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Assessing Obama's re-election chances

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    Political expert Larry Sabato looks at latest numbers

  • Duration 3:57
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Fox News is America's election headquarters in right now the crystal ball is out with some new indicators for us.

For president Obama's chances of reelection this November.

He will likely face off with presumptive Republican nominee former Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney.

-- recent Gallup poll finding mr.

Obama's approval rating this month.

47%.

-- -- director of the center for politics at the university.

Of Virginia joins us now Larry always great to talk to you so how does president -- a bomb was.

Approval rating 47% for the month of day.

Compared to other incumbents running for reelection dating back to 1964.

It's below.

The approval levels of presidents who won reelection handily.

It's a little bit above the approval levels of presidents who were defeated for reelection.

I tell you what it really projects -- this is based on on the history of of job approval numbers it projects a very close competitive race in November.

Which I think is exactly right.

Now -- put up on your screen a quote from your crystal ball.

Because this is a specific projection based on late may month.

Based on president Obama's -- approval rating of 47%.

And the prediction -- shown on figure one which we're not gonna show because -- very complicated.

We would expect mr.

Obama to receive 51.

Point 6% all of the major party vote in November.

These results suggest that President Obama is currently a slight favorite to win a second term -- how reliable is that forecast.

It's 67%.

Reliable.

Which means that it's a close competitive toss up in November -- the second part of the analysis -- in economic data.

The GDP growth for the first half of 2012.

And that lowered to the -- percentage for Obama to about 51%.

At a 90%.

Explaining 90% of the variable right but.

The long and short of it is it's a toss up that's really what this simple elegant.

Yet sophisticated model shows in May and that's all you can say in -- you can't go further than that inmate.

You mentioned -- two other more sophisticated.

Additions to the model one of them that growth rate of the economy.

If that GDP grows by 2%.

The president gets 51% of the vote but if it's below that Larry then what.

It it's below that.

His percentage goes down depending on how much further it's.

But that the long and short of it is the European recession.

Could easily be slicing off.

Part of our GDP growth we don't know will have to wait and see what the third quarter shows.

But you know the outlook -- and all that positive -- economy it's very slow growth.

The this second part of that more sophisticated model is also something you refer to as the time for change factor what is that.

Yes and this was developed by professor Alan Abramowitz down at -- a very very sharp guy who knows election modeling.

It's it's a constant it really just asked one basic question how long as a party been in the White House.

The shorter the time stand the more likely the president -- to be wrought reelected look through the twentieth century great.

Only one time.

Was a party ousted when they had had the White House for just four years Jimmy Carter.

Gee what president has Mitt Romney been comparing Barack Obama to.

Every chance he gets.

Jimmy Carter absolutely.

Larry -- so interesting stuff always fun to talk -- thanks so much.

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