Breaking down 2012 electoral math
Karl Rove and Joe Trippi calculate the numbers
- Duration 7:12
- Date May 22, 2012
Karl Rove and Joe Trippi calculate the numbers
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Let's examine the numbers a little further from both sides with Joseph Trippi and Karl Rove both have done this math on past election nights.
Many times good evening gentlemen.
I wanna start with state by state map first ball and the current state of play as of today.
As far as poles this is the the polls that are out there.
Currently in these states there you see in the blue solid Obama states to seventeen the red -- -- states.
Nine B then lean -- here the pink states that's plus or minus plus.
Four to eight lean Obama -- the light blue plus 48 and toss up.
Plus or three percentage points and there you see where things stand as of today.
How -- we have some regions where we can talk about different states as James laid out that 321 strategy.
Yeah three to three states.
That are up for grabs obviously North Carolina Virginia and Indiana that was Republican states in the past.
And there's a pretty pretty good agreement to those to those three states -- -- Romney today and one is going to be about program right to the end.
But look at that it it if if Romney wins those those three states plus Ohio and Virginia actually Ohio and Florida.
And all he needs in order to when the election is either.
New Hampshire or Pennsylvania or Wisconsin or Michigan or trial -- Colorado or Nevada or New Mexico but when somebody looks at that map today.
And they look at the numbers today that look at the disparity between President Obama and Mitt Romney and there's a big -- Well there there is a minute he did Obama starts off with a huge electoral advantage he's only.
You know -- depending on what you're looking at right now about 47 electoral votes away from.
From from getting there says it's a lot easier path for him in the 321 strategy.
It does make sense it's the only credible plan I've seen it says -- -- in half and maps out how Romney wins.
The problem right now is Obama only has to disrupt one of those things like Virginia in the group of states Indiana.
North Carolina and Virginia I agree Indiana's problem lead off the table right now.
But you when you get to Virginia.
That's going to be -- dead -- always the end of a dog fight in of the Obama stops -- -- there just stops them and one of the three it's over for run.
You look and see the regional and these have the numbers in each state and you can kind of make -- -- these are the explain as this -- the polls -- -- Curtis is an average of the last thirty days public polls in the states.
So -- -- the result is gonna draw it is gonna lag what's happened nationally.
-- and in just look at the changes over the last two weeks on this map.
From George went from leading Romney to say from me Oregon went from safe for mom and -- lean Obama Wisconsin went from safe Obama do a toss up.
Obama lost ground -- -- a Romney picked up ground in Maine new York New Jersey all of them stay -- did today in the Obama can't.
Toss up state -- got stronger for -- a six point swing in North Carolina from down three up three.
And -- got stronger and Tennessee and Oklahoma State's authority in his column.
And as we catch up when there's like Texas who is a -- stayed on this map that's because we don't have recent poll and -- I can tell you have spent a lot of time on home.
It is a going to be a strong deep red states so this map is gonna show over the course of the next several months.
I think increase -- straight for Romney in 321 is a is a good path to victory for -- five states and then pick up one of any element of almost.
You know ten other states lets you zoom in and out west Joseph and there are a number of states out there that are interest -- Colorado really among them and of that.
Well Colorado Nevada and New Mexico all three -- state state -- it.
If you give.
Colorado -- you see their leans Obama at this point 6% lead.
New Mexico looks solid for President Obama.
And there you see Arizona is in the tossup category at this point.
Right when I first law I'm not I don't really think Arizona's and played but it will will CME and again the more Obama can open up states and and pressure Romney to fight there.
That the tougher it is for for -- -- place so -- they may try to keep it to take Arizona and it can put some pressure there but I don't really think they'll end up winning it.
The the problem here is because of the number of Hispanics.
It in these.
Those four states actually out west and the divide -- that Obama has over.
Romney -- Latinos.
It makes it very difficult for.
Romney making inroads in those states which means and -- even makes it possible for a bomb an acquittal Arizona in the play.
That forces this strategy that I think 321 where he's got to win the three were Republican leaning states Indiana North Carolina Virginia.
Passed in the -- pull off Ohio it in Florida -- -- no Guinea's rentals and -- -- the toughest is Virginia.
Oh absolutely I think right now -- -- place that Obama can stop Romney today.
And all the way down if he stops Romney in Virginia this race is over and I think that's why you see both of these campaigns unless they can swapped out -- was.
Wisconsin they have to DSU two out of them.
Yeah but there's no one state that that is indispensable if in Virginia I do think is gonna be a battleground right down to the end but Joe's right.
If he if Robby -- -- when Virginia if he wins Iowa and Wisconsin both of which are risk today new polls show the race and at Wisconsin dead even.
And Iowa we've got only old polling here that puts -- in the Obama camp but you take a look at their new TV by thereby and a heavy heavy heavy heavy heavy and I want.
Which says to me it's a sure sign the state is up for -- looking at this map.
Do you say the odds at this point.
Favor Romney -- -- first halted two things one is I'm writing in my column on Thursday in the Wall Street Journal on 321.
And I think there's an easier path for victory for -- then there is for Obama because Obama can no longer take for granted states like Indiana and North Carolina he's going to be defending turf.
And it's harder when you're defending turf than it is when you're going after the second thing is is if you wanna get this map go to Rhode -- comments on apple will send it to you every few weeks I'll see you can confront continue to operate free.
Bye -- -- -- dot -- and what special report we'll analyze -- and everytime I tell you -- that's right well look I think.
-- you -- -- and does Obama has organizationally.
And Electoral College wise and I think this is gonna probably come down to Virginia.
I think there's reasons he has an advantage -- -- northern Virginia's grown tremendously.
And so I think look at this I really believe it comes down to Virginia right now today things can change.
The convictions gonna happen in North Carolina that could change North Carolina and listen we'll have to wait -- political science shows -- -- -- -- -- -- -- state has no impact on the outcome and in Northern Virginia.
Northern Virginia is going to be the key but the thing that the Democrats -- got to worry about is while registration Northern Virginia was grow between OO and O four no wait.
It peaked in -- -- and they're 35000.
Fewer voters in Fairfax County today active voters in Fairfax -- -- -- -- at this point three and a half years gentlemen thank.