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And welcome to FOX News Sunday panel plus -- Bill Kristol former senator Evan by Karl Rove and Joseph Trippi.
And we're gonna continue talking about.
The politics which is how we finished our second panel and I I was -- -- and I know that there -- some partisan feelings are -- we're gonna be involved with analysis not talking points.
You're saying that you thought that.
You think that Obama and that the Brohm is gonna win easily.
Could win easily and everyone.
You know Obama's -- better -- with a -- -- very steady 4647%.
Approval rating.
I think if they're hungry with good campaign honestly could end up with a few to a 53 I don't know that it needs to be 51.
49 race.
I'm -- -- for what's happening Wisconsin we're talk -- -- talking about this for the show.
Where Governor Walker had that was elected by five points I think over the mayor Barrett of Milwaukee in 2010.
They've been attacking walker for a year and a half as is Larry Cole and I don't recall after on June 5 -- I would really watch what happens mentioned -- -- ahead and by nonpartisan polls now what 567 points which is stunning -- -- that was going to be a -- on 5050 race.
It strikes me that is a very good proxy for the national face the issues are very similar to assess which rating what -- state to go with conservative reform agenda.
Or the sort of -- -- Obama Barrett agenda.
If walker -- -- Wisconsin -- five or six points I really counselor -- -- when Wisconsin by three or four points and if Romney with Wisconsin with three or four points I think you're looking at a pretty comfortable on the victory but let me.
Bring in senator bond well I think the elections very closely Chris but actually give the president's slight advantage for three reasons number one you look at the post people like him.
They may question whether his policies that -- of -- company had been involved in scandals.
He's a good father -- -- -- the people like him as a human being asked -- or number two the economy is healing too slowly for any of our liking but it is healing.
Now if there were to be an event.
That would cause -- that -- And it's makes its.
Different -- and ashtrays from Wisconsin and look at the last three incumbent president's.
-- been defeated they all had bad economies economies -- not great for all three of them also had serious divisions within their parties.
And there was a spirited democratic primary in Wisconsin where they -- gone back and forth a lot of negative ads were -- on the eventual Democratic Party nominee.
This president faces no divisions within the Democratic Party that's gonna help him with turnout in a number of other things that I think give him give him -- slight advantage heading into the fall.
-- I disagree.
I'm I'm more bills camp I think this could open up like we had in 1980 but I'd say there's three reasons why President -- -- -- difficulty.
One is is like ability gap -- narrowed dramatically the polls are indicating now people like Mitt Romney about as much as it like.
A Barack Obama second while the economy is hurting.
In recent polls between 75 and 80% the American people say they think the economy is still in recession that in a good reputation that he needed -- to be for the incoming and finally.
While there is no bitter division within the democratic primary that primary universe have resulted in a primary challenge -- president clearly has an enthusiasm gap among Democrats.
North Carolina battleground state 21% of participants in the democratic presidential primary vote no preference.
West Virginia which is a little illustrative of the coal could kind of country problems and in say Western Pennsylvania and eastern Ohio 41% of the people -- democratic primary vote for federal -- stuck in the Beaumont federal correctional facility.
President vote for Barack Obama so I think the president is in great difficulty here.
You are as an incumbent what you're reelect number is and what -- or.
Job approval rating.
4647.
And the economy's not gonna get it on blow by Election Day that may -- where President Obama gets stuck on election -- You know I agree with bill watch Wisconsin in this recall I think we're gonna see whether -- the Obama and campaign goes in their hard and tries to drive turnout on the democratic side in this really use the pace of all of these turnout elections that there.
-- so we're gonna see how that plays out if it closes I think that's bad it's gonna be a bad side for Romney means I'm right about.
What Obama can produce on the grant grounded it widens I I think it does -- That that there's something may go the wrong -- I'm.
Pick up on something you said in the earlier panel you were saying you -- ground game was going to be more important than the air war as it does that mean that you think.
Sort of like Karl Rove and 2004 there's gonna be less about trying to get the swing voters and more about.
-- -- -- -- -- it -- produce their base.
Yeah I actually think that's -- with a theme that would.
Of course all the way through today -- -- senator by talking about the three states Ohio north.
Virginia and in New Hampshire -- half of a point between him.
I just don't think there's a whole lot of swing out there.
I think this is going to be who turns out their votes I think that's why you're seeing things like gay marriage we all these different issues that you're seeing images you've played out -- about I think about.
Energizing the base energizing young people of your -- on the Obama side.
And and I think this is a place right it's going to be interest things he does he aren't -- replicate.
What Carl in the bush campaign.
Did on the ground.
Because I -- been neglecting that I mean the Romney campaign definitely neglected that is the campaign in the primaries in seeing our time I'm gonna have thirty seconds to -- And thirty seconds to -- commercial pros let's get the 2004 strategy right.
Maximize turnout among Republicans and go very nimbly after swing and Democrat groups 44% of Latinos voted for bush.
Highest percentage of Jewish voters voted for bush -- -- it's written since 1984.
A race the gender gap.
That's 60% of the African American vote in Ohio.
Not by going after the -- but by going after elements of the other guys coalition so.
You got to do both you gotta get maximize turnout and you -- you better be and I hope Romney is focused on.
Hidden parts of the Democrat -- I stand corrected now.
-- three -- three quick things I still think this is going to be a very close election and a very close election for Joseph Trippi is right turn out can matter who can energize their base.
-- a good point about there being some enthusiasm.
Problems in North Carolina but Carl I'd ask you to explain why you have Mitt Romney in my state after the election was already decide the nomination decided got sixty something percent of the vote of the Republican primary in Indiana.
Even lower freely as our allies in the ballot at the final thing Chris in the most important point this election's going to be decided by events that we have trouble anticipating right now does.
Does -- leave the Euro zone before November what does that mean.
Something happened in Spain that causes it destabilizing in the markets what does that mean.
Is there an attack on the Iranian nuclear facilities it causes a spike in the price of gas that kind of things so.
In an election that close it's -- it's events that's what's gonna make this such an exciting election to -- No -- -- -- we all agree it's going to be an exciting election and I agree with you bill I think has to be a big choice election as we saw in our first segment with with Ryan and -- Very different philosophies about where the direction the country -- thank you all.
Please -- -- without us throughout the week let us know what you think about.
These this situation what the election is gonna turn on please.
Go to our Monday edition of Wallace unplug what you can find here at FOX News Sunday dot com.
We'll see you back here next.
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