Obama's Southern Strategy
Chris Stirewalt and Michael Barone discuss Obama's southern strategy
- Duration 9:48
- Date Jun 1, 2012
Chris Stirewalt and Michael Barone discuss Obama's southern strategy
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Achievements that the fund the civil rights movement -- hang them again in the balance.
That was attorney general Eric Holder earlier this week speaking before the council of black churches and decrying efforts.
In many states across the country to require voters to show.
Voter identification -- identification to cast their ballots this is power play we are back in studio.
It was Michael Brown helping us to figure out how to do all this stuff.
Now the reason we're talking about Eric Holder and voter ID laws and why the Justice Department is fighting them is that as we were just as we just on the map there Michael.
For Obama to win in the two southern states that are up for grabs this time North Carolina and Virginia.
Huge black turnout.
And even losing some of those ballots.
True the idea that you have older black voters may -- who don't have identification and things like that would be pretty big deal.
Well North Carolina last time -- 50% for Obama 49%.
For John McCain and -- you're looking at a very narrow margin.
Did President Obama needs every vote he can get there.
And they just had a referendum in their primary and may.
An amendment one which is -- -- state constitutional ban of same sex marriage and civil unions.
That passed by 61 to 39%.
The position of President Obama supports -- -- announced the next day when they went after one -- -- well I think a lot of same sex marriage advocates would say she would have helped us that the president Eisenhower's analysis of the day before rather than day after.
It -- is so he's identified was what was a 39%.
Proposition and you know.
There's a particular problem at issue which is young voters tend to be heavily in favor of same sex marriage.
Black voters have tended to vote heavily against maybe a little less okay Carolina aren't as good -- -- -- 7030 against -- against same sex marriage -- North Carolina seems to have a closer there was no exit poll you look at the county returns it probably was less than 7030 against.
He needs both of those groups to turn out in large numbers in.
You -- you he's been in the position of the old policy some of my friends are for the bills and my friends are against the bill and I'm always was my.
Franchise -- with my friends -- -- says this.
That did -- stole your jacket broke.
Now where that -- Michael and I may be the only two people native born to Michigan who have -- seersucker suits this week I'm not sure but he has his own I have my own it's not it's not like they've grown a little early yeah exactly.
On the question of North Carolina and John Roberts -- very good piece on Fox News yesterday.
The president's decision to have their convention in North Carolina to decision they announced last year.
Yeah and they're gonna go to Charlotte and the Republicans did something like this in 2008.
When they pick Minnesota and Saint Paul and said.
We've Minnesota's going to be a swing state of Minnesota -- shooting was not a swing state in 2008.
Is that does it matter for the president either in winning North Carolina holding its convention there.
Or does it matter in terms of having the optics if he's losing in the state.
Holding his kick off.
There well it does North Carolina turns -- -- -- sort of embarrassing state for Democrats right now you've got the democratic governor Beverly Perdue and her first term.
Dismal job performance record and she's.
And she's now running for re election the Republican is leading in most polls that we.
-- -- the owner of Charlotte wide margin you've got you don't Charlotte where they're gonna have -- convention the president is gonna give his acceptance speech presuming he's nominated.
It's amazing now under the I didn't understand declared is make you staging a late rally would get eight of America stadium which brings up memories of the bank bailout -- you can close to the big banks and so forth.
Art is perhaps not the best venue and unions by the way now not to permit unions are not happy because North Carolina is a right to work state -- -- the lowest union go senators Warner and torso -- whole country and so as these union organizations that are basically underwriting sponsoring.
This convention find themselves that they can't.
That they're not a union workers involved as many tens of millions of dollars are spent surrounding it can only help those electric he's got to have an electrician plug is the thing and then he got an electrician to pull the plug out -- yeah -- -- -- unions so so it's tough benefit.
Virginia is going to be a different story for the president.
Is the right now North Carolina looks like it may have may fall off the table for Democrats and it may be sort of the Pennsylvania.
Four do the Democrats Republicans are thinking oh we're gonna win Pennsylvania than they don't well bush got -- 5140 you have lost that was -- close and all 400 I'm pretty close no cigar no cigar.
Virginia though is almost guaranteed next door to be a down to the wire absolute.
Dead heat right well that's right.
Mean Virginia was 5346.
In the last election the USA was 5346.
It was a state closest to the national average and it's.
Percentage of the vote for the candidates him.
You know President Obama has the same problem -- that he has -- North Carolina.
He's he's got to get young voters out in large numbers he's got to get black voters out in large numbers so.
They did a great job of that last time and if you go look at what do you know when you do your percentages -- -- -- -- -- -- like he doesn't it doesn't and so forth what you see in Virginia and only was that.
A lot of these counties -- -- Virginia that have higher black percentage is not necessarily a majority.
No population increased but the voter -- a little -- from -- -- to increase the democratic percentage increased.
Clearly the Obama campaign into a combination of of spontaneous enthusiasm for the first African American.
Produce big results can be duplicated -- this time.
I think gonna be able to duplicate.
You know all those high rise buildings when you go -- -- river here in Washington and Arlington and Alexandria V singles apartments.
Some conservative friend of mine since they are infested with Obama voters.
That's not very -- that -- primary asset purchasing products -- -- but the fact is.
You get huge percentage of those jurisdictions went over 70% for Obama.
Are they -- abuses are they gonna go to the polls certainly the Obama people are working hard to try him make sure people -- registered because you know.
Singles apartment populations tend to be -- to carry over for you -- there are transient many are moving back in what.
Mom and there are some of them even get married to each other.
Whatever -- get whenever -- -- it's all perfectly as well I'm legal Virginia but it isn't easy I saw the president wants it to be legal for them he just is not willing to fight Virginia on those grounds.
In North Carolina back to North Carolina.
The president doesn't need to win North Carolina but Mitt Romney must win north Carolinas and that's -- Well and I think one interesting thing -- -- took a look at the North Carolina data for the comparing president Obama's what majorities or lack of you know percentage -- With Bill Clinton in 1996.
Which were basically the same percentage -- 7%.
Nationwide peripheral -- 60%.
For Clinton so they're roughly comparable.
What you see is that Obama made big gains views of the Clinton in the big counties and -- -- include Raleigh Durham Greensboro Winston-Salem -- He lost ground season beat Clinton in the -- power.
-- so forth so you know you had.
Seven counties I think in North Carolina -- same sex marriage was endorsed in that amendment one wrote those -- the counties where to -- Obama.
Did well these -- -- Clinton.
What was one of the keys that black turnout young turnout.
Affluent voters these are the areas where you'd have to awfully high income people and I think one of the questions that I've looked at a few times on -- Many others do so he is just -- of the National Journal wrote an article on this also is.
Is the affluent -- good luck to you know for President Obama the Democratic Party or is it available to Mitt Romney who in fact.
Won the Republican nomination because he had only because of staff he has called kill -- in the suburbs he killed them in the affluent suburbs is he.
Did seeing Shaker Heights sicker and -- -- this -- not the candidate from Bloomfield Hills at Michael Brown.
When he was at the grammar school he didn't let anybody here I know what to be true Michael we thank you so much for being I didn't tell my own it's -- -- -- the other guys.
We thank you Michael for being with us we hope you have a good weekend doesn't wanna tell you something you better prepare yourself on Monday.
Will be coming -- -- -- Live from Madison Wisconsin as we start three days.
Internet coverage Internet television excellence from the badger state as we cover the recall election -- there it's going to be fantastic you're going to love it so just brace yourself is all I can tell you and now as -- like to do every day we want to leave you with the word from our French are.
-- Obama is jeopardizing something by going after Romney.
First on -- now on the governorship.
Through -- but often himself.
He squandering of pretty tactical advantage he's going to one advantage and incumbent has moved which is -- and using comparable.
That the presidential or other guy who's above -- all he's never gonna have to transcendence of the Obama although way.
But if he's gonna get down there and I think any other politician and -- stuff so early on.
-- Skinner in no way that he won't be able to repair.