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Chris Stirewalt, Carl Cameron and Tom Bevan discuss the WIsconsin Recall results.
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And that is not what President Obama wanted to see last night that -- Wisconsin governor Scott Walker.
Winning his recall election and getting to serve out his term until 2014.
And this is our flag and I'm -- -- -- and welcome back.
The Wisconsin where we have been having a fantastic time this week covering this recall election.
And right now we're at -- -- industries.
Which is being very hospitable -- -- that today they had an event with Governor Walker.
Who wasted no time.
As soon as he was -- with its victory getting -- -- essentially on the campaign trail to talk to voters and he says that it -- the state.
And move ahead there's a big election that's coming up in just 21 weeks and what -- what happened here have to do -- that.
-- -- the exit polls so wrong why was this stuff so confusing what's going on.
Let's talk about that.
We have -- -- cast of characters with no we will -- of great information -- Carl Cameron will be with -- congressman from -- here will be with -- we've got all of that stuff for you but let's talk to Tom -- He's our friend you read it that real clear politics dot com we steal your polling data and we're always glad to have you down.
-- you if you Chris.
And so when we look at this election I wrote today the power -- And pardon me for the shameless plug that's about to occur which you can get by following me on Twitter at -- firewall.
Bad.
For the president he's had a very rough.
Opening ten weeks of this general election and then -- -- this up in Wisconsin where walker didn't just win he won by nine points.
He got.
He's the -- -- share of union households support.
It did much better than expected that's not a great way to cap off this opening a third of the presidential campaign.
-- I mean I don't think there's any way you can sort of spin what happened to Wisconsin yet last night did as good news for either the Democratic Party or the president United States and it was.
It was -- pretty significant vote I mean.
Obviously the White House stayed away from -- but but Democrats labor.
You know they threw everything they had.
At this race and and obviously Republicans did to an interesting thing was despite this sixty million that was bad overall -- time.
The results were almost a carbon copy of the 2010 vote I mean.
Walker ran about the same as he did among all this -- you mentioned union households he won what men overwhelmingly.
Lost women slightly.
But that that the big difference was there there's 2.4 million people turned out yesterday which was above that that's when he ten level.
Me and that was what bumped his number up from I think he won and by five points when he candidate to the seven point 20 my last night.
And Tom.
In this exit poll there -- a lot of questions about why what accidents that it was wrong it was wrong it wasn't predictive.
And the reason that the exit poll wasn't -- it's something that we see on Election Day over and over again.
Exit both generally and to have a slight democratic -- and just because the behavior of voters his -- and people don't know that's.
Are a lot of people may not know this is that what all exit polls are are balls they're people who stand outside a polling places and talk to voters as they come out and ask them.
And Republicans tend to be less willing.
To participate in that the Democrats right.
That's right in this is that look this is on this -- off for a long time they they actually you know they're used to be this it was called the DNS it was.
An aggregate thing that all the networks put money to fund and and that.
Exit polls for the national election they turn out to be terribly -- they went back and redid the whole thing.
And we see the election poll at the exit polls even in the primaries weren't very predictive.
You know you get this first batch numbers it's from people who voted up until 5 o'clock they still hold another batch of voters easily come in.
You know after work perhaps.
And so it they just haven't done a good job of giving us that that final outcomes and that's why I think it's kind of curious that.
You know the Obama campaign continues to -- this this number for the exit poll that.
You know the people who voted for walker would vote 53% that's not necessarily -- -- argument they they but about.
At this point kind of all -- have from last night to hang their hat on.
Well and that's the thing is that.
If the exit.
Bulls were.
Showing hey.
-- a -- race essentially and walker won by nine and obviously your point that throws a lot of question on to the advantage for President Obama.
Right and look even if you.
-- -- -- Obama the 53% from the exit polls which again you know I wouldn't necessarily give it.
That's three points less than he ran in Wisconsin four years ago and if that's the case nationally if he's running free points behind where he was running.
In -- you look at some of these swing states like Virginia North Carolina Ohio Florida he'd be losing all those -- or in some cases -- -- it would be.
This would -- coin toss election and that's I think that's what's got.
The folks here at Chicago very concerned about what happened last night Wisconsin.
I'm I'm sure that's right and now as -- the wisdom of the president's choice.
To not come here.
We added debate on the panel last night about whether it was good for the president to sort of jump over this this contest and not invest himself too heavily edit.
And it looks like it looked like to me that there's a short term positive in this -- that.
President avoids putting too much political capital in here.
But in the long term doesn't this reinforce the notion among Democrats that the president -- -- -- He does he's not all in for everybody in the party.
Maybe I mean I I could -- -- I think the prudent thing for Obama what was to stay away Eminem I think.
You know they looked at this race.
And he does have a good track record of parachuting in moving to vote at all there were literally no undecided voters in Wisconsin -- -- audio did.
The battle lines have been drawn and I'm sure they looked at the internal polling and saw that this wasn't even that close it was a five to seven point race which is what.
The public polls -- and decided look it's not gonna do any any good for him to go in there and it might in -- do some harm so.
It was the right thing right call for them to stay away -- he'll be able to go back to Wisconsin trying to reenergize the base the thing yet to be worried about of course is that.
You know Democrats and Wisconsin are so demoralized by this they've been they've been at this for two years it's been nonstop political hand to hand combat there that -- That they're just dispirited and and they -- reenergize before November and that puts Wisconsin at the -- -- if you worried about.
Tom -- and he's very good as an Internet thanks Tom.
You -- Chris thank you.
Okay let's keep the conversation going but let's -- -- -- a little bit let's go let's let's pull this airplane up to about 30000 feet.
And get a look at really where we are at a 13 of the way through the general election process.
At the point of this -- Had everything else and the guy who has the best periscope on all of this stuff.
-- campaign girl Cameron Carl how's everybody back in these days.
I'll look tired and certainly on the democratic -- -- a little downbeat.
No question about it Democrats are dispirited about what happened last night and we were just hearing about that in the president's decision to.
Contribute -- tweak to this campaign in the night before the actual vote.
Has left an awful lot of big labor types and levels around the country a little disappointed -- think that was exactly the kind of hope and change blitz kind of campaign.
Recognize that Obama is capable of delivering.
-- just didn't do it after having said that he would stand up and union rights and and help labor.
Fight back against Walker's.
So lot of problems among Democrats -- President Obama as a consequence of this and for Romney he has both.
Actual evidence of growth and infrastructure in Wisconsin.
And the Victor.
The governor of Wisconsin Scott Walker what is already sort of sharing the spoils -- Romney on this morning a box of frozen last night saying that.
Yes this is a message this is an agenda that can resonate across the country smaller government.
Fiscal responsibility.
Balanced budgets and balance labor rights.
All those things seem to have prevailed last night pretty effectively.
And the Democrats had tried to get a repudiation of -- instead they see themselves being repudiated Romney's gonna do everything he -- to amplify an -- that around the country.
Just in Wisconsin.
The fact that the Republican Party and big outside money made it possible for walker.
And others to build a big big voting -- they got four million new names in a state that doesn't even register voters by party.
The all those walker headquarters that were set up across the state of Wisconsin those are going to be badger state Romney headquarters now for the remaining part of -- general election so.
Romney's ten runners got a shot at those ten electoral votes in Wisconsin.
Let's not forget.
This is a state that hasn't voted Republican presidential primary since -- presidential campaign since the sixties.
So there is an opportunity here a strong one really for Republicans to come back and compete in a state where President Obama thought that he could probably coast.
It was leaning blue -- thousand needing more in the middle.
Now call you've been covering presidential politics.
-- people you've gotten since people use dial up notice.
When we're at this point in the race I've basically estimated today that -- looking at -- thirty weak general election season.
We're ten weeks now give us the Carl Cameron's dive you -- your stand what's the real contour of the race a third of the way through.
Well -- 82 days away from the Republican Convention.
And another seven another ten weeks from that point to the general election.
Post Memorial Day pre Labor Day for the president to be essentially -- a dead even tie in the polls may be up a pointer to in the real clear politics average of national polls.
And with the battleground states increasingly tight.
It's looking harder.
You know folks like to play sort of Angry Birds and friend for words with friends on there and -- hand held.
In my business the -- thing to do is to send around Scott's still stores of the latest Electoral College map and how you can get it to a 169 to once that's 2269 at 269 tied it's that close so for this to be unfolding now suggests that.
The runner for the Republican Convention may see an earlier a play announced nominee Romney may pick his running mate sooner trying to -- -- it.
Karen sort of command more of -- the message.
And the Obama campaign is gonna have to get increasingly tough.
The idea that this has gotten nasty to this point is a gross underestimation of where we're going to be at the following at the end point.
It is going to get really really hard because of mr.
Obama -- left with little more than trying to decimate.
Mitt Romney in terms of any possible electability.
The -- -- the Obama campaign has to disqualify Mitt Romney as a potential president and as a consequence it's gonna get very very bitter.
Romney has the benefit of a whole stream.
Of economic reports that suggest the Obama agenda is not working.
He has to go -- every single day and say.
I'm not rooting for a lousy economy on route to change it and you the American people have to elect me to replace the Obama agenda and right now.
It certainly did pretty well Wisconsin.
Okay so in terms.
The lesson that you that the Obama campaign because it it's certainly look Karl.
But a lot of times in these last ten weeks.
That there were moments where the Obama campaign was not as advertised these guys are supposed to be.
Fleet feet nimble.
Smart no mistakes we've seen some errors we've seen some -- and the president accidental stuff but also seemingly some -- some strategic errors.
What are they going to do to get the ship -- get back on track and get this election moving in the direction they want.
Sure people are close to the president of actually hurt his fairly explicit views on this say that mr.
Obama still thinks that his position is better as the incumbent president.
And with the numbers tied.
He has control of the office and the benefits of incumbency are great he still thinks he's in good shape.
But mr.
Obama recognizes that the international the global economy is exceedingly volatile.
What happens in Europe what happens in -- Could very much undermined any potential recovery here those types of uncontrollable.
Outside the president's realm.
Could really turn this thing significantly they are worried the Obama White House and Obama for America the campaign headquarters in Chicago.
Recognizes that this is going to be incredibly close.
It wasn't supposed to be this way for months they thought that Mitt Romney would win the nomination but he'd be -- up by the Republican primary process and he would be easily disqualified.
It turns out that much of the Obama campaign's attacks on Romney's business career.
Have backfired and divided the Democratic Party.
That is not what was supposed to happen hope and change is supposed to be about unifying the left.
Instead it's increasingly splintered and again you saw last night Wisconsin.
Carl Cameron he is also very good -- -- the Internet Carl we thank you very much we'll see -- in DC tomorrow I hope.
