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June polls a good presidential predictor?

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    A look at election history

  • Duration 3:37
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About five months away from Election Day the latest average of the polls shows a tight race between President Obama and governor Romney.

According to real clear politics right now the president has a slight edge over the governor.

A little over two percentage points.

If you go back to the beginning of June 4 years ago Gallup daily tracking had Senator McCain -- Over then Senator Obama by one percentage point and our next guest says.

What the polls show in June.

Is not a very good indication of who's going to win in November.

Let's talk about -- Larry 70 the director of the center for politics at the University of Virginia you've taken a look at the historical record.

And you say that June polls are not a very good predictor Larry watch.

John that's absolutely true be -- the June polls.

The last eight presidential elections using Gallup not the jump on gallop but because Gallup is the gold standard.

Six of the eight elections.

They're June polls projected the wrong winner now.

They were trying to project they were simply measuring what existed in June but that's the whole point.

You can't tell what the November results are going to be from what the June polls say that's the message people should take away they should look at June polls and say.

She isn't that interesting and then turn the page.

-- in 1980.

Jimmy Carter was going to beat Ronald Reagan as -- -- By a -- -- he was way ahead of Ronald Reagan in June and of course Reagan beat Carter by ten full percentage points in November.

And then in 84 Reagan against Mondale.

But that was that was one they got right the the only two they got right we're landslides.

Reagan's landslide over Mondale although they have eaten up by only half of what Reagan actually beat my -- my in 1984.

And then 1996 was the other semi landslide for.

A Bill Clinton he beat Bob Dole by a little over eight percentage points and they had that pegged about right but the other cases.

It was in the opposite direction in 1988 for instance Michael Dukakis was way -- of George H.

W.

Bush.

Yes this is amazing Michael Dukakis led.

Vice President Bush by fourteen percentage points in June of 1988.

And of course president.

Bush the 41.

Actually won the election in -- near landslide with 53 and a half percent of the vote in November just a complete turnaround.

All right so there are a lot of voters out there is saying if these polls don't matter why do we take so many of them.

Well because of we have to fill the time between the help -- and November John.

That's one important reason and I think it's also useful.

To Trace what happens during the campaign.

What happens when it happens why does that happen you have to take polls all the way along to really see the story unfold.

And it's it's also useful because it tells you which groups in general are backing the candidate hey I can tell you today.

-- -- men will end up voting for Mitt Romney in November and women will end up voting for Barack Obama November.

We just don't know the percentages will it be a landslide among men for a Romney or the opposite among women for Barack Obama.

We'll have to wait and see that you can at least see the -- beings and the way they're leaning in the population.

And it's all for the campaigns about trying to shrink some of those percentages of -- we can eventually come out on top.

Larry Stabenow from exactly Virginia Larry thank you.

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