Battleground Friday: Michigan Matchup
Chris Stirewalt breaks down the Wolverine State heading into the 2012 general election.
- Duration 10:42
- Date Jun 8, 2012
Chris Stirewalt breaks down the Wolverine State heading into the 2012 general election.
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That was -- Wisconsin governor Scott Walker declaring victory claiming victory in his recall effort.
And it's certainly something Republicans say are gonna help them as they tied for republicanism.
-- rolling through the upper midwest that they hope carries over to Michigan.
And this is power play welcome back to battleground Friday.
As we look at death count Michigan and unlikely kind of swing state for Republicans is going to play out Debbie dingle is here and she's obviously -- -- from Michigan and she's super cool.
We have -- the opportunity.
To sneak into Studio One and use the big board to break down the way Michigan's going to vote and where the votes are in Michigan so let's take a look at that and then you can tell me what I got wrong and I can literally take.
It's another battleground Friday here on power play as we go through -- dozen swing states that will get to the side.
This fall's election.
And we're having a lot of fun with -- we did North Carolina before but now.
Which is going to be tough for President Obama now look let's look at a tough pick.
For Mitt Romney in the Republicans and that's Michigan it.
Now there is reason to believe that Michigan and this is how by the way Mitt Romney did in the primaries here I pulled out a win at a time when Rick Santorum.
Was still surging.
But -- the reason that Republicans think that they might be able to pull off something in Michigan -- -- from here he's from Oakland County right down here outside of Detroit.
That's where he grew up Bloomfield Hills.
Out here that's where he grew up his dad was the governor his mom -- percent it why not why could -- -- -- the reasoning.
Who was originally thought not to be able went was that the status -- so much since the 1960s and that the heavy concentration of votes here -- heavily democratic Detroit area just makes it basically impossible.
Let's talk about a couple of things that happen -- and they have to do with the changing demographics of state when the auto industry in 2008.
Not about the same time as this election was taking place between Barack Obama and John McCain.
Absolutely imploded -- had been suffering for years unionized auto companies have been suffering for years and then the bottom absolutely fell out and we -- we know what happened the government nationalized.
Bailed out these companies.
And before returning them to cause -- private sector status along the way guess what happened this whole part of the state -- here.
And this has -- -- Into the north.
Is a big for this too but this whole part of the state where something like 70% of the population of Michigan levs got drastically be populated you've seen the pictures you've seen signs.
Now the consequence was.
Because most of the rest of the state is Republican.
Much like Illinois with Chicago.
This is a Republican state with a democratic city and it and that happens to flip it.
The other direction so.
If you think about it this way.
The way that Michigan's gonna vote.
Is going to look very different in 2000 it let's show you how was in 2004 because this is what we would expect.
The map to go to win Georgia -- bush and John -- -- where Grand Rapids is that's a pretty big city that can't count me out there that's that's big lot of votes out there so look at that.
You see that this part of the -- supposed to be Republican.
It's probably believes that if the state reverts to form and goes back to hey.
And they've read cake with a creamy blue filling.
Instead of the other way around that he has a decent shot to do it.
And the reason he thanks again as you have to -- population on this site and then out here this part of the state is intensely conservative intensely Republican.
A lot of Dutch reform church members social conservatives Santorum voters that are -- -- -- almost pulled it off this part of the state which used to have a lot of democratic votes and you see that in 2008 that there's a considerable number of -- the first congressional district up here.
Used to have a lot of democratic votes.
Not so much anymore it's changed it switched.
And is now represented by conservatives across the western part of the state so Romney hoping is that because these areas have had more stable -- Population has been more stable out here that he can get Michigan close -- remember.
-- 2010 the Republicans took the state by storm.
They got eight Republican governor we have a Republican legislature they've enacted some reforms.
-- changes I should say to the way government unions work the dynamic in Michigan has changed.
Obama believes that the state will revert to form -- huge minority turnout in Detroit for him.
And heavy union presence.
What will carry it over the one friend but Ronnie thinks he has a way to pull off a win in his native state.
Maybe well and certainly.
We know that they were watching.
Over here in Wisconsin very closely what happened with that recall election.
So -- will be watching to you can take that to the bank and that's a look at how Michigan might vote come November.
Will certainly be keeping our eye on that.
You should keep your eye on all of our battleground states as we work through and show you how the big board says November is gonna look.
I don't know who that guy was but he made a lot of interest in points about two the state of Michigan.
The birthplace of power play part of the ability to I asked for a -- in Pontiac in the shadow of the silverdome.
But Debbie dingle so the question is this.
In the state of Michigan there's not a lot of Republican organization.
In Wisconsin they have a very active longstanding Republican Party but the Republican Party in Michigan -- been on its heels for so long.
For a really a couple of decades and since they've had a very strong Republican Party in the state.
If Mitt Romney -- -- in Michigan.
They're gonna have to spend a lot of money up there aren't that.
But they are the effect here is they have a lot of money -- enter that every day off as quick as we seek.
Now they hit some -- I didn't see the governor is it moderate who does not come out of the Republican Party -- doesn't have.
The kind of organization that we -- talking about we've got some members of congress who do have some strong organizations that want Carter.
-- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- Photocopied signatures every time you want to run for office in Michigan you have to -- a signature ballot test and he he fielded and flourish in emerging fashion.
He is seen it was the core area that they need to keep it turns out that a duty to turn -- votes for -- herself.
I've never seen -- -- -- disgusted in my life targeted at somebody they did pick a consensus candidate there yeah but day in terms of organization was a major plus for Republicans.
Okay so for the president basically heard the argument there.
The whole name of the game and it's.
That maximizing turnout.
Correct maximizing turnout in Detroit Oakland County the whole goal is you've got minority voters you have this you know the president's gonna -- Detroit metro.
-- -- metro even including the -- and suburbs probably 70%.
Because it's illegal in the industry even throwing in this had happened -- and the -- -- so obviously it.
-- -- flipped -- sitting there is another question for Mitt Romney and this is where it gets very interesting as.
He's gonna do okay and Oakland County affluent suburb but when you look at a place like McComb county.
Where there are some Reagan Democrats but these are some guys who Mitt Romney has -- capital Mitt Romney has a hard time talking to.
Can Mitt Romney steal any votes in places like -- com.
If he can't think.
I want it -- -- to understand -- distinct minority I think which is more competitive than many people do that.
I think by the -- this is an anti incumbent here I don't think it's an entire Republican Democrat I think people are fed up I think they're still scared.
-- doing better than other states are doing we.
Pat the worst part of this currently economics -- -- are starting to recover faster but people are still angry and they're still scared you don't have consumer confidence.
So in the end it's still about jobs it's gonna be included they trust now I think Mitt Romney -- -- strategic mistake.
Instead of fixing himself didn't have that for presidential primary February he double down on the auto.
So -- and this is that this is a huge issue in Michigan and certainly in places like in places like McComb county is Mitt Romney said.
We -- -- let -- bankruptcy happened we're gonna have to blow up these companies that these companies have blown themselves up Ford for not -- of course excluded the General Motors and Chrysler have got to go through this pain and then be reassembled on the other side President Obama said well we're gonna we're gonna pump some money and we're gonna hold it together and then we're gonna hocus -- -- new companies gonna come out on the other side.
And how how's that gonna play -- Well I think it is an issue that.
If you watched grow I mean -- two years ago less than 50% of people even thought that that was a good idea that President Obama done in Michigan now.
Voters do believe that it was the right thing to do I think that.
Mean how -- probably could have handled it much better when he was in Michigan talking about it instead of saying.
You know -- I still have the right thing that President Obama should help him now where it's just sketchy very bad it just -- saying that president filed.
Which he had suggested has created a credibility issue.
-- clintonian -- there is some clintonian parsing going on now by the Romney campaign as it relates to the auto bailout we like part of it we didn't like part of it it's complicated.
And you know something we're talking about before daddy is.
Four Romney for.
So for Obama he is North Carolina that we talked about last week that it's so tempting while medium gonna go in there but some of these places can turn into quicksand could Michigan be quicksand for Ronnie go in and then and then you end up wasting a lot of time in resource.
I think that Mitt Romney's gonna focus on Michigan -- -- he wants to whether he can we do not tie up a lot president.
-- resource is there -- complicated state got to be HD congressional elections I think it's good because.
Debbie -- we thank you get the last word from DSL senior it's funny how we -- these calls on states battleground today does that mean that in the future there will be battle ground reactors.
Reenacting this election over and over again.
Pray god that you are wrong -- -- senior because I don't I don't think anybody want to play me.
Out there Debbie -- we thank you so much for being with us we thank you for being with us and also for a great birthday party yesterday you guys are just to kind.
And now as we like to do every day we want to leave you with the word from our friend -- Us.
-- -- are raving lunatic he's psychotic who comes in the door.
And makes no sense you you can use say he's speaking in word salad this is a word salad with -- in a grip on it.