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Chris Stirewalt, Mark Mellman and Ron Bonjean discuss President Obama's efforts with Blue Collar voters.
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It but it's not.
In my life.
Okay.
Okay.
That was President Obama -- -- out of the Iowa State fairgrounds outside in the morning at attacking a Mitt Romney's time is the CEO of Bain Capital.
And by the way and that -- she -- referred to Romney's speech in the city week before as a cow -- of distortion adding a new phrase to the political lexicon and this is power play high and Chris are all and here -- -- and -- steamy.
Friday before Memorial Day weekend in Washington.
The campaign.
For the presidency is coming into clearer relief.
As President Obama start to give it to the center to try to win back it's a lot of disaffected.
Blue collar white voters out in swing states in places like Iowa his task is pretty big.
But he's got some that hey he's got some stuff in his arsenal that he can use we're gonna talk about that.
We're gonna talk about Mitt Romney going to West Philadelphia which it's not really around -- precinct to try to stake his claim.
That he is racially cool president and somebody that can it can talk to all Americans.
Of race creed and color aside.
And we will talk about what that's going on at Wisconsin they're gonna have a big vote out there and Democrats and Republicans are jockeying for position ahead of the vote will do all that here's -- will be here you'll have fun.
Let's start the fun.
-- we start the fun I think we should.
You guys know Mark Mellman he is one of the most respected democratic pollsters he is a great strategist he's a good guy.
So welcome back to you Mark Fletcher and of course you know -- -- of course you know -- biology because he was not only director communications for the speaker of the past any answer.
-- -- -- served on the senate side he served on races all across this country he also is a pretty big deal we will stipulate welcome.
Thank you alright okay so -- those honoraria out of the way.
So -- the president Washington Post -- get right to the numbers.
In.
Among this is -- admittedly very narrow segment of the electorate.
But vote against Mitt Romney with white middle class voters who identify their economic condition -- struggling.
In the -- Washington Post poll that's wrong that's Romney 58 Obama 32 I think it's actually.
Mixed up on the graphic that should say Romney 58 Obama 32.
That's -- right mark.
Well that's not bad bad teachers if you look at that question because overall the president's winning so you can afford to lose those -- by that much and still win.
You know last time met the president lost a non college educated white voters by over twenty points Democrats have unfortunately had that problem for some years.
-- good news from the democratic point of view is.
We -- have to get 40% of the white vote to win this election that's -- that's really challenges to get to 40%.
We're pretty close the truth is when Democrats are getting killed across the country 2010 democratic candidates got that 40%.
All right so -- the president did.
47%.
With white voters on with a household incomes of under 50000 dollar 50000 dollars we're talking that's the media about the median income for the country.
That's the dividing line that we use we're talking about.
The middle -- tiles live with the 20% in the middle between 40060000.
Essentially.
When we're talking about these folks in their situation.
The president did okay with them before he did 47%.
And to mark's point they may come home to roost if he keeps bashing Mitt Romney and saying that Mitt Romney is -- -- -- and he wants to take away their stuff.
Right well I think that this is still very mixed bag if -- grimy as is -- -- -- and it shows that Obama's not sealed the deal.
-- after a year of pummeling.
Around me and I'm pummeling Republicans -- -- on the middle class warfare issue.
That hasn't hasn't really -- not -- in its and it hasn't helped hasn't helped Obama.
And and mark to this point all of whom most of most of all of the wrong conclusions that could be gathered about the president's primary performances in apple action and border states have already been drawn so let us now -- -- correct ones.
The these voters I makes an average power play and you can have it for the simple cost of a follow on Twitter at he start well I would heartily encourage you to do so because I read it every morning and I put it out there for you don't.
It is not irrational if you live in -- county west -- Huge coal producing center to a voted for Barack Obama in 2008 and they did by eleven points over John McCain.
And then in 2012 say I dislike your policies on the coal industry so much.
And I dislike you -- administration so much that I will vote for.
Federal inmate 127589.
Keys -- Instead of -- and I right.
What -- is certainly possible but the other reality is it's very hard to draw conclusions about a General Electric.
From primary vote it's a much smaller universe of people that bother to vote.
Especially democratic primary -- it's not really contested.
Nobody thought that the president was actually going to be the president right will be the presidential nominee that -- that was awesome hey it is it's amazing.
But the truth is voters who really had -- want to protest are the ones who are motivated to go out and vote in those kind of election so.
Look it's not a good -- to be sure but it's I don't really think it's very important sign one or the other what Democrats -- impressed -- -- -- West Virginia but amusing illusions about that or Kentucky.
But I think the real question is can he win these other states that are critically important to get airlines at Virginia Ohio Pennsylvania.
Colorado others are and each -- these if you look at those states in in the last election the president actually did better among those non college educated whites -- he did across the country as a whole.
So if you look at the key states Michigan Ohio Pennsylvania the president actually did better with non college educated -- there very definitely the elsewhere in the country so we -- these demographic groups we got to remember it's really what happens in these individual states that matter and those demographic groups don't behave the same way it always across -- -- -- -- -- that it doesn't make you racist if you live in -- can and you vote against President Obama because they voted.
Once before.
OK Ron.
The to mark's point.
President Obama in in these key states that we're talking about especially Ohio.
Which is going to be the Ohio and Virginia increasingly it looks like that all that's -- -- be all the marbles.
In so many ways.
These states have a lot of those voters and in Ohio President Obama did pretty well because there's a large union presence in Ohio it's still one of the states.
Wisconsin union presence has waned somewhat but in Ohio as well it's may be -- this one swing state where unions really had a big footprint.
They pulled off a referendum to peel back.
The governor's government worker union legislation.
Keep the president has it that I can use unions to help them with these -- Collar workers right well you know what -- but the but the counterweight is the economy the economy is so bad out there that is struggling among.
Among these voters who -- in 2008 that he was going to change things and they thought in 2008 that things will be better now and they're not.
They're pretty upset about it therefore he hasn't -- -- him he hasn't been able to get across the line.
You know when these key states that you talk a market completely -- the best to slice those are the states that really matter.
And yet he has not been able to win those photos over.
But this is going to be a close race in the deal hasn't been -- there's no question about that but the reality is in Arizona.
Mortal seen in this economy.
He's doing what Mitt Romney did it's getting rich by exporting jobs by firing people.
That is really an.
Italian we've seen this -- that the time across the country that is the mortal sin in this economy.
And the deal's not done yet but when has that message starts to -- -- the electorate I think grounds that more and more difficulty.
Cutting jobs in America creating jobs overseas that is the mortal -- a concert to mark two marks.
-- the president is taking a gamble on the gamble is is that he is currently getting.
-- use them.
Turned over a hornet's nest on the Bain Capital stuff and he has -- Democrats and the people -- the advent Dell's and the please do not do this in your gross us out and all of that stuff.
But he's pushing through and he's.
Being he's taking it to Mitt Romney by name on the trail in a way that we've not seen incumbent presidents do this early he's owning it and doubling down on the -- stuff.
But his belief is as mark points out.
Yeah I'm gonna hurt myself with moderate suburbanites and outside of Philadelphia outside of Pittsburgh outside -- Columbus yes but I have time to get them back what I need to do right now is explode Mitt Romney.
I was about the -- and that's exactly marker saying and that's exactly what's going -- of the bombings he's trying to define Barack -- right now.
Before Iran can capitalize and and take President Obama out in the election so to speak.
We you know it's funny because -- -- Bain Capital issue has not helped Obama yet and yet it hasn't.
Damaged running yet it is still an issue that's -- flocks.
Ronnie has been able to defend himself very well and being capital yet neither has President Obama been able to.
Make inroads he needs to convince voters.
Convince voters that.
We haven't really what I think is very hypocritical interesting as president I ask around me here I'm here you're gonna be I will give you time to finish your point we have to say about mark.
