -- with suburbanites but I think there's a whole other group of of independents who might actually end up being more important and that's this.

You know that that we have different names -- every election cycle was the old Reagan Democrats -- And you know former Democrats who have become more moderate or maybe now there they've moved over Republicans but then they still don't.

Register as Republicans they consider themselves independents.

But these are people largely working class blue collar people work hard in the states that are going to determine the election I would Oregon Wisconsin Iowa upset potentially.

Ohio maybe Michigan at Michigan is in play church goers Catholics people with more traditional values.

And and I think and we talked about -- last week on the panel when this came up there there's a huge vulnerability for him among that segment of the independent.

Electorate and you know we may be seeing and there are some surveys out now that show that this hasn't helped him in that way and we may be seeing some of that.

Blow back if you will come around and heard.

Could contribute to -- users -- perceptions.

From -- species of out of touch sort of economically and socially but this could contribute without constituencies to a sense -- Obama.

Is out of touch culturally and sort of you know he's.

You know West Coast east and West Coast -- the bi coastal elites.

But as contempt for as we saw what that that -- -- about the clinging to guns.

And to god did that that would reinforce that view that he's out of touch.

With sort of the beliefs and the traditional.

Values of ordinary Americans.

See our tiny Duffy in leftist Connecticut that's.

Writes what was the margin of error in the polls I did not see it.

Plus minus three.

Which is traditionally the -- -- -- and our polls.

And he's -- the real poll is -- about about your right you know listen.

There's a lot of criticism about the polls in general that we put too much emphasis on them.

And there are polls every other day.

This you know who knows it could be -- out liar depending on.

In other recent polls and where they they all stack up but it is how this poll came out each one has different methodology different sample.

And you know you have to look at it which is why we usually always put on.

The real clear politics average of recent polls that usually takes five recent polls in recent days and then it -- it out.

And it's kind of a fair.

A look at where most of the polls are in general.

That said there's -- -- talk for today it.

And technically speaking the margin of error means.

That there's a one in twenty chance that the poll.

It's outside -- the margin here is plus or minus three enemies is -- one in twenty chance that it could be six points off.

And we had Obama winning by seven so out of every twenty polls there's gonna be -- them and we we get a lot of holes.

Where it actually reflects the mean it's that it actually is outside the margin.

Meaning that it's off by a larger than six -- -- could get it could complete Iraq I think given the average that you talk about it looks like an outline -- You know two things are going on with corner and are very interest to me.

One is the argument that people are lying to pollsters especially with regard to gay rights.

That it and that took the position and I think what our pal Fred Barnes has made this point.

That there are people who.

Once in the privacy of the voting -- will act a certain -- with regard to their feelings about gay marriage.

But they won't tell that to a pollster because they feel you know uncomfortable -- expressing.

Their reservations to that pollster.

So it's possible they're lying about something as private -- gay marriage I'm not sure that we can that would carry over into lying about who do you prefer.

For president or vice president the second thing -- say about your program and -- new line with whom you sampling.

Who went in there which in the 120.

Change is not dependent on line and you know I don't know what I'm saying is sampling you know be if you have thirty states in this country for over a long period of time but thirty states and said they don't want gay marriage in the states -- -- -- and then go and look at the polls in the polls say more than fifty plus of Americans think gay marriage should really that's where the -- would come into.

You know the second thing to say -- That in a lot of these polls and got to be very careful -- they done by telephone.

Are they done -- someone who's on the phone asking the question.

Or is it automated Rasmussen has automated lips and turns and there's also a difference between likely voters and registered courageous and that's -- -- difference -- -- -- -- -- cell -- -- we are so.

Some time -- that if you take if you take a poll that spans over Mother's Day -- you answering what I am part of this now is are you.

Are you looking at the turnout sample from hole for actually 08 or ten and some couples use different samples so -- I don't know anybody that's maybe the biggest variation in the -- the results that we see is.

You have pollsters now who who -- arguing that they think that turnout is likely to be more likely to reflect.

A sample that looks like 2008 -- 2010 but everybody's guessing and that's why you have.

Some pollsters -- over sampled Democrats because traditionally registered Democrats turn -- greater numbers than Republicans.

So it's not I mean it's not a science that's why I think your point about the real clear politics -- is is.

The relevant one and that's why you take a longer look that's why -- have a a bigger picture.

View of this yeah I and we should point out that the campaigns look at polls and internal polls and that tells them where they're going and where they're campaigning and what they're doing.

Scott Jensen who often writes in from Wisconsin says shouldn't -- about Obama vs Romney just be about whether Obama is above or below 50%.

Dick -- -- undecided goes for challengers yes.

You're right the head to head match up is just the two when he asked independence the question also includes another option which is there were unsure.

And that's where you get that third option on the independent but that is a plus or minus eight.

And then differential.

Police.

At least he has C says -- police -- how to one for me he's my favorite all star panel -- Isn't that -- You know where we're talking about he's out -- is that.

You just -- that they're not.

That your -- we're at a we're -- And I didn't know what my fingers -- -- you know are your favorites and yeah.

-- I think it has all the time.

Shows you how good ones ground game here.

In my client did was advised me that -- -- right into the good thing.

We'll talk and I'm -- yeah who would you prefer as a life coach President Obama -- Joseph Biden -- Charles Krauthammer 94%.

Program.

In the voting so -- -- used to being the other guys and I usually I don't like coach.

Can do to somebody other than new -- he had 6% payout to Biden didn't get any Biden I want you to get to Dubai and just because it would be hilarious -- -- a guy around you all the time.

Just Internet you know you -- to do -- for second that's speech today.

About rich people what indecent.

He -- Richie and they don't ask don't get ahead.

Apparently that's what they don't -- -- -- body and my mom said I can be president or vice president.

-- -- -- -- -- -- I think Obama always like to ask you think US -- you know -- Read that -- -- chance on the air to weigh in on the -- attack on Biden because that was an amazing speech well so uninteresting to me is how supremely.

Unaware of himself -- man is he's ostensibly making an argument.

That he and Democrats and his people are not resentful are not angry and are not envious then he says I resent being called resentful.

Then he goes and is angry screaming speech which makes the point that he's he's trying to refute.

That's what's so amazing about -- is I'm not -- who are these people who think that I don't have a dream does anybody.

Accused anybody of any new class of people in America of not having a dream it was a complete -- -- man argument which is entirely.

Resentment against the day of the rich who are of course unnamed.

I that is truly embarrassing.

-- Laura in Oklahoma it is a flood now -- I like 12.

I love -- -- guest host on O'Reilly Mary -- gosh sakes and this is stern via via the love fest are Duncan says Scott Walker.

-- pulling out of Wisconsin recall vote what is the deal.

Is being put into the state.

Right there was an article yeah it was yesterday on my days are -- mixed -- Monday in the Washington Post that.

Had the -- and Democrats lamenting the fact that national Democrats were more heavily involved in both in spending and and in terms of making it a bigger issue nationally.

There's a lot of history there because I think many national Democrats did not want Wisconsin Democrats to proceed with the recall.

They're worried about money didn't want labor money diverted to Wisconsin when it was going to be needed across the country.

So there was already a lot of lot of I think -- will -- Wisconsin Democrats Wisconsin Democrats not getting the support that they wanted from.

National Democrats then went public -- complained to this Washington Post blogger who wrote this up.

Yen down I think immediately got some reaction.

I believe I think I -- tweet this morning to Debbie Wasserman Schultz is going to be heading.

To Wisconsin.

I don't know how much money they're gonna get I think what they particularly one -- get out the vote efforts and the use of national democratic lists.

To help mobilize people on June 5 in Wisconsin.

I mean this is the latest thinking about polls the latest polls show Scott Walker.

Up there's one that has amount.

They -- eight or nine points most of them are within three or four.

Maybe five on it looks like it's going to be pretty close but that it may be trending -- way.

Well I think we're gonna see back and forth but to repeat the argument here is about union influence in the difference between the National Democratic Party.

And the unions involved in Wisconsin the unions have made this a red flag effort do or die for them.

But they -- totally screwed up the selection of a candidate they could not agree on who would be the candidate to run against.

Scott Walker they've now -- Obama mayor of Milwaukee but of course he's a guy that lost initially.

And you've seen front line people -- know the herb Kohl's of the world.

You know and others.

Just back away from senators from Wisconsin in.

Okay what is the panel think about could be.

Surprise.

Significant sleeper issue that could impact the election come from Colorado wants now.

Let's not surprised it's hidden out there Europe has been sitting out there since the end of last year and -- -- one of the reasons -- -- was somewhat.

Down in the polls and.

Does it look as if -- year opens and head for collapse our economy was getting weaker and then Europe sort of had stood up put there and -- and they've been patching this thing forever.

But fundamentally.

Greece is broke and it cannot pay its debts and the Germans are not -- to the bail him out indefinitely so that's a fact.

To me the only question is when does this thing hit.

And when it hits it's gonna have a ripple -- because Spain is now paying there was a graph I saw the other day.

Where.

In 08 the difference -- -- about a Spanish and -- German book bond was 1% to lose 1%.

Higher if you -- the DS Spanish government lending.

And now it's a spread of about 4% or five this is a huge difference.

When it hits it's gonna have an effect I think obviously on Europe and clearly on -- is our main export market.

And the stock markets here and there which are all linked and an up again and go down at least.

For awhile now -- -- and recession I don't know.

But I think there's a real effective with the 401K affect tradition only unemployment -- is still wealth effect of the money you've got.

And when it shrinks which I think is what's happening now.

People have a lousy -- since -- economies on the way down -- I mean apart from the unemployment figure and that could really have an impact yeah.

And I think Europe situations.

Potentially.

Going to be something explode soon -- increase and increase you're -- you know.

They're going to have this new election you're seeing the rise of this brought one is can only be described as a lot radical left.

Parties you know it seems likely at least that they will be the controlling majority of the majority -- that the controlling party.

Of whatever the new government is -- -- basically saying.

We're done with austerity we're not gonna do this anymore we can't you can't just admit they don't want to get the 75 to 80% of the Greek public.

Does not want to leave the hero.

But at the same time they will not subject themselves to the rigors of this austerity program you can't do both you can't have both so something's gotta give and I think.

In all likelihood this is going to be that the party that forms the coalition.

And if they just opt out of austerity that's when everything thanks and the question the question really is -- -- I would say going back to Tom's other question I would still say that Iran.

That has the most potential to be that the big issue that people aren't talking you know.

-- the Euro one -- in New Hampshire says that alarmed the new French president is the French Jerry Brown.

The reality is already hitting and he will have to go back.

On many promises Jerry Brown the governor of California.

It's probably right except the question is what -- whole.

Much like the Greeks besides you know what austerity is not playing with the public.

And the -- the counter argument -- one that he made during the campaign was.

I believe in -- we will grow our way out of this we do not need in -- to cut back in terms of spending we need to.

Accelerate growth.

Well there's no indication that growth is present hit the moment or that he has the magic bullet that will lead to this growth.

So I don't know exactly where that growth will come from but.

Absent that he's going to have to break.

Many promises and even Jerry -- by the way I was I was on stage with mr.

-- and someone asked the question.

What is -- that keeps the two -- you.

Awake at night and -- this question you know.

And he is part of the road show that they etiquette on the road take it on the road at a time Jerry.

And Anderson and his answer was Iran.

At that point not the account.

Which is what struck would surprise me because I think Iran actually is.

A huge huge threat to world peace and then oil prices and the economy.

Greece has intervened six.

-- -- I don't think we had any answers.

For Israel and Iran right -- -- notified the next minute -- question I would use it belonged.

I -- insurance.

Now when John -- immediately opens up by saying he's glad I'm not dirty and erupted.

It's a great line of people love it -- And it's it's -- -- very warm applause is -- any idea it's these people suggest -- mormons here.

Oh I just wanted to say about the.

Though that awake at night.

I think the administration is working very closely with the -- it.

To put this crisis off until November.

When they're going to be meeting in.

In Baghdad.

They're working on an agreement which will just make another meeting.

You know may have immunity and have something to do and enriching your -- and then not gonna stop enrichment which would be.

He's giving up on the biggest of all the issues they know how into Richmond -- up to three and a half percent -- To 20% America how what what the number will be but here -- the point of maximum.

Pressure.

We're on July 1 Europe and America -- gonna put down the hammer on the Central Bank.

To give up that principle would be it -- fifty that I think in order to get reelected and took and to put off this issue.

Obama is gonna do -- so at least he gets a breather.

He gets a -- agreement that will carry him through and one of the reasons the price of oil is down is because it does the world expects that.

But let me let me -- is -- just say one thing about -- You know sometimes we get to the summer and it is really slow and everybody leaves Washington and it's very slow.

Jim just look at -- June 5 is the Wisconsin recall which arguably is the biggest battle between unions for that.

Relevancy of unions in states that have been having this battle then you have the decision on obamacare by the US Supreme Court that's gonna have -- mid June.

You possibly have Europe that is going to either implode or figure out has its way out of that.

And you have Iran and these talks that are Israel says is going nowhere.

And they main.

Actually this summer.

I mean potentially you have a really consequential summer in the world event.

It's and to me the fact of the Israeli government Netanyahu.

Who was on the verge of calling a snap elections September that he would -- won by a landslide.

Instead forming a wall to wall national unity government including the middle of the Kadima Party.

To me is what Israelis always do when they're preparing.

For some terrible event as -- is 67.

You need national unity if you're gonna have a -- -- that they want a war are about to launch it tomorrow but that is political preparation for a war the way that.

That the.

And that's exactly why I think this has the issue that could be the big issue because if you talk I -- completely agree with your assessment of what the administration is doing right now they just -- -- put this.

Off the run -- with like to put off forever but there's certainly willing to put an offer -- a short of my time especially given the rhetoric that they've -- out and from his point.

But does -- we don't how how does Israel react when Israel -- part of that deal they're not it's been clear for for more than a year that we haven't been working.

Closely diplomatically with Israel and the way that we had before there's tremendous tension among elected.

Leaders of the two countries I don't think it necessarily solves the problem United States can say we're doing this and further isolate Israel which would be.

A travesty.

And and I think would again.

Make war more likely if we Israel we isolate Israel for a through the contrary point of view is they're actually putting things off is not a bad idea.

If the sanctions that are in place are creating economic problems for Iran that would in that would weaken the regime strengthening opposition there.

And force the Iranians and to back off.

And realize that their position is untenable over time.

But more on the parliament that the history of the last seven years is that that proposition that idea has been shown to be.

-- apparently wrong and the best evidence of that is the testimony of the Director of National Intelligence.

Who said and he was reflecting all the other intelligence chiefs that -- S sanctions have had an effect on their economy undoubtedly.

But it has not had -- -- -- have an effect.

On the nuclear program.

This is a regime that's prepared to take all the economic hits he needs to achieve a historic achievement for them.

Being nuclear and being something that the persians and dream to be for 2000 years dominant over the Arabs in the ring.

Early opposition be -- them.

-- economic problems in Iran answer yes could be and you -- I've heard you say.

We should be doing more to support that happens I mean entirely but you can't hold your hopes in the movement.

Had peaked in 2009.

And was successfully.

Repressed what we stood -- If this were 2009.

We were in the middle of the revolution -- on your side.

-- and all the economic sanctions you -- -- you might get.

The change in regime but it ain't gonna happen now.

It's gonna have to rebuild itself and that takes he -- look at them if we've cut a new deal with the regime along lines that -- suggesting.

You think the Obama administration isn't going to turn -- support the opposition because it hopes that economic sanctions will have the effect that he suggests that we the last time.

I thought -- -- players support the opposition predictions.

I don't usually.

One.

Ronnie goes to Israel since then that would be sent.

And to.

We get a VP nominee.

Before August.

Wow you why you think you've been on the phones well -- -- yeah.

That's what this job at all.

Well I have always.

And some but don't you think it's wise I've always wondered why do you wait till the end of August.

Because when you see by and that they're assuming you were confident it doubles the power of the administration to reach -- people.

In terms of the news and publicity every day on whatever issue they want.

Why wouldn't the Republicans want to have somebody else out there are so you got to guns going in July and August rather than wait for September -- liver sort of understood the logic of waiting.

So I have by the way the other Africa with Syria as it's imploding.

The Drudge Report just moved Iran sends arms to Syria.

Now so -- in this.

The whole thing is good things -- minister.

-- open the -- yeah okay well on that.

Bright sunny note we're going to end this special report on line by the way 93%.

Said you should be their life coach.

I used to be -- to because psychiatry.

And I hate to tell you I retired I could never could find her line from -- conference.

Thank you watch -- best of what online join as have scores every weekday 6 PM eastern on that special report control room a little goodbye.

See you next Wednesday.

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